New Fred. It nearly ended in tiers.

[Cismyfatarse]

Sorry. Lost track of what was proposed. Hope this will do.

Yip the second dose - booster is about giving longer term protection.

Just catching up.

@Groovee really pleased to read, fingers crossed all gets sorted out quickly.

Vaccinations thankfully seem to be ramping up now, it was making me feel really hopeless and frustrated.
We’ve booked 2 summer holidays, one to Cornwall and one in Scotland. I’m not going without.
I’m so scunnered trying to find things to keep the kids going. The only treat at the moment is food, the weather is foul and miserable. Wish for a big dump of snow so we could at least play in that.

@frasersmummy

I have just read that John swinney has said that vaccination of the general population will not mean the end of restrictions

So if vaccination is not the answer what is...?
Are we just never going back to weddings, graduations, 21sts, or even simple things like the theatre..

I'm thoroughly depressed and worried now that there is no end point to aim for.

The problem is that even everyone vaccinated might not be enough.

I think that AZ vaccine is reckoned to block about 2/3 of transmission (this may not be exact but for now it'll do)

Vaccine is not approved for kids so only 81% can be vaccinated. Let's say we do really well and actually achieve 75% of population vaccinated.

For ease, consider an unblocked transmission as the same as an unvaccinated person in terms of spread. It might not be. So we have 25% plus 1/3 of 75% = 50% total can still spread it. The natural R number (when we're not restricted) is hard to know but most estimates I've seen were 3-4, Kent may be higher. So if we are unrestricted the virus will still spread at an increasing rate. We don't know enough about how kids spread it really, it seems that it probably is less than adults. But even if you assume kids are half as spready on average - you quite possibly still have an R over one.

The question then becomes is spread a problem - will the vaccine take out enough of the serious cases to make it not really matter? The current stats suggest it might - AZ is claiming 76% efficacy, but no hospitalisations. If this plays out in real life then spread isn't that important as it does effectively become a nasty cold - the vaccine neuters the severe cases

Sorry that was a bit of a long post and crossed with others. If the vaccine works in real life like it does in trials it changes the nature of the virus but govt will have to be pretty brave to have faith in that and let us loose. I suspect they'll want to go very slowly to be sure it's working that way in real life

@StatisticallyChallenged I think this sounds exactly right. They're betting on few to no hospitalisations and it becoming endemic, in the truest sense, as a nasty cold. I think this is exactly how they want it to play out and, although I'm no expert, I don't see why it wouldn't.

I think the posturing from governments about extended restrictions continuing etc etc is probably from the behavioural scientists to try and keep a lid on rule breakers as the vaccinations ramp up. That keeps the moderates and the rule followers more in line.

Agree with you both kurt and stats.

I also think the stuff from Linda Bauld and co and the Telegraph are kite flying. Waiting for the penny to drop that it isn't ethically acceptable for vaccinated pensioners to be all down the pub and jetting off to Tenerife while schools and Unis are closed / restricted.

Also looks like it will be very difficult to open up the hospitality sector piecemeal. Instant backlash last night to suggestion to open pubs without alcohol or restaurants with massively reduced capacity. The industry played along last year because it was sold as a gradual route to normality. Few if any are viable on that model and they are nursing the weight of last Summer's loss making trading followed by total shutdown with debt overhang. I also think there is a valid concern that customer behaviour may have changed substantially.

given up is about right - mind you, if they push back the P1 restart date I may personally deliver my P1 to Holyrood.

I know Scotland is going to restrict travel longer than anywhere else in the UK, and our freedom will come back slower. A leopard doesn't change its spots. I've spent an enjoyable morning buying all in one splash suits for the kids and looking at Scottish holiday options with water, sand, countryside etc. DH won't engage yet, he says it all looks cold.

I was in denial last year and lots of soaked trousers and muddy coats were the result.

Hmm perhaps I need to get ahead of the curve and also think about wet suits for that cold summer sea bathing.

Oh no! @anon444877 has a push back of the P1 been suggested?

@frasersmummy

I have just read that John swinney has said that vaccination of the general population will not mean the end of restrictions

So if vaccination is not the answer what is...?
Are we just never going back to weddings, graduations, 21sts, or even simple things like the theatre..

I'm thoroughly depressed and worried now that there is no end point to aim for.

I don’t get this either. If there’s no hope what’s the point?

I agree with @StatisticallyChallenged 's assessment of what vaccination means. However much Zero Devi and Nicola would want it, we cannot eradicate Covid forever. Just as we have not eradicated flu.

We have to go back to the beginning with protect the NHS. That's what vaccination will do - stop the majority of people getting ill with it to the extent that they need hospitalised or die. If it spreads among younger people then it doesn't matter as much as long as the over 50s (or wherever we set the cut-off) are protected. If a younger person does get it then there will be space for them in the unlikely event they need hospital care.

Yes viruses can mutate, but it'll just be a case of an annual vaccination for Covid just as all the vulnerable at the moment get a vaccine for flu. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if AstaZeneca and hte rest of them are working on a 2 in 1 flu/Covid jab right now, for rollout in autumn 2022.

I won't be bathing in any UK sea because a, cold and b, DD hates the sea, no matter what country we are in.

I love the sea abroad though better than a pool.

@rookiemere don’t be put off these cook at home meals. We’ve done a few that have been great but also were not keen on the Six one.

If you’re in Edinburgh then Cafe St Honore is doing them I think. Le Petit Cochon in Glasgow is great.

I saw something about AZ working on a vaccine for covid mutations that would be ready by August or Autumn can't remember what ot said.

But yea it would be ridiculous for oldies to get jetting off to Tenerife getting back to normal while kids were missing out on school.
I think I'd cry if the ILs did that. I say the in-laws they are multiple holidays a year type folk. So yes would go if they could.

It seems Wales are talking part time school for when the older ones go back, which is a worry

@WouldBeGood it's a worry alright especially for those sitting exams. Nota total shock though given they don't know the full extent of impact of Covid and transmission on teens. An s5 in my school is looks to be suffering from some not insignificant consequences of covid. ME type symptoms, exhaustion, hair loss etc.

@Dinnafashyersel I think you're totally right re hospitality, they were told the restrictions would be a gradual step by step back to normality. To hear about potential plans to have pubs re open without alcohol is a total kick in the teeth, not a viable option at all for pubs and restaurants. I think all areas of society played along until we find a vaccine, until a vaccine is given to the most vulnerable etc etc. And now they're saying even once this has happened we can't get all restrictions lifted

Post viral stuff is horrible but not a reason to keep schools shit and restrictions in place once vulnerable vaccinated.

Schools shut! Not that my swearing causes my phone to autocorrect to swearing 😳

I think they'd want to monitor the extent of it before making any decisions they may later have to reverse @wouldbegood. Could be something could be nothing. The guardian were reporting yesterday what seemed like a huge number of kids being admitted to hospital weekly with post covid complications. I didn't actually click into it and read it properly though because quite frankly I was too depressed with it.

Kurt that sounds like Long Covid poor kid.

Part time school isn't great but it's better than nothing.

Remember how quickly and easily Covid fired through the Uni kids aged 18-22 ish. Ok they live together too. I still can't see the huge difference between them and older Secondary kids 15-18, who full-time in school would be using same toilets and have little social distancing.

No easy answers.

Thought it was a wee Freudian slip @WouldBeGood !

No! I’m very pleased with school 😂

Andy Burnham pointing out the obvious issue with reopening hospitality in a heavily restricted fashion. Not only is it financially illiterate it will lead to customers voting with their feet and socialising in a socially unrestricted manner at home.

This is bad for business and bad for public health. However the worst impact will be the complete decimation of "society" as we know it. You won't need a vaccine passport for my ancestral pile such as it is but I will be refusing entry to everyone I don't like the look of.

The super rich will just hire private jets and private compounds if they don't want a vaccine. They might even insist the staff around them are vaccinated so they don't need to bother. They already opt for private/home schooling and medicine to do similar.

Read something interesting from the US yesterday. One of the reasons some States have had more success at keeping schools open is because they already run parallel remote learning platforms - tradition of home schooling, choice in education and serving rural communities. States with large doses of social engineering in the education system (busing between communities etc) have tried very hard to remove these options making compromise where parents have valid concerns over safety challenging.

Is it me or is Andy Burnham strangely attractive now?

kurt unfortunately long Covid is not the only risk in this age group. I know several, my DD1 included, who lost large amounts of their senior years to long term illness. Glandular fever is the most well known for this but there are lots. I also know several with long term health conditions who are very poorly served by the current model. The education system could have much more flexibility to prevent individuals from being penalised. Keeping secondary school and Uni age DC out of society, especially with each other, is not a viable solution.