To InfiniTier and beyond ....

[dancemom]

Tiers, tiers and more tears ....

It's what the WHO use as a measurement and will contribute towards Tiers when they are reinstated I assume?

But I agree using hospital cases or deaths would be a more accurate measurement

The WHO measurement as I understand it is a different thing. I could be wrong here but I gather that how that works is that you take a section of community, say 1000 people in x area, test them and that gives an idea of the level of infection in the community. It's not about how many folk with or without symptoms seek out testing. The latter is more likely to elicit positive test results.

It's good news that test positivity is coming down but please take the actual figure with a pinch of salt as it can easily change its just a marker for that day.

As for the flight they have contacted over 2/3 of it just last chunk to go.
I wouldn't be too concerned for several reasons
1: it was over a month ago the people would have developed covid way before now
2: Genome sequencing is being conducted so far shows no spread
3: Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire daily numbers are very low (single figures for over a week). The Brazilian variant spreads more easily (like the Kent) if it had for out properly you would expect numbers to be going in the opposite direction and for that to have started a few weeks ago.

I think a problem with using deaths as a measurement is that it is the date of registration which is used, rather than the date of death. A death may be registered several weeks after it occurred which will make the figures a bit out of date. I like to look at the number of people in hospital and ICU as I think it gives a more up to date picture.

@WaxOnFeckOff

The WHO measurement as I understand it is a different thing. I could be wrong here but I gather that how that works is that you take a section of community, say 1000 people in x area, test them and that gives an idea of the level of infection in the community. It's not about how many folk with or without symptoms seek out testing. The latter is more likely to elicit positive test results.

Correct the way that WHO use test positive rate is by random sampling not by systematic people testing positive.

It's another reason why the new tier thresholds are disproportionate and not how it was intended in the WHO document.

To be fair, all the MI is flawed in one way or another which is not great given it's being used to control the population.

Yep! If numbers continue in my area to be as low as they are in mid April we would go straight to Tier 1 which should be mostly everything open.......... I have zero hope of this however.

I really feel for people in the central belt it could still be months to get out of tier 4 by their new system!

I don't take the daily percentage as anything important in and of itself, more as part of an overall picture of improving trends that we can be pleased about.

The problem with using the hospital/ICU numbers is that there is usually a lag between infection and hospitalisation so it doesn’t give a good estimate for what is happening right now.

The UK stats don't seem to report the % positivity rate, or do they and I've not noticed.

The random sampling makes much more sense. Why is this not being challenged by anyone? So depressing to think we could be locked down for longer than necessary through embarrassment that you've misunderstood the measures. But hey if you rely on experts acolytes the what do you expect.

What's going on in Stirling and Falkirk, anyone know ???
Positive cases seem to very high! Is there a big workplace/prison/carehome outbreak?

@drive the UK govt page does when you select areas on the map or use a postcode.

A journalist did try to challenge Jason Leitch on why they were applying WHO levels but using different criteria of test positivity rate rather than the WHO positive rate which uses community random sampling (comparing apples with pears for instance) and he gave a response of the WHO uses many different indicators the SG is using it as a basis but each country differs (or something along those lines as I was pretty frustrated and peeved with the responses!)

Test positivity will be further skewed thd more we use lateral flow testing and those going for a pcr will more often already have a positive from a lateral flow.

@Sootess

What's going on in Stirling and Falkirk, anyone know ??? Positive cases seem to very high! Is there a big workplace/prison/carehome outbreak?

@Sootess

Is this down to the bus depot outbreak? I heard it was affecting Stirling but mainly Falkirk.

@Scottishskifun I agree with your earlier comment that there’s no way they’ll put areas in the “correct” low Teirs straight after this lockdown. Last time the put us (northern isles) in a made up 1.5 Teir and never let us get to the lowest Teir. There’s no way they’ll let us go straight into Teir 0 if we keep up with zero know covid cases.

@Scottishskifun yes it would have hopefully have become apparent by now if the variant had spread out. Quite surprised that there were 90 people on the flight but not considered close contacts after the initial 3 tested positive...due to masks maybe? Wouldn't have thought there'd be much distancing with that many people

@MrsAmaretto sadly I agree. We were supposed to be tier 1 by the levels except we kept being told that it was too risky....

I have very little faith in them following their own system sadly. No doubt we will be told its too soon etc etc. The Northern Isles will also be interesting as your right you guys have had zero cases for a while now!

Not sure if I missed this in the last thread, but I looked up the schools return and the Daily Record had this:

Guidance on entering people's homes will be amended by the Scottish Government to make clear supporting new parents is allowed.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs in Holyrood: "We are amending guidance on this today, to make it clear that those essential purposes include support for the welfare and wellbeing of a parent of a child who is under the age of one.

"I hope that gives clarity - and enables vital support - for parents of very young children."

Which is a great time for her to tell us that she'd apparently always meant for this to be legal?? Oh well, I guess it means that retroactively, my mum hasn't been breaking the law to visit me, and that's how the law works in Scotland now isn't it...

When I have thought of young mums isolated with babies and toddlers my blood begins to heat a bit.
Yes you all need whatever support it takes tbh.

It's making law breakers ( although no longer in your mum's case polarisation!) of normally law abiding people which is never s good idea.

@polarisation this was due to pressure from the likes of NCT and other mums support groups.
In England since November lock down it's been clear that those with a baby under 1 were able to form a support bubble regardless of how many people were in the house.
This was never clarified or outlined in Scotland which is completely wrong! So you could have used the vulnerable element of exemptions but they should have made it clear for new parents. It should never have been missed as a clear information. What parent of a newborn has time to read all the SG guidelines to work out they are allowed basic support!

This makes me angry.

It seems to only have been reported by the Sun and the Record so very little fanfare for something that will have an impact on so many. But new mums and babies have been let down throughout so why change it now.

We had always been using the "vulnerable person" excuse (if we'd been caught), but at least this means we can now go to visit friends with other new babies, not just in the park.

@OldRailer

When I have thought of young mums isolated with babies and toddlers my blood begins to heat a bit. Yes you all need whatever support it takes tbh.

I broke the rules in summer. It was just me and my 2 year old every day (DH working full time) as I had had to go on furlough due to no childcare. My mental health was wrecked and so in June my mum and I said fuck it and started seeing each other again. I feel awful for anyone who stuck to the rules in a similar situation.

I have friends whose babies were born in lockdown (and are now almost 1 so soon outside the exemption!) and they are furious NS presented it as clarifying what was always allowed. They feel taken for fools.