Salmond v Sturgeon round 4. What next?

[Cismyfatarse]

New thread.

@Serg

I don’t understand this list thing, please could someone explain? Thanks

This is the lists for the second votes - so you play vote one for a named constituency MSP, and vote 2 you vote for the party. The party defines their own ranking list for this, random voters don't get a say.

The seats are then allocated using a proportional system (D'hondt) which decides how many of the regional seats each party gets. In most places SNP gets none/few because they have the constituency seats but in some they do - I think they have 3 in South of Scotland and 1 in H&I at the moment.

SNP passed a motion - against legal advice - where they decreed that 4 of the regional lists would be topped by a candidate who is disabled and the other 4 by someone BAME. This is what has now happened, so whilst SNP members voted in each region the final list isn't what they voted for as they've jumped the people who meet the criteria up.

H&I, for example, the voting percentages according to the leak are

Kate Forbes 31.8
Maree Todd 23.8
Fergus Ewing 19.7
Tom Wills 10.5
Mike MacKenzie 3.6
Emma Roddick 2.4
Robert Leslie 2.3
Rhiannon Spear2.0
Jamie Szymkowiak 1.9
Qasim Hanif 1.6
Ken Gowans 0.2
Sarah Fanet 0.2

But the final list has Emma Roddick at the top (disabled candidate)

Kate Forbes is only on the list as a backup (she has a constituency seat and seems unlikely to lose it), but Maree Todd currently is a list MSP for H&I and is likely to lose her seat to Emma despite Maree getting about 10x as many votes

To give a worked example. Say a region has 16 constituencies. If a Party gets 50% of the vote (1st and 2nd are apportioned by some mysterious formula) then they ought to have 8 seats. If they already have 8 Constituency seats they don't get any on the List. If they have 7 they get 1. If they have 9 they still get to keep all 9.

So in Glasgow last time round the SNP won 100% of 9 Constituencies on 45% of the vote. They therefore got no list seats. There are 7 List seats and so in Glasgow they have more MSPs than their vote share indicates.

As MSPs are allocated to Constituencies in the normal way it is not the case that a Party can replace one candidate with another. Therefore it is entirely possible for Nicola or Humza to lose their seat and not get a List place no matter how high up the List they are.

In fairness a few SNP supporters voted Green in Glasgow last time to get Patrick Harvie in as this was a way of circumventing the fact that the SNP had already topped out on the Constituency share. However SNP + Green vote was still just over 54% so even if all the "SNP Greens" had voted SNP in 2nd vote the SNP would still have not got a List seat and Patrick may have missed out as well.

Further side note. It looks like there may be a couple of constituency MSPs not on the Lists at all? Maybe they are standing down and are yet to announce.

The potential legal challenge surrounds self certification of eligibility for preferred list spots.

I think they got legal advice advising against the self certification or something?

The information about NS’s previous legal career is pretty awful, how on earth has that been kept out of the public domain until now?
I have no idea whether it is true or not but if it is then the pressure on her will be enormous. Will it be enough to force her to resign?

It's huge quagmire of hassle that they really could have avoided.

I've just noted someone else mention this re the votes on the lists.

Joan McAlpine got the most votes across the whole country, even more than Sturgeon herself.

@WouldBeGood

I think they got legal advice advising against the self certification or something?

Wings has the info on this - wingsoverscotland.com/the-death-wish/

@TheShadowyFeminist

I've just noted someone else mention this re the votes on the lists.

Joan McAlpine got the most votes across the whole country, even more than Sturgeon herself.

It has been noted that the percentages don't make sense - apparently these are the first vote preferences only so the final rankings might be somewhat different. Assuming it's accurate it still gives a reasonable picture though in that in some areas those who are topping the list were not popular

Thank you for all the clear explanations, that makes a lot more sense.

Yes, thanks @StatisticallyChallenged that’s the advice I saw at the time of the NEC which passed this idiocy regardless of the advice of a QC.

Mm, seems to be a thing, that!

As an aside, “toxic bonehead” is going to be my new insult of choice 😂

Yes I've seen comments now about this being the 1st preference on the 1st round of STV.

IIRC Rhiannon Spear won the women's convener role via STV with Collete Walker in top spot until the v last round.

So the final votes or % isn't yet confirmed.

@TheShadowyFeminist

Yes I've seen comments now about this being the 1st preference on the 1st round of STV.

IIRC Rhiannon Spear won the women's convener role via STV with Collete Walker in top spot until the v last round.

So the final votes or % isn't yet confirmed.

I'm presuming that it's a fairly standard STV system - I'm not entirely sure how many candidates each party submits, whether it's the max to fill the number of seats or whether it can be more. Even if it's 7 (which is I think the number of regional MSPs for each area) then for H&I, as an example, even if every single vote cast for a person from 8th place and below voted for Emma Roddick as second choice she would still have only placed around 5th (if I've understood correctly, I can't find the SNP guidance on how their system works.) And that's obviously a pretty unlikely scenario.

Slightly off topic, it would be good to have a separate thread looking at all the main parties & their lists etc. I haven't seen much on labour's lists, or the LibDems/Tories etc.

Back to subject at hand.

Good idea shadowy I had a look to see who was standing in my local area and couldn't find any info yet.

I’d be interested in that too @TheShadowyFeminist

Has anyone seen the publicity put out by the SNP candidate standing against Jackie Baillie? He is stating that an independent Scotland could double the state pension. I like to think that this sort of claim is so outlandishly false it could backfire. I mean, either the candidate believes this and therefore is thick as mince, or he thinks the electorate is thick enough to believe such breathtaking nonsense.

I mean an Indy Scotland could double the pension if it wanted to say close all schools, or halve the NHS budget, or stop paying other benefits. Absolute cloud cuckoo thinking.

@Iwouldratherbesailing that’s just appalling.

Who knows what would happen with state pensions at all, as they’re currently UK based. But doubling them is just clearly a lie.

Is it time for an election thread so this one can stick to the inquiry??

I haven't seen it. I have a friend that posts this type of shite but also holds a senior position in financial services. Nothing surprises me anymore.

It's standard fare though this type of rubbish.

Exactly - they could double it. At the cost of loads of other essential expenditure.

They could build a giant themepark, or bring in a universal income, or double nurse wages, or give everyone a free puppy. Doesn't mean they would, or that doing so wouldn't cripple the country

@StatisticallyChallenged

Exactly - they could double it. At the cost of loads of other essential expenditure.

They could build a giant themepark, or bring in a universal income, or double nurse wages, or give everyone a free puppy. Doesn't mean they would, or that doing so wouldn't cripple the country

Fuck the pension and the nurses. I WANT MY PUPPY!!!!!!!!!

sunshine and rainbows. What did I tell you?

Roddy Dunlop QC fancies himself as a bit of a comedian.

Link to Tweet

He's definitely had a weight lifted from his shoulders! 😁

I was reading a previous tweet comments and he said he drinks Disco Shandy (larger).

I like a sense of humour.