Salmond v Sturgeon round 4. What next?

[Cismyfatarse]

New thread.

Just looking back at Twitter and it looks like the leak from the committee happened while they were still meeting

I wouldn't put money on Harvie retaining his List seat. Last time it took 14k votes to get a List seat. The Greens polled 23k. That looks like a slam dunk until you factor in that most of it came from people who voted SNP 1st and Green 2nd or Labour 1st and Green 2nd. The Labour List vote was 20k below their polling at constituency level. I would be surprised if that were repeated this time around. Similarly if SNP voters are feeling less confident then it is at least plausible that they will be less inclined to risk vote splitting.

It is plausible, but fairly unlikely unless SNP lose a constituency seat or two I think. On the last results, if you halved the Green vote and gave the extra all to the SNP then SNP would have been able to take the 7th list seat but much less wouldn't swing it and that does depend on it going all to SNP.

If it reduced by say 40%, with that going 3/4 SNP 1/4 Labour then the greens would still get a seat on about 12.3k

I'd love to see the little weasel out on his arse, just not getting my hopes up

Very detailed timeline of events here (it’s all starting to make my eyes bang together, to be honest) caltonjock.com/2021/03/20/the-obnoxious-trial-of-alex-salmond-is-a-battle-for-the-soul-of-the-party-between-the-authoritarian-regime-of-sturgeon-and-the-democratic-aspirations-of-alex-salmond/

The SNP currently hold all 9 constituency seats. That is more than 50% of seats on less than 50% vote share at both constituency and List level. So even if none of their constituency vote went 2nd Green they still wouldn't gain a List seat I don't think.

If the SNP lose a constituency seat that would require a significant switch back to Labour. Unlikely but possible in Pollok (Humza), Southside (Nicola vs Anas) or Rutherglen (Ferrier effect). If that were to happen the switch would likely be even more pronounced on the List and would adversely affect the Green vote as well.

Interesting title for that Blue.

Deeply depressing that the whole country seems to have been distilled into the murky depths of 2 equally egotistic factions within a Nationalistic Party. The ultimate definition of navel gazing fiddling while the Nation languishes.

New thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/scotsnet/4197096-Ding-Ding-Ding-Round-5-Salmond-and-Sturgeon

@StatisticallyChallenged

Just looking back at Twitter and it looks like the leak from the committee happened while they were still meeting

Oh interesting. So less likely to be leaked by an MSP?

@SempreSuiGeneris it affects us all, like it or not. The whole affair has highlighted the many weaknesses in our democratic system and exposed an exceptionally authoritarian streak in the current FM. To my mind this could be any party in power in Scotland that could be exploiting the various loopholes, it just happens to be the SNP just now. A radical overhaul of the system is needed.

Was Liz Lloyd at that meeting? Just wondering..

@SempreSuiGeneris

The SNP currently hold all 9 constituency seats. That is more than 50% of seats on less than 50% vote share at both constituency and List level. So even if none of their constituency vote went 2nd Green they still wouldn't gain a List seat I don't think.

If the SNP lose a constituency seat that would require a significant switch back to Labour. Unlikely but possible in Pollok (Humza), Southside (Nicola vs Anas) or Rutherglen (Ferrier effect). If that were to happen the switch would likely be even more pronounced on the List and would adversely affect the Green vote as well.

I'm sad enough that I ran the numbers through before I posted - it is possible. They got 128k constituency votes vs 111k list. If 50% of green votes went back to SNP that would take them to 123k nearly.

All else staying the same, that would be enough to swing them the 7th seat with the way the numbers landed in 2016.

I think this sort of thing is why they're pushing SNP 1 and 2 - it's not about taking votes from Lab/Cons/Lib Dem but the Greens

It did make me wonder @Graffitiqueen but maybe there was a break. But what it does suggest is a fairly impulsive action; I think they only voted on it at that point and the wording was being discussed so someone obviously made a fairly rapid decision to leak it. Or had made a decision previously (maybe after discussion with external parties) that if it went that way it was getting leaked perhaps?

Just catching up with last night's chat, and went down a bridges for indy rabbit hole. I think something may have twigged. Though, as expected, I had never heard of this person before . Also, entirely unrelated of course, I think I have been getting Anguses MacNeil and Robertson confused in my head (even more ).

Don't be mixing up yer Anguses! That'll leave you mighty confused.

@StatisticallyChallenged

Just looking back at Twitter and it looks like the leak from the committee happened while they were still meeting

Can you link that? That's interesting.

I still think it's an SNP leak. Desperate times call for desperate measures & I think they'd go for trying to control the negative narrative even if that means leaking the fact Sturgeon didn't convince the committee she was honest.

@SempreSuiGeneris

The current debacle is really showing up the inherent weakness in the Holyrood voting system.

Actively works to prevent a single Party forming a majority which can then afford internal dissent to hold it to account. Fragments the Opposition into competing factions who end up focused on each other rather than Govt. Gives disproportionate power and exposure to minor players without accountability.

Before the Greens this is the mechanism which allowed the SNP to coattail as the bit player getting all of the credit and none of the flak.

Contrast with FPTP in WM where the LibDems went into coalition only to end up getting all of the flak and none of the credit.

Also the Closed List system gives too much power to the party hierarchy. If you don’t toe the line then rule changes might be implemented that knock you off top spot....makes rebellions and awkward squads far less likely.

An Open List where voters pick which candidate gets their list vote is more complex to count but gives the power to the voters, not the party.

I posted on the new thread too - Andy Wightman pointing to yet more potential code breaches:
mobile.twitter.com/andywightman/status/1373228632160804866

@Blurberoo

Was Liz Lloyd at that meeting? Just wondering..

Someone on Twitter was saying that...

God I hope Harvie loses his seat...