Tiers on my pillow

[Cismyfatarse]

As requested.

Happy to help with home es queries about English up to AH level.

With relative risks of age groups, I'm talking about the predicted impact on R of on the various school settings as described here. From the figure below, you can see early years has tiny impact compared to even primary schools, which in turn us less than secondary.

Science moves on of course, but since initial studies suggest a similar age profile with the new variant, and given the difficulties closing nurseries induce, I think England have definitely made the right call here.

It was just a Twitter thing I saw - don’t know!

I just don’t understand why more not being done. None of my ancient relatives have been offered it

I agree @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us

Funny there has been no update on the r number. It doesn't always change weekly as we were told it would only be updated if there was a change - so has there actually been no change, paused for christmas, or what?

Last change was 16/12 when it was 0.9-1.1

I'm hoping Boris keeping the nurseries open, might actually put a bit of pressure on Nic to open the nurseries.

She's probably in two minds, nurseries make a huge difference to children, a huge difference to families, so it's far better for children to be in nursery.

But the reverse of that is she likes to go a step further than Boris.

Maybe her flag waving moment is going to be we get the schools open before him.

Honestly none of this should be a political flag waving moment.

I agree @biking my 2 year old gets so much from nursery. He was very nervous around toddlers in the summer after 5 months with just his parents. Im really sad and worried about how i will work from home.

There again England had some kids back in school before the summer. Ok their holidays were later than ours but even a few weeks would have made a difference. Nurseries in Scotland didn't open to none keyworkers until much later than England.

Conclusion - it's all about the virus nothing else matters to her. Despite her wanting to be judged on education, she'll be history before today's nursery kids sit their Highers, so they don't matter a hoot!

Sorry for pouring my thoughts onto paper but it kind of helps.

• I wonder if it's because the second dose will be incorporated into that timeline?

I’d think so yes. There should be first dose people getting second dose within 12wks so say up to those initially done between December - February would take them up to May to complete 2nd. Perhaps they are counting doses (2) rather than people completed?
If that’s the case 1.25M vaccinated by May.
Do we know how many people involved in the various groups?

Did she say we would not be mixing types vaccines, unless necessary?
It’ll all come out no doubt.

Honestly none of this should be a political flag waving moment.

Absolutely. This really shouldn't be party political at this stage. I'd actually have liked to see a proper UK wide strategy, preferably under some sort of coalition. But there's far too much willy waving (is there a female equivalent? ) in politics for that

Sadly I can't see NS rolling back on it now that England is keeping all nurseries open for political reasons. She can't be seen to admit that either she went too far, or that Boris got something right that she got wrong.

@Coquohvan

* I wonder if it's because the second dose will be incorporated into that timeline?

I’d think so yes. There should be first dose people getting second dose within 12wks so say up to those initially done between December - February would take them up to May to complete 2nd. Perhaps they are counting doses (2) rather than people completed?
If that’s the case 1.25M vaccinated by May.
Do we know how many people involved in the various groups?

Did she say we would not be mixing types vaccines, unless necessary?
It’ll all come out no doubt.

Not sure of the numbers in each group - but I read over the weekend that they are not mixing the vaccines. So if you get Pfizer first time that's what you'll get for your second dose and likewise with the Oxford.

I have to say that I think they should ramp up the hours for giving the vaccine and also do weekends. I suppose it depends on the manpower. I believe for the Pfizer you get the jag but have to wait for 15 minutes before leaving the facility (probably in case of any reactions).

I just feel flat. It's always been follow the rules and we will ease restrictions. Let's face it our restrictions eased significantly less over the summer than England.

How long are we expected to just accept the FM and the cabinet know best? What are the the thresholds. whats an acceptable infection rate?

Hand on heart do any of us believe there will come a day Nicola Sturgeon will declare pandemic over and life resumes? Why would she? I don't know I'm just down tonight and worrying

By which I mean that its politically bad for NS, not that England has them open for political reasons!

@Coquohvan

* I wonder if it's because the second dose will be incorporated into that timeline?

I’d think so yes. There should be first dose people getting second dose within 12wks so say up to those initially done between December - February would take them up to May to complete 2nd. Perhaps they are counting doses (2) rather than people completed?
If that’s the case 1.25M vaccinated by May.
Do we know how many people involved in the various groups?

Did she say we would not be mixing types vaccines, unless necessary?
It’ll all come out no doubt.

It would be more than 1.25 - we'll be ramping up rather than vaccinating at a constant pace but there's 16 weeks until start of May, so only those who have already had it (call it 100k), plus those who are vaccinated in the next 4 weeks or so will have needed their second dose before May. So the vast majority of doses issued by then will be first dose only - I'd guess it will be in the region of 2m 1st / 500k second or thereabouts.

Roughly,

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us they are open here for key workers whether they are private or local authority nurseries. In England school and funded nurseries are doing the same but private nurseries have to open. I just don't understand why primary 1 and 2 are sumps of infection across the uk but 4 year olds are only infectious if they get a free place!!!
Total Boris mess as usual and seeing now that they will be meeting about this down south tomorrow, it will probably be changed to match Scotland!!

I'm really worried about the vaccine and this south African virus.

What happens if the virus mutates too far and the vaccines cant touch it?

I think this is why the panic is on now.
Sorry.

That Sage risk of transmission for nursery is based from the Summer though. When community transmission was low and without the new variant.

With the vaccine roll out, I think there is the problem that they don't actually have the doses required yet. Read an article about a world wide shortage of vials, which is why the Pfizer vaccine vials contain 5+ doses, to save on glass/vials. There's also bottlenecks in checking batches and filling the vials, due to worldwide lack of capacity.

I have similar anxieties @Dollybagwash... how far does the vaccination schedule have to get before they say "ok, let's get back to normal"? Do we have to wait for the whole population to be vaccinated? In which case it'll be what, 2022/2023 at this rate... I still don't see them gesturing towards any sort of end for all this.

@ProvisionallyAnxious thanks. I just don't see it: the UK as a whole is totally divided now. Even on here which has been so supportive and helpful we have our moments. Not meant to be goady but the ones who support NS what are your thoughts on this? I cannot stress enough it's a question not an argument. Given the name person bill etc?

I honestly feel like it will take for the people to completely turn against her before NS accepts the pandemic is over. I know it isn't yet but just general thought.

@Dollybagwash me too

I support NS on this. I only wish she'd been able to close the borders like NZ did.

My dd is having a crap time with her AH English as she was supposed to attend another school to do the course which couldn't happen (consortium arrangement). 2 months after term started the online lessons eventually started complete with dodgy IT and no feedback or much interaction with the teacher (weren't allowed to have the screen or her mic on). I had to end up bringing her home to use the home PC as there was no class to sit in and the laptops were not always charged and slow to log into.

She's supposed to do a dissertation with no input as how to do one and its just a big shit show and with no prelims or exams how on earth is she expected to pass it. So sad for her and frustrated.

@ssd genuine question, what makes you support this 10 months on when there has been no strategy put in place. In regards to the border, well just close it? I appreciate it may not be that simple but she has stood against Boris in every way.

I honestly don't mean to be nasty I want to see the other side, I see my business done, my degree almost in the toilet and my child missing school with minimal financial support

Same here. The stats South of the Border are worse than America I believe so no one should be looking to there as an example of what should be done ( as s*it as it is).

It should have been a uk wide strategy NOT run by politicians