The Tierany of Tiers

[dancemom]

Teirtastic times ahead ....

I'm frightened to think how rammed the hairdressers are going to be in the central belt when they are allowed to open again

I can't see how anyone on the islands could relate to the numbers being seen down here @MrsAmaretto. It's apples and oranges.

@MrsAmaretto unfortunately again the approach seems to be based on politics rather than data and numbers which really winds me up when the SG stand there and say it will be led by data.......

Shetland and Orkney should be level 0 with the occasional level 1. They have had persistent low to zero cases partly I think due to the Islanders mentality of looking after the community and pretty much people knowing what's happening in the community. So when the occasional outbreaks occur acting very fast way probably before track and trace identify everyone to isolate! (In a old job I spent a bit of time working in Shetland from April til Sept).

But if the SG let Shetland and Orkney out they would get faced with that's not fair from other low number areas on the mainland and some of the closer but smaller Islands. So it comes down to perception and potential votes rather than data!

[quote MrsAmaretto]@Lockdownbear yes, high percentage of older people. Common with other islands and rural areas. I think Western Isles have the largest % of their population vaccinated.

Yet Jason Leitch has said on the radio last week it’s too soon to reduce our restrictions? Funnily enough the elderly population are now back out there at cafes, hairdressers and having the odd visitor in their house! It was gale force 7 the last couple of nights - there’s no garden visiting here.[/quote]
Are your cafes and hairdressers open?

[quote Scottishskifun]@MrsAmaretto unfortunately again the approach seems to be based on politics rather than data and numbers which really winds me up when the SG stand there and say it will be led by data.......

Shetland and Orkney should be level 0 with the occasional level 1. They have had persistent low to zero cases partly I think due to the Islanders mentality of looking after the community and pretty much people knowing what's happening in the community. So when the occasional outbreaks occur acting very fast way probably before track and trace identify everyone to isolate! (In a old job I spent a bit of time working in Shetland from April til Sept).

But if the SG let Shetland and Orkney out they would get faced with that's not fair from other low number areas on the mainland and some of the closer but smaller Islands. So it comes down to perception and potential votes rather than data! [/quote]
Yes I agree. Shetland and certain other islands can definitely replicate the NZ model due to the distance and travel restrictions in a way the rest of Scotland can't

@StarryEyeSurprise Shetland and Orkney have remained in an adjusted tier 3 since boxing day.

Just copying my message from over on the thread about booking appointments, in case this is useful for anyone here:

There's a problem in the Lothians at the moment because there is a delay in people getting their appointment letters. So sometimes people are getting their letter on the day of their appointment, or even after it's supposed to have happened, so those appointments are then wasted.

I'm on an Edinburgh Facebook group that mentioned it, and gave the helpline number to ring if you think you've been missed / aren't sure if you should have heard yet.

I rang this morning and the very helpful man on the phone gave me the dates for my jag and dh's, and the reference numbers in case our letters don't arrive in time. We're both late 50s and have appointments now next week. Such a relief!

The number is 0800 030 8013. You need to pick option 2.

I was going to post about that @Lucienandjean but wasn't sure it was a hoax. Good to know that it's not. I'm 50 and I certainly don't want to harass them, but equally- actually not equally definitely more so - I don't want to miss my appointment.

Definitely not a hoax!

Not such good coronavirus figures today. Higher numbers than recently in Greater Glasgow, Lanarkshire and Ayrshire.

Still only 3.4% I think so it's not as alarming as it seems, I suppose. It still gives me a major sinking feeling though to see numbers going in the wrong direction.

The ONS survey (so random cross section whether they have symptoms or not) reports today that Scotland and Northern Ireland have a slightly increased prevalence of the virus the past week (which the BBC is calling a levelling off) while England and Wales are still dropping. Such things are inevitable as you open up a bit, and our schools did go back earlier - I expect England's prevalence will increase in the next couple of weeks too. I'm not sure it matters though as long as it doesn't translate into much higher hospitalisations and death.

Yeah, I think we'll need to carefully watch so see if the usual lag-followed-by-hospitalisations begins to happen.

@mibbelucieachwell

Not such good coronavirus figures today. Higher numbers than recently in Greater Glasgow, Lanarkshire and Ayrshire.

Hmmm I wonder what happened 5 days ago yesterday in that area...... Oh wait football numpties..... Coincidence purely though 😉

On another note - Jeanne Freeman is 67?! I wouldn't have guessed that.

682 people tested positive for Covid-19 on Thursday, which amounts to 3.4% of all tests.
Ms Freeman says its takes the total number of confirmed cases in Scotland to 208,429.
Of the new cases, 276 were in NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, 116 in NHS Lanarkshire and 102 in NHS Lothian.
The remaining cases were spread across eight other mainland health boards areas.
Ms Freeman also says 512 patients are in hospital with a confirmed case (down 13) and 38 people are being treated in intensive care (down two).
She adds that a further 17 people who tested positive in the previous 28 days have had their deaths registered, bringing the total under the daily measurement to 7,500.

@Scottishskifun unfortunately your probably right. But it won't be the folk that were out partying on the streets it will be the folk having a sneaky beer on their mates couch.
What can you say, I just hope they get better soon and don't affect hospital admissions, stopping us all moving forward.

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us

The ONS survey (so random cross section whether they have symptoms or not) reports today that Scotland and Northern Ireland have a slightly increased prevalence of the virus the past week (which the BBC is calling a levelling off) while England and Wales are still dropping. Such things are inevitable as you open up a bit, and our schools did go back earlier - I expect England's prevalence will increase in the next couple of weeks too. I'm not sure it matters though as long as it doesn't translate into much higher hospitalisations and death.

Some parts of England are also 'levelling off'. Parts of the south east I think.

JL saying they may change from making decisions by case numbers in the months ahead, and move to using hospitalisations and deaths. But for now case numbers is still the measurement we need to use.

Case numbers inextricably linked to mutations so we can't dismiss case numbers completely, he's saying.

Am hoping that the returns of children and young people to schools go well. Feels positive though!

@UnderHisAye

Yeah, I think we'll need to carefully watch so see if the usual lag-followed-by-hospitalisations begins to happen.

I think the hope would be that vaccinations are beginning to break this link, but we'll have to wait. I do worry that these higher figures will put paid to any bringing forward of easing.

But the numbers in hospital, and dying, are still currently falling which we need to take as a positive.

If we use deaths then what changes? People dying with Covid but not from Covid keep us locked up for even longer?!

JL saying they may change from making decisions by case numbers in the months ahead, and move to using hospitalisations and deaths.

I'm really pleased to hear this - it's in line with what Chris Whitty said that as vaccinations rise, case numbers become less important, and they will inevitably rise as we unlock, it's hospitalisations and deaths we need to watch then. Asymptomatic testing is also increasing which might be detecting more people carrying the virus cases that would never have tested before.

@UnderHisAye hmmm sounds like a bit of backtracking is going on and they might switch to using the English indications of how it's doing..... Maybe the SG is realising this isn't going to go away and longterm we can't impose restrictions for several years!

Positive case numbers are a useful indicator but even with the vaccination programme complete they would never be zero as you have under 16s as a factor so technically an area could possibly never move past a certain level as their would always be cases recorded.

@Beepbeeprichie

If we use deaths then what changes? People dying with Covid but not from Covid keep us locked up for even longer?!

Well with vaccination many many fewer people should die. So the link between cases-hospitalisations-deaths is broken.

A few weeks ago the active cases numbers for UK wide v Scotland were broadly similar and both were high. Now UK is sitting at 6% and Scotland at 9% which is obviously better than them both being at 30 something percent but I'm not sure why there is now such a disparity.

Different ways of counting?