October Becomes November Lockdown

[BlueThursday]

New thread

I suspect this will be the second of many

I'm just reading through that doc too - I struggle to see how keeping the whole central belt in T3 is justified based on that, nor why several areas are likely getting 2s. Unless I've really misunderstood it.

I think that they are (unjustifiably) keeping areas close together with the same restrictions so people don't travel to areas with lesser restrictions.

@Stuckinnow

I think that they are (unjustifiably) keeping areas close together with the same restrictions so people don't travel to areas with lesser restrictions.

Then there was literally no point was there? They should just have said any area within a reasonable travelling distance of Greater Glasgow has to be on whatever they are.

There is a whole lot of figures about deprivation and household make up etc at the end, presumably that's to justify something? Not read it all yet. On top of a days work, my eyes are nipping.

@Stuckinnow I think so too

Do you guys think they’ll really tier 4 Lanarkshire?

@stuckinnow I think so as well but that makes a mockery of the whole thing, especially for more rural areas. Sorry Dougie in Braemar, your indicators are a solid zero but you might travel to Aberdeen and they're a 2. So you're a 2.

The Lanarkshire indicators are 4s across the board for north and south - and my reading is that (broadly) meeting the higher indicator for any category means that's the suggested category. That bit hasn't been confirmed yet and there's possibly a weighting instead. But it looks bad.

I can’t cope with this again

The thing is, if they put Edinburgh, East and West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling etc on tier 3 then in all fairness, they can no longer justify Glasgow or the Lanarkshires not being on 4. there is simply no justification. So the other alternative is to leave them on 3 and lower the others to 2. They clearly don't want to do that either, so again what would be the point of any of this?

that should be east and mid lothian, not west which is currently a bit higher but think that could be a care home?

Totally shambolic
And terrible for so many people

Yep, I strongly suspect geography has a lot to do with the tier allocation despite that not being one of the factors listed.

Some of the forecasts in the document look dodgy to me though. Falkirk is 3 for ‘forecast cases’ despite the fact numbers have been falling for weeks yet it is at 0 for hospital capacity.

Stirling has no factors rated 3 but is tier 3 overall for some reason.

I'm sorry @WouldBeGood. I hope we're wrong

I think WaxOnFeckOff is right though - they are signalling clearly that they want to keep most of the central belt as a 3. That's hard to defend for parts - Stirling and East Lothian don't have a single 3 in their indicators, Edinburgh has 1. But they're almost certainly getting 3s. I don't know how they could justify making these the same as Lanarkshire based on their chosen indicators.

I think the forecast cases is the one that comes from the Imperial college modelling...in other words is likely to be a pile of pish.

The pressure from and for hospitality has obviously kicked in so I suspect that even tier 3 will have some relaxation of that factor. That'll be to appease those unjustifiably placed in tier 3 and to stop people travelling to those areas.

It's all a pile of shite.

I've no desire for any areas to be added into tier 4 by the way, but it just doesn't make any sense and doesn't include any element of fairness to not differentiate the areas at around or over 300 per 100k from those that are about 60.

can I ask how you are seeing these indicators and what the indicators are>

^same here. The cases/100k are not that far over the tier 4 threshold but every indicator being over is going to make it more likely.

God this is shit. Again

posted upthread - www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/factsheet/2020/10/coronavirus-covid-19-protection-levels-updated-draft-27-october-2020/documents/indicators-paper/indicators-paper/govscot%3Adocument/Indicators%2Bpaper%2B26%2BOct%2B1645.pdf

thanks. that's very interesting.

East Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire also look quite high alongside N & S Lanarkshire

What is causing the high numbers in Lanarkshire?

I was wondering if it's mixing of family groups. Most people I know from the Lanarkshires tend to live near family and hang out with them a lot.

DISLAIMER: NALPALT

NALPALT?

Not All Lanarkshire People Are Lanarkshire or Local T??

Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, Glasgow and West Lothian all seem to be on shoogly pegs too

Not All Lanarkshire People Are Like That.

We're east Dunbartonshire. I do the covid Zoe app every day, it has gone from 380 odd cases a week ago to over 1500 today. Lots of kids self isolating from s4, s5 & s6.

Many of the kids testing positive are extremely mild cases- the joy DD knows in s4 only tested because his parents were tested, is positive, and has no symptoms. But his positive test means about 40 other kids off school for 2 weeks.

@waitforitwaitforit

Not All Lanarkshire People Are Like That.

Ah!! :o