Tieriffic or tierifying ... who knows!

[dancemom]

Quick title as last thread about to fill up ....

Scottishskifun I hope you feel better soon. I had it similarly badly for 2 weeks and its the most painful, uncomfortable virus I've ever had. Very different to anything else. But I made a full recovery after a few weeks and I'm sure you will too.

@StarryEyeSurprise

So,looking at new cases in Scotland, anyone else think we're now seeing the effect of the Rangers parties?

Eh no, I think it's mostly more 'detection' of 'cases' from more testing. And I think it's utterly meaningless.

Our first vaccine appointments came through yesterday. Both early 50s in Edinburgh. Quite excited and hopefully this means there'll be a big boost in the vaccination percentages soon.

But then annoyed as Scotland doesn't give you a record of a vaccine so will be no use if foreign travel opens up later in the year.

We had a couple round last night, came inside in the conservatory rather than huddling round the chiminea. She has been an absolute stickler for the rules up to now, but people are just giving up, particularly in Edinburgh where even if our numbers are low we'll still be punished for proximity to West Lothian.

That’s good @rookiemere though annoying there’s no record. I’m only getting the jag (today) so I can get out!!

Sounds like you had a nice night😊

Thanks @WouldBeGood I do feel guilty as I'm a naturally law abiding person, but even from a logic perspective if we're going to transmit covid to each other, it must be almost as likely that we'll do it huddling round the chiminea outside as we would being fairly distanced in a ventilated conservatory.

Yes, that makes sense. I know what you mean about guilt though, I felt a moment of guilt when I had DD in my car, although I then remembered it was for an actual permitted reason! They’ve done a number on us.

• 563 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 25,519 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 2.4% of these were positive
• 6 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 26 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 283 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 2,358,807 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 294,714 have received their second dose

694,959 new vaccinations registered in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 344,008 1st doses / 250,962 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 35,975 / 14,900
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 23,735 / 11,080
NI 7,587 / 6,712

Thanks @dancemom
Case numbers looking bit better today

I wonder if they'll get any lower or if this is kinda the baseline now.

It's kinda frustrating that we didn't have the testing capacity over summer to see if these figures would reflect better the genuine situation then. I read that West Lothian is having huge levels of testing- so I think that's making their levels look far worse relatively.
I just hope that the influx of testing with any small outbreak, and the subsequent boost in reported numbers, doesn't push all central belt areas perpetually into tier 3.

I was looking at the data for the neighbourhoods in my council, East Dunbartonshire, one of the smaller areas. Daily numbers of cases here have gone up from around 6 per day approximately 3 weeks ago to around 12 per day for the past 10ish days. Usually there are only cases in the same neighbourhoods with some neighbourhoods reporting no cases for ages. I wonder that that's about? There are schools in all the neighbourhoods.

@speedtalker

It's kinda frustrating that we didn't have the testing capacity over summer to see if these figures would reflect better the genuine situation then. I read that West Lothian is having huge levels of testing- so I think that's making their levels look far worse relatively. I just hope that the influx of testing with any small outbreak, and the subsequent boost in reported numbers, doesn't push all central belt areas perpetually into tier 3.

I was wondering this too. I think the ONS data, which tests everyone (in their survey!) regardless of symptoms is the best indicator, but that only started in Scotland in the autumn. The most recent data from that suggests the population incidence of covid is roughly where we were in early October in Scotland. But of course we've basically had some form of restriction since then, so not a great benchmark for freedom! The English ons data is still showing their levels (currently lower than Scotland) to be higher than the summer though. Possibly because of the superspready version we have now compared to the summer(?)

My feeling is we may be at this 500ish cases per day level for a while (or a bit higher as things open up in the next few weeks... But hopefully not much higher), until the majority of the adult population are vaccinated. If cases are persisting in workplaces where people can't wfh, care settings, schools and so on, there isn't really anywhere where we can cut contacts further. They are already reduced to the absolute minimum society can function on (and obviously that is debatable!). So I can't see potential for them to decrease further until those people who can't avoid being in contact with others are vaccinated, so reducing their likelihood of passing it on if they come into contact.

Of course, IANAV(irologist) so I may well be talking balls and there is a drop off a cliff next week for some reason!

Yes, good points.

Scottish hospitalisations are approaching summer levels, so is that a good indicator?

The patches of incidence makes me reflect that is this now a disease that is infecting people who can't avoid it, so it's a government failing to protect people? Is it staying in processing/ packaging/ warehousing/ hospitals, so working age people,and then infecting their families and then on through school. If that's a case there's a real failing there.

Just have to hope infections now continue to mostly be an unpleasant disease and not so much death or long covid.

@speedtalker that's definitely true for my area all cases in my town are related to childcare settings and key workers. Not people attending houseparties.

I think the govt know there isn't much they can do about those types of settings nor do they advertise how many cases are related to health care settings.

There will also be a part of cases that do relate to parties etc (current Dundee uni casing point). But it is completely wrong to assume that all people who catch covid deserve it by their actions/behaviour which unfortunately a lot of people still seem to have because of the messaging given out!

Our families came from DS going to nursery. Nobody broke any rules and his nursery has every measure in place but it's still a virus at the end of the day. How many people manage a full winter without getting a cold in usual times.........

An asymptomatic testing centre is opening near us on Monday so I guess we'll all troop off there just in case.

Vaccine tomorrow though, super excited

How you feeling @Scottishskifun?

@UnderHisAye

How you feeling *@Scottishskifun*?

The steroids are helping relieve the burning and pressure in my lungs. Unfortunately I mistook that as being a bit better so tried to help my DH out with our toddler. Unfortunately this resulted in an asthma attack after walking 8 steps and my DH helping me back to bed and grabbing inhalers. I'm 34 with usually very controlled and mild asthma!

Now had to promise DH that I will stay in bed!

Stay in bed @Scottishskifun!

Glad the steroids are helping but you have to rest woman!

@UnderHisAye

An asymptomatic testing centre is opening near us on Monday so I guess we'll all troop off there just in case.

Vaccine tomorrow though, super excited

Asymptomatic test centre opening up here soon too. There's been 4 cases in Argyll and Bute in total in last 7 days. Wonder what difference the opening of it will make!

I know good old mum guilt was kicking in though!
Will be staying put from now on!

I'm thinking if the kids are negative then I'll send them to my parents' for a sleepover. Poor kids are on holiday and there's absolutely bugger all to do.

@UnderHisAye make sure you have a couple of bottles of wine in 🍷make the most of a children free night!
We all bloody deserve it after this slog!

I will toast you with my water or soup which I currently can't taste 😂

Oh no scottishskifun! Yes, you stay in bed - no guilt to be felt at all. Glad the steroids are helping a bit though. Hope the taste comes back soon

Ooooh - exciting vaccine daytrip under. Make the most of it. And yes, go for the wine and childfree days. I think everyone involved will like that.

We're wondering WTF to do over Easter. DS has agreed to be signed up to do some daily online music thing - that is how bored he is already. He will NEVER normally do his practice voluntarily... Our church Sunday school is starting again in person tomorrow. Outside. With 40mph winds and rain forecast - and parents are sent away to wander around the block for an hour because there isn't a service on in the church itself, with none of the many coffee shops in the area allowed to open. Mmmm - appealing. May give that one a miss.