October Becomes November Lockdown

[BlueThursday]

New thread

I suspect this will be the second of many

I saw a travel agent posting today about flights to the Caribbean restarting.... for a fleeting moment I thought about it 😃

There needs to be much more transparency regarding tiers. What are the factors considered? Why does Edinburgh have more restrictions than Dundee despite having half the infection rate?

DH keeps getting sent cheap deals for holidays to Disney/Orlando next year and is desperate to book. Told him no because it will be impossible to insure and I'd say the risk of not being able to go is high. But the idea of taking the kids away and letting them just have some unrestricted joy is so appealing.

(Before anyone says it, I know we're not allowed in the USA just now!)

thanks @StatisticallyChallenged it's a minefield - I hate breaking rules but I've never been faced with so many contradictory, constantly changing and confusing pieces of guidance before. Interesting that decreasing self isolation and quarantine to 7 days is rumoured to be under consideration as I can see that increasing compliance.

A lot of the holiday companies do cover now so that if a country goes into quarantine you get a refund, but you'd need to see if they're now factoring in tier rises this side too! @WouldBeGood

if I did book anything, I wouldn't tell the kids til a day or two before based on how things are going!

@anon444877ni think I’ll content myself with a night away at the weekend before the travel restrictions are law

We'd also like to book something once DHs holidays are confirmed as 2021 is a big year for us, 2 Big birthdays and silver wedding anniversary and also because DH lost his brother and 2020 summer holiday was in full lock down phase so we didn't get far from our front door.

I can work and quarantine afterwards at home but DH can't as he's NHS. Didn't stop his colleagues going away and then getting an extra 2 weeks paid time to quarantine when they got back though. DSs are students so no problem with them being able to quarantine when they came back either.

So, we can't entertain it at the moment and when and if we are able to book, no doubt we won't be able to afford it or there will be no availability.

Oh I hadn't thought the tiers would stop travel abroad.

We're in Edinburgh and I am seriously considering a few days to Tenerife prior to Christmas. Even if we did have to quarantine when we came back DS would only have to miss a couple of days of school, and it looks a bit like quarantine periods will be reduced anyway.

But looking at insurance and travel companies and there appears to be no cover you can get for local restrictions stopping you going. Oh well I wouldn't book anything non refundable until the day before anyhow.

never been faced with so many contradictory, constantly changing and confusing pieces of guidance before

That's it in a nutshell isn't it. It doesn't really seem to be a case of emerging science/knowledge/data - it all just feels very scattergun. Coupled with poor analysis, slow (and unreliable) testing and so on.

I don't feel like there's really an exit plan either. I know there's a lot of potential vaccines and it seems likely that one or more of them will "work", but quite possibly that the effectiveness might be relatively low and that we will only be giving it to a proportion of the population anyway. So what happens then?

@WaxOnFeckOff it’s nice to think about trips, something cheery.

I was hoping to start with France at new year. Self catering by the tunnel. I could quarantine really as could DP. Went in the summer and the house was amazing!

Though as things stand, it looks like we’ll be back to the times when it was exciting to go to Motherwell as I’d accidentally booked my asda click and collect there 😂

@StatisticallyChallenged I agree. I think the lack of an exit plan, or any kind of coherent strategy makes it all very difficult just to accept.

Yes and the fact the tier 0 isn't normal just makes you wonder if we are never going to be free again! Unprecedented levels of the state controlling our lives, badly.

I reckon the travel insurance will catch up to the local lockdown tiers since it impacts half the uk now.

I don't want to be the devil in anyone's ear but there are some cracking deals at the moment for non quarantine places!

Just make sure you get your money back for what goes into quarantine for Scotland not rUK...

it’s nice to think about trips, something cheery.

It is, I'm still sort of hoping to do a nice meal and overnight in Edinburgh at the end of Nov but no point booking at the moment.

I'm more optimistic about the vaccine than most - all the news is the oxford vaccine works, I'm hoping that it causes a big decrease in panic and then things get back to proper normal.

Also apparently Boots is launching a covid test that gives results in 20 minutes. I don't know what the cost is or if it could be rolled out to the general public for the testing procedure, but an almost instantaneous test result could be a real game changer.

The travel companies have been putting pressure on the insurance industry to cover Covid etc as they know people won't book unless they are covered for cancellations.

I have also been told travel companies have to ensure people have medical cover for covid for travelling.

But the biggie is testing at airports before people board flights. Which means people have confidence they aren't on a flight with someone infected.

But the other thing is the vaccine. The sooner the better.

I'm fairly optimistic there'll be a vaccine that has some kind of impact on mortality rates, but I worry that its been set up as some kind of panacea that will make the virus disappear and I think that's very unlikely. There's a huge question mark in my mind about how effective it will be in the elderly, who obviously are most in need of it, as vaccines are often less effective in this age group. I think it's much more likely to reduce the severity of symptoms and perhaps slow down spread a bit, but I suspect there will always be a background level of COVID19 in the population, and sooner or later we need to face that fact.

I also share the deep frustration at the lack of an exit plan or transparency about how tiers are decided. As a data scientist I am also despairing a bit at the poor quality of data collection and interpretation, especially as this seems to be the basis for the restrictions that are currently ruining so many lives (and the Scottish and UK governments are both guilty of this before I'm accused of Nicola bashing).

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us completely agree re how effective the vaccine will be. I haven't seen any stats yet on the efficacy of the various vaccines but I think for a vaccine to be classed as effective it only needs to be about 50%, with the results 95% confidence interval excluding it being lower than 30%. Obviously better than nothing but 50% (probably averaged and potentially lower in the elderly who it will initially be targeted at) wouldn't be as game changing as I think people are expecting. It's probably not going to be Contagion style, get the vaccine and you're safe.

The poor quality data, analysis and interpretation makes me so angry (I'm an actuary so similar requirement for drawing proper conclusions from good data)

I'm optimistic about the vaccine too. I think though that it's being pitched as a "cure" - get the vaccine, and you won't get it, ever. However I don't think that's realistic. I think the vaccine will reduce the severity of the illness in the most vulnerable, which is a GOOD THING! But they have oversold the chances of getting a total cure and people are still going to moan and whinge.

The thing I've learned most through covid is just how bad people are at evaluating risk. If I never hear the word "safe" again it will be too soon. Nothing is 100% safe.

I'm hopeful a vaccine starts making an impact but I hope we don't go back to 2019 normal - I want to wfh much more (which makes sense for me as most of the people I speak to are not in my Edinburgh office) and I hope people are much more aware of hygiene (although seeing people coughing and spitting in the streets now doesn't give me any confidence) and hand-shaking can GTF.

I don't think my office will go back fully. I had a permanent 3 day a week wfh agreed before we moved out - they would never have approved that previously. There not committing yet but it's pretty clear the whole 5 days in the office structure won't be back. Lloyds have also just announced everyone at home til spring. I think it'll be hard to try and reinstate full time office work after a year

Christ, I hope it does go back to proper normal: I loved my life pre Covid, for the first time ever.

(But yes, no more handshaking ever!)

Our office is completely unsuited to a pandemic - a sealed box with lots of narrow walkways. I only do a 4 day week anyway and I hope after this I can do most of it from home (I'm a packed lunch person before anyone accuses me of putting Pret out of business ).

I really don't like handshaking @WouldBeGood and I get really dry skin and eczema regularly so it can be physically uncomfortable as well.

Hope it gets back to 2019 normal. Didn’t know how good it was until now

I know couples that are WFH and it really hasn’t been good for thei4 relationships or mental health.