Tiers Of A Clown

[Bytheloch]

Thread #3456

Released from our dirty T4, but still bamboozled. Let’s keep each other sane on here...

@WouldBeGood yeah, I still don't understand why they agreed to this "4 nation plan" just to put their own spin on it. Not that I'm surprised

rae Not "advice" as such, but I really like Alasdair Munro (apsmunro) on twitter. He's a paediatrician but summarises loads of research especially on children/ schools and I find it really helpful. He doesn't have a "side", and recognises that there are risks re spread in schools, which increase with various factors and can be reduced by certain measures being taken. But set against the "all children are walking germ bombs sent into schools to kill their teachers" narrative from certain places it is very calming to find that the actual research doesn't say anything of the sort... He's also spot on, in my opinion, that the harms of closing or limiting schools are much worse to society than the risks associated with keeping them open. Obviously that's a value based judgement (albeit supported by research) which some claim make him biased, but hey... everyone's allowed opinions and we don't all have to agree with them all!

@NotAnActualSheep I like him too

Thanks @NotAnActualSheep
I'll look him up.

Everyone seems to end up taking sides in the end, Devi seemee fairly independent at first but is now definitely on Nicola's team which is a shame.

Do you think the ScotGov leans on people to switch to their side? Once they notice you gathering a bit of a following is that your independence under threat?

The figures quoted in the leaked document in the Telegraph show how quickly things change. That say the Edinburgh figures for the last data point on 8th December are 63 per 100,000 and positivity rate of 3.6%.
Today it's 95.1 per 100,000 and 5.1%, without going down a level.

I think appointments are mainly made on the basis of your support or not and it's difficult for anyone to continue in post without pledging allegiance. That's the issue with the press etc too. I think that's one of the reasons Hugh Pennington disappeared.

I suppose it is better to have a clear and consistent message about the advice from all quarters, but it does seem as if any reasonable debate on anything has been quashed.

Regarding Christmas I'm again surprised by both British and Scottish governments position on this. They didn't need to announce anything at the end of November, they could have said that the default position was minor relaxations on inside numbers on Christmas Day, but no unnecessary travelling. They chose to make the announcement because they knew some people would go anyway and as it was a cheap popularity ploy - for UKG to detract attention from Brexit and for SG as there is an election round the corner and nobody wants to be the grinch who stole Christmas.

Most people I know are not traveling or visiting anyone. We are going down to relatives in England although staying in a hotel. I was somewhat upset that my friend said that we'd be put back into full lockdown because of people like me - although technically I suppose if we caught it and got tested and spread it - it would be the truth. But I don't care how selfish it is - it's allowed so we're going.

@Rae36

Thanks *@NotAnActualSheep* I'll look him up.

Everyone seems to end up taking sides in the end, Devi seemee fairly independent at first but is now definitely on Nicola's team which is a shame.

Do you think the ScotGov leans on people to switch to their side? Once they notice you gathering a bit of a following is that your independence under threat?

To a certain extent, I think there is a lot of leaning on people. Like implied in this article where DS deleted a tweet and then came out totally aligned with NS.

I know that if contracted by the SG, especially research/ policy on a "controversial" area, you are not allowed to post any kind of personal opinions on that topic on social media etc, whether pro or anti. Obviously, there are certain exceptions but there is definitely a lot of "fear" in the SG at being seen to be not following a set narrative. They also put a lot of weight on "independent" people supporting their view, though are perfectly happy to discount their opinion/ research if it doesn't show what they want.

Well we three naughty little Scots are now back on Scottish soil. Have driven 960 miles there and back and we saw the grand total of one police car. Even then it was in the car park of a service station and they were too busy eating a Greggs

Thanks @NotAnActualSheep I’m going to follow your recommend. I like Prof Sikora on Twitter too, for the voice of Oncology through this crisis.
There’s a few other wise voices on there, who speak up for micro level impact in Scotland-often v.funny too- many of them give me hope that next year won’t be the political triumph everyone is assuming it will be
I try to stay off social when I’m irked though, or I end up down a toxic rabbit hole, if I’m not careful.

@Perihelion so we could argue that perhaps the level 3 restrictions imposed on Edinburgh since the second week of October has not had the desired effect and has not worked?

Surely the implementation and option of testing all the students might account for this rise? They had to endure two tests three days apart, I imagine both tests were counted.
I would also argue that the student body is bigger in Edinburgh than say Dundee or Stirling and that there is a larger cohort of students returning home than even say Glasgow ( my knowledge that a higher proportion of Glasgow students stay at home may be out of date). My dd knows of no one who lives at home with their parents, even in these on line lecture days and studies at the university.

In the same way that a stopped clock will be correct twice a day, the level we are put in will no doubt be correct at times and then can be justified and it can be claimed "we told you so".

Surely the purpose of the weekly review was to put each area in the level appropriate at that point and then review the next week. The 7 day figures we get are always behind, no idea why as they are not particularly accurate anyway, and the figures can be manipulated by increased testing etc anyway.

Jodri I don't think they found more than a handful of positive tests in all the student testing. Would doubtless have been all over the Press if they had. Good news otoh gets ignored.

@Dinnafashyersel that’s good news then.

I still don’t understand why the level 3 restrictions since October haven’t helped.

@WaxOnFeckOff yes the accuracy of the numbers is question...it’s another negative value for my local authority today!

@Jodri I think it’s because no matter what restrictions are in place the virus pretty much takes its course.

There does seem to have been a rise in several council areas across Scotland over the past week, including Edinburgh. I can't see an obvious pattern between which "protection level" they are/ were in though, though I've not looked in any detail. Possibly just more shopping/ activities as Christmas gets closer - even "allowable" ones like meeting a friend in a cafe or a less-than-2m-apart walk together or something?

I still have a niggling doubt that it may be that the restrictions imposed aren't helping bring down numbers as much as a different set of restrictions may. I'm still not convinced that limiting social mixing to a very restricted set of hospitality venues and only before 6pm isn't encouraging people to crowd into them in the limited hours, or maybe just "pushing" people to at home mixing instead. It definitely doesn't seem to have worked as well as they were hoping.

I did notice that at the moment rates and % positives in level 2 East Lothian are higher than Edinburgh, so it will be interesting to see if they are put back to level 3 (not that I think they should be, but just to see if there is any consistency).

jodri DH gets an update from his HoD at uni on the running totals of positives on the going- home student testing. I think at the end of last week there had been 4 asymptomatic positives identified across the whole of Scotland (if they get a positive on the lateral flow test they need a pcr test to confirm, so it's not just the dodgy tests, though it's possible not all positives are being picked up... but given those kind of numbers, I really doubt there are swathes of them).

[quote Jodri]@WaxOnFeckOff yes the accuracy of the numbers is question...it’s another negative value for my local authority today![/quote]
It's another Christmas Miracle!

There’s no evidence of significant spread in hospitality, gyms or shops.

Most in hospitals, care homes and work places, such as warehouses and food plants.

Jodri Or that the Level 3 restrictions have kept the numbers relatively suppressed, compared to having Level 2 rules, so we didn't have Level 4...yet.
There seems to have been a rise in cases in schools in Edinburgh, in the last week or so.
Don't think the rise is being driven by students, not all were tested and most seem to have left now.
If testing is increased there should be a decrease in positivity rate, if cases are stable or decreasing.

The overall international evidence is that on a societal level, the level or type of restriction has really no difference on the curve of deaths etc.

Most in hospitals, care homes and work places, such as warehouses and food plants.
Yeah, we should close down those dirty places run by people with obviously no respect for the regulations... Who would miss them, anyway?!

Level 3 restrictions have kept the numbers relatively suppressed, compared to having Level 2 rules, so we didn't have Level 4...yet.
But neither level 3 nor level 2 are intended to be used as a "maintenance" level according to the framework. They should be put in place for 2-4 weeks, to lower areas to level 0 or 1, where they should stay. If level 3 is just about stopping areas from going into level 4, it is failing. There are various reasons it may be failing, but I don't understand why the SG is sticking by its "level 3 is safer" mantra, when it's not supposed to be "safe"... it's supposed to bring down numbers quickly.

@NotAnActualSheep I wasnt suggesting they be closed!

Sorry... I knew that. I thought I had put in a but I hadn't...!

😂