The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

[TheShadowyFeminist]

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@Graffitiqueen

I'm sure I read somewhere that the person at the top of the list would likely have pressure put on them to step aside in favour of Nicola if it ever came to that. Think the person top of the list is one of the Glasgow girls and Nicola fan so likely to comply.

They might not even get a list seat though - with the vote counts from last election then dropping a constituency seat would get them a list seat but there's not a lot in it with just over 500 votes between SNP getting the last list seat and Labour taking it instead.

With Alba on the scene that may get messy, as even if people don't vote Alba I think there's an awareness building that SNP 2 in Glasgow is a bit of a wasted vote so I've seen a fair bit on social media advocating SNP 1 Green 2 in Glasgow (not from Greens specifically). Greens are only 645 votes behind SNP for that last list seat too so it wouldn't take much for them to take it.

Oh I'm sure she wouldn't be left seat-less, but how would it look?

Bad enough to get beaten in the constituency but then to have to push aside people that you've put in the positions at the top (because of your own policy) to do so? Not good.

It probably won't come to that though...

@Ianrankinfan

riverrunning I agree with you . ... to use the Covid money to fund permanent spending commitments eg extending free school meals and bus travel , for example , is madness as these will need to be funded eventually from the core budget . We will need higher taxes to pay for this and /or more cuts.

This is the definition of insanity IMO. Some mental health funding (which could potentially have a temporary element over the next year or two as people readjust and address lockdown issues, maybe, although I think it will be needed longer term.) But using it to fund costs which will be ongoing is just nuts.

And another high profile defection to Alba.

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeons-former-aide-quits-snp-for-alex-salmonds-new-alba-party-3184893

Jim Eadie ex SNP MSP for anyone who doesn't want to waste a click.

Plus the increased taxes so far are making no kind of dent in the deficit. I despair that anyone rational could look at these numbers and think independence is the answer for right now, or that the SNP know what they're doing (other than over promising in a way that is only sustainable with the Barnett formula).

riverrunning. Totally agree .

@riverrunning

Plus the increased taxes so far are making no kind of dent in the deficit. I despair that anyone rational could look at these numbers and think independence is the answer for right now, or that the SNP know what they're doing (other than over promising in a way that is only sustainable with the Barnett formula).

Lots of my SNP acquaintances just insist that Scotland is actually not subsided in any way, and could fund everything itself.

I always struggle to get actual figures and costings.

www.holyrood.com/news/view,ifs-say-barnett-formula-leaves-spending-in-scotland-30-higher-per-person-than-in-england

There is generally a resounding "it's not true" whenever any numbers are produced showing that Scotland is actually well funded.

I note that Kate Forbes pounced on the austerity funding cuts. I wonder how we'd have funded the financial crisis as an independent country - would we have been able to save the banks? It seems very unlikely.

www.ifs.org.uk/events/1910

I really wouldn’t have a problem with higher taxes.

Low tax societies fall apart at the seams. Look at the way infrastructure is literally crumbling in the US due to underinvestment. Or how years of underfunding the education system there is affecting people’s ability for both critical and constructive thinking.

The mantra that higher taxes are automatically bad is very destructive and severely limits our ability to thrive as a society.

The problem I have with higher taxes is the sheer incompetence of how our taxes are spent by the government. Piddling around with income tax brackets at the higher end will never generate the kind of money required to fix our infrastructure. And even if we were to go all out and generate significant tax revenue, it would get wasted on bloody independence rallies, coaching sessions for bad MSPs hauled up in front of committees and god knows what other ill advised “projects”. None of it will go towards sensible education improvement (honestly? I fuckjng iPad for everyone?? What waste of money! How about some more teachers? Or some schools that don’t fall down because you outsourced the building to cowboys?)
Chronic mismanagement of tax revenues is why I resent higher taxes. If it was spent wisely, I’d absolutely be willing to pay more. It’s a viscous circle.

Are we a low tax society though? It's hard to draw straight comparisons due to the complexity of different systems but I don't think we're especially low and AFAIK we're a fair chunk above the USA. I think we might be on the lower end for Western Europe but on a worldwide basis not so much.

Agree with all that. However it's difficult to have any sort of rational discussion about deficits and debt in the current climate. The UK Govt is being completely duplicitous in its financing of the Covid response otoh through QE (aka printing money) while claiming the need for fiscal prudence otoh whenever it suits. Not that the US or EU are being any more honest. Add in all the cronyism and back handers and you can see why Scottish voters surmise that since its all funny money anyway we all afford exactly what we choose...

Wry smile from me last night when they were discussing the child payment and child poverty in general. Roughly 60k children were born per year up to about 2010. The figure in Scotland has been in steady decline for a decade and in 2020 it was 46k. The 46k figure is underlying trend pre pandemic due to falling fertility rate. The trend has been somewhat lagged and obscured by ageing motherhood and positive net migration. My bet for 2021 would be closer to 40k due to the pandemic.

If you don't / can't prioritise child poverty in the under 6 age group when the number in need of support per year has dropped by over a 1/4 when do you?

This scale of decline supercharged by all the closed border rhetoric could have huge economic impacts.

(The number of children per year was around 95k in the 60s and previously and dropped to 65k by the 70s. Birth rate currently hovering below 1.5. Net emigration was a feature prior to this but was broadly neutral till the early 2000s when trend turned to positive net immigration from RoUK and RoW. Estimated to be around 800k negative for UK this year and assume Scotland will have at least a proportionate share of this).

Lots of frustration on twitter than UBI was put in the too difficult basket last night but for me this is far more prescient. In a furlough World UBI is just rearranging the deckchairs.

That's a lot of tax to pay from 2.3 million people to make up the shortfall if Scotland was an independent country.

There is always the options of higher VAT. CGT, IHT, VED and duty on luxury goods including stamp duty on homes.
But higher VAT would hit tourism, CGT investment opportunities.

Then currency issues could be thrown into the mix.. (Turkey just devalued the lira by 15%)

I'm not convinced that any of the indy parties have a strategy.

The biggest challenge with significant tax increases in an independent Scotland will be the larger country just to the south.

I get approached fairly regularly for opportunities south of the border anyway. My employer, and every company I've worked for since I was 18, have offices down south. With the increase in WFH too from an employment perspective it would be very easy for me to move. Covid will have made this even easier for many people as companies have been forced to make the jump towards remote working.

I'd honestly expect that a fairly large proportion of higher earners ( I don't mean millionaires btw) in the private sector would have options for moving south, and for doing so in a way which wouldn't necessarily create a vacancy in Scotland.

I'd honestly expect that a fairly large proportion of higher earners ( I don't mean millionaires btw) in the private sector would have options for moving south, and for doing so in a way which wouldn't necessarily create a vacancy in Scotland.

100% agree with this. While Scotland is our home and where we were born and brought up, we have lived abroad and in England in the past and both would be willing to move our family again if independence became a reality.

Agree with that. Even suspect tax changes at higher rates will start to impact on higher echelon public sector before long. eg Nurses just got a preferential payrise while doctors are stuck with higher taxes and no pay rise.

Tasmina Sheikh for Alba in Central Scotland.

Latest Alba candidate is heavily predicted Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh. Top of List in Central Scotland.

Yep

@SempreSuiGeneris

Latest Alba candidate is heavily predicted Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh. Top of List in Central Scotland.

Another top quality candidate.

On 15 January 2019, she was found guilty of professional misconduct by theScottish Solicitors' Discipline Tribunaland fined £3,000.The Tribunal found that Ahmed-Sheikh and fellow solicitor Alan Mickel had shown "disregard for the rules" in running a trust and had a conflict of interest when they borrowed money from it. In addition to their fines, the pair also had to pay the expenses of theLaw Society of Scotlandwho had brought the case forward

@SempreSuiGeneris

Latest Alba candidate is heavily predicted Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh. Top of List in Central Scotland.

Nobody saw that coming (ahem)

Even the Herald starting to scratch its head about the wisdom of rejoining the EU post Indy.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/19200937.scottish-independence-scotland-faces-hard-border-england-10-year-wait-eu/

[quote SempreSuiGeneris]Even the Herald starting to scratch its head about the wisdom of rejoining the EU post Indy.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/19200937.scottish-independence-scotland-faces-hard-border-england-10-year-wait-eu/[/quote]
This doesn't surprise me. Independence with both sides in the EU would have been considerably easier (not easy...easier) but with one country in and one out then Britain would need a border which would create a huge number of issues.

I can see the Mumsnet posts now when folk start getting customs charges on stuff ordered from England though!