Salmond v Sturgeon round 4. What next?

[Cismyfatarse]

New thread.

I think it’s pretty obvious that if NS cannot handle this mess then it is very very hard to imagine her negotiating with the UK Government

I agree - what struck me about her/ her teams efforts to get concessions from U.K. gov throughout brexit was the fact she was hampered with the external performance of defending Scotland's interests & and the inability to even properly engage on anything to do with brexit while the whole thing played out. The bad miscalculation on calling the election in 2019 when it handed the Tories the outright majority was one that the SNP judged wrongly.

The SNP were outmanoeuvred too easily throughout the brexit shambles as they had no clue, no strategy, no plans, no preparation or ability to seize the opportunity for disillusionment over brexit. Blackford bleating on endlessly about not being dragged out of the EU against our will was just empty bluster - and that's effectively what the SNP has been exposed as, just full of empty promises, carrots dangled continuously & and very little substance (other than allowing lobbyists to write bills for them).

@TheShadowyFeminist

This is being talked about on Twitter as the possible story spiked that Jackie Bailie mentioned during questioning.

<a class="break-all" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210303122310/petercherbi.blogspot.com/2021/03/first-interests-judge-recommended-for.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Link to a blog post archived

Oh deary me...

@TheShadowyFeminist

I think it’s pretty obvious that if NS cannot handle this mess then it is very very hard to imagine her negotiating with the UK Government

I agree - what struck me about her/ her teams efforts to get concessions from U.K. gov throughout brexit was the fact she was hampered with the external performance of defending Scotland's interests & and the inability to even properly engage on anything to do with brexit while the whole thing played out. The bad miscalculation on calling the election in 2019 when it handed the Tories the outright majority was one that the SNP judged wrongly.

The SNP were outmanoeuvred too easily throughout the brexit shambles as they had no clue, no strategy, no plans, no preparation or ability to seize the opportunity for disillusionment over brexit. Blackford bleating on endlessly about not being dragged out of the EU against our will was just empty bluster - and that's effectively what the SNP has been exposed as, just full of empty promises, carrots dangled continuously & and very little substance (other than allowing lobbyists to write bills for them).

Especially when compared to the way the DUP made hay out of the Brexit situation. I disagree with almost everything the DUP stand for, but bloody hell they extracted so many concessions from the Tories.

The SNP had the ability to give Boris the election he desperately wanted. There should have been a price for that, ideally a Section 30 letter signed and delivered!

More shenanigans going on with the SNP lists.

Link to tweet thread

Their 'diversity action' that's been described as unlawful & wide open to challenge that they'd likely lose, could end up under some scrutiny of anyone who has been 'bumped' decides to take action.

There's at least one person I see who I think just might try.

The SNP had the ability to give Boris the election he desperately wanted. There should have been a price for that, ideally a Section 30 letter signed and delivered!

Exactly! Fear of being tarnished by colluding with the Tories prevented them actually negotiating anything in Scotland's interests.

Ooft, Wings had the lists of the order yesterday so await an update when he's matched them against the these numbers.

Yep. Perhaps if the SNP had concentrated on the mechanics of Brexit for Scotland instead of grandstanding issue like the shellfish exports would have been highlighted and planned for properly just for starters.

@Happinessisawarmcervix - on Section 30, I think would always have been a no. Too high a price. The DUP and Tories are often aligned, whereas the SNP have no real traction in the House of Commons - chiefly because of two points

A) all the other parties support the union
B) the other parties do not work with the SNP
C) Consequently, the influence of the SNP in Westminster is tiny

Three! The SNP don’t influence matters significantly in the House of Commons. They are odd bods because they claim the whole idea is an outrage. So it stops there mostly!

[quote LexMitior]@Happinessisawarmcervix - on Section 30, I think would always have been a no. Too high a price. The DUP and Tories are often aligned, whereas the SNP have no real traction in the House of Commons - chiefly because of two points

A) all the other parties support the union
B) the other parties do not work with the SNP
C) Consequently, the influence of the SNP in Westminster is tiny[/quote]
Certainly possible, but they could at least have tried?

@LexMitior

Three! The SNP don’t influence matters significantly in the House of Commons. They are odd bods because they claim the whole idea is an outrage. So it stops there mostly!

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition

(Niche joke)

Agree Lex a s30 would never have been on offer from Boris. It was also convenient that the LibDems refused to work with Corbyn because I don't think Labour would have offered support for it either.

@Dinnafashyersel

Agree Lex a s30 would never have been on offer from Boris. It was also convenient that the LibDems refused to work with Corbyn because I don't think Labour would have offered support for it either.

Boris really needed that election though.....maybe not a S30 then but the SNP should have got something as the price for their support.

Well no Labour MP is going to advance the SNP in their aims - generally a pretty severe dislike. But the SNP having no agenda in Westminster beyond independence, and maintaining the devolution settlement (though on the numbers they have they can’t do that) then their presence doesn’t engage with any other party in the Commons.

@LexMitior

Well no Labour MP is going to advance the SNP in their aims - generally a pretty severe dislike. But the SNP having no agenda in Westminster beyond independence, and maintaining the devolution settlement (though on the numbers they have they can’t do that) then their presence doesn’t engage with any other party in the Commons.

And yet the general public have elected them and are paying them to represent their interests not the SNPs. Any MP or MSP should be representing their constituents first and foremost - regardless of whether they voted for them or not. Not just trying to further their own parties cause. Ok, that will be part of what their constituents voted for them for, but it's not the be all and end all of everything.

@Happinessisawarmcervix now things are getting so weird I do expect the Spanish Inquisition 😂

I’d quite like a giant foot to come down upon politicians too

@WaxOnFeckOff

Ooft, Wings had the lists of the order yesterday so await an update when he's matched them against the these numbers.

Just seen these now, assuming accurate...wtf SNP. If you were one of the bumped people who is potentially now not going to get, or lose, a seat you could be tempted to challenge.

Maree Todd is a list MSP just now, I think the only one just now. So she is potentially at very high risk. Kate Forbes is the only person above her on the list based on votes and she has a solid majority in her constituency so unlikely to need the list spot.

The SNP should have got something.

The SNP could have got something had they wanted it. It is well accepted by everyone that the Smith Commission resettlement for Devolution is not working particularly well. Too much control with no responsibility in some areas and the reverse in others. Also all the issues around powers coming back from the EU.

This is what the SNP would have angled for if they supported Devolution. However they DON'T. They're strategy is to undermine Devolution in order to get Independence. (Notable shift from when AS was in charge from an outsider looking in).

Pretty sure Joan McAlpine will have an issue also:

Joan McAlpine 32.3
Paul Wheelhouse 17.4
Emma Harper 13.2
Màiri McAllan 13.1
Richard Walker 6.8
Heather Anderson 6.7
Siobhian Brown 4.5
Stacy Bradley 2.1
Paul McLennan 2.0
Ali Salamati 0.7
Stephen Thompson 0.7
Laura Brennan-Whitefield0.4

and yet the published list is:
Emma Harper
Joan McAlpine
Paul Wheelhouse
Màiri McAllan
Richard Walker
Heather Anderson
Siobhian Brown
Stacy Bradley
Paul McLennan
Ali Salamati
Stephen Thompson
Laura Brennan-Whitefield

I think Joan is safer than Maree as South of scotland is a region (I have a feeling the only one) where SNP gets more than 1 list msp at present

This is the list I think has the potential for a challenge.

WEST SCOTLAND

Stuart McMillan 18.3
Kenneth Gibson 17.3
Rona Mackay 16.4
Christopher McEleny 16.3
Colm Merrick 9.2
Lorna Douglas 9.1
Annette Ireland 5.8
Michelle Campbell 4.4
Debra Torrance 2.1
Gavin Lundy 0.4
Jonathan McColl 0.3
Daniel Kennedy 0.3

Michelle Campbell has been pushed to the top on 4.4%, Chris McEleny got 16.3% and is likely to lose out.

He's very vocal in his criticism of the hierarchy in the SNP. I think he might be the one to take on the challenge.

Has anyone seen how the lists marry up with who is standing where? I suspect there are wider implications as around 15 SNP MSPs are retiring.

There may yet be some rejigging going on as List Decisions were predicated on them Holding all constituency seats and perhaps gaining a few. The polls have moved since then.

I don't know the detail on the list seat likelihoods, but it certainly puts her more at risk and also the guy below her who should be in 2nd place and is now in 3rd.

And of course Nicola herself who is now number 2 and standing against Sarwar in her constituency seat (potentially).

I don’t understand this list thing, please could someone explain? Thanks

My (limited) understanding of the lists.

At election time, we get 2 votes.

1 constituency
1 list

Overall, the number of list seats a party gets is determined by whether they get the constituency seats in the same region.

So Lothian area has a few constituency seats, 1 list. If SNP got all constituency seats, they'd likely get no list seats. If they lost 1 or 2 constituency seats, they'd have some 'fall back' from the list.

I defer to someone else explaining it better as I still get a bit confused!