The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

[TheShadowyFeminist]

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Latest polling has them close to 50% on constituency and this is above where they were in 2016. The headline of List at 42% comes because some transfer to Green for 2nd vote currently.

Alba strategy won't work if SNP voters choose not to transfer for the List. Hard to see why the wouldn't though. Worst case would be Alba don't pick up seats but damage Green transfers.

Ross Greer on Sky news doing his best to trash the new party, and sounding a bit panicked to me. At pains to point out they are pro independence too. Could this wipe out the greens (and the trans bollocks with them)?

All in all this is the ultimate throwing down of the gauntlet to get NS to bury the hatchet for the good if Indy. Also starts to politically neuter some of the HCB women's issues ironically.

Just hearing AS now sounds like he will hope to trade sorting out Separation of Powers, Civil Service and Role of Crown Office and forswear direct role in Govt. So looking to add some much needed probity.

I'm going out for a bit but I will play with some numbers tonight

What regions are likely to be most interesting, do you think?

Don’t do it Joanna!

@StatisticallyChallenged

I'm going out for a bit but I will play with some numbers tonight

What regions are likely to be most interesting, do you think?

Edinburgh Central I think. I don't think Robertson will get enough votes to win the seat. The competition isn't that great but he's got to gain votes & I honestly can't see him doing it.

This is nuts! Who is going to vote for a party with AS at the helm, if anything it will do SNP more favours. Could work in favour for the independence movement though

@Belindabelle

Don’t do it Joanna!

Surely you can't say you're taking time out for health reasons one day and join a new party the next?!

Any Region where SNP currently hold all constituencies. So Glasgow, Mid Scotland and Fife, Central. Probably also Highlands and Islands as LibDems vote is so concentrated in Orkney and Shetland and rest is SNP held.

South Scotland, NE Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, Lothian and West Scotland are anyone's guess and very difficult to vote tactically.

Shadowy Alba aren't running for constituency seats.

I don’t know what to make of it all. The strategy makes some sense though and I’m glad of changes that stops it all getting too cosy and stale.

@SempreSuiGeneris

Shadowy Alba aren't running for constituency seats.

I'm talking at cross purposes. Sorry!

SNP statement
mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1375458608566112260/photo/1

I'm hearing good things about the women candidates standing for Alba. They're holding a women only conference too -

Tweet

AS just talked in ballpark terms of 90 SNP/Alba seats so in line with my fag packet calculation above. Now that I've looked at Regional breakdown (in reply to stats) I think that's probably at the top end.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]SNP statement
mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1375458608566112260/photo/1[/quote]
So they've no intention of running a positive campaign then.

This'll backfire I think. If they spend their time focusing on attacking Salmond, they look weak & don't get any positive messages of their own across.

I love how they imply the knew it would happen yet have lost 3 SNP members, to of them selected candidates.

I think they're more rattled than they will admit to.

I don't think they've any reason to be rattled as I can't imagine many people would vote for him due to recent conduct

Place marking

I think if anyone seriously thinks no one would vote for Salmond, then you don't know much about Scottish politics!

I'm not a Salmond fan at all, but I'm well aware he still commands a lot of support despite what he's been accused of & been through as a result.

I suppose we have to wait and see how popular he actually is! Could be a boost for independence if he does somehow do well so that's something.

If you are an anti AS Indy supporter then rock and hard place is the problem for your 2nd vote. It will definitely be wasted if you use it on the SNP. Somewhat renders all the furore about SNP List selection completely pointless.

Assume WM SNP MPs will split after the Holyrood election if Alba make any sort of showing. This would likely depose Blackford and also make Airdrie and Shotts by-election interesting.

Interesting candidates - Cynthia Guthrie who resigned from the NEC on principle when Murrell wouldn’t open the books, and Eva Comrie who is an amputee and topped the Mid Scotland and Fife list presumably on the BAME/Disability in top slots policy.

I think it will be good for Holyrood to have a pro-Indy party in opposition to the SNP. Hope this doesn’t end up in a Change UK-style debacle though...

Possible and fascinating that SNP / Alba could get 90 out of 129 seats on 50%ish vote share with 50% turnout and then Lose another IndyRef with 80% turnout.

I'd really like to see Joanna Cherry stay involved in public life - what's going on with her at the minute?