What COVID restrictions are heading our way?

[Happylittlethoughts]

Nivola not best pleased today, and rightly do . Any ideas on what the,restrictions will be? I know schools are being warned at LA level to prep for blended learning .
A 2 week limitation?

Well yes because they are. Surely that's what's happening now.

There is no social distancing in schools amongst the young people and if someone can explain to me how hundreds of children aged 16+ I'm all ears!

No social distancing in shops with very few supermarkets controlling entry numbers anymore.

Clear rise in house parties according to Police Scotland.

People are fed up. There are very few safety measures about that I can see.

Over 5% of tests are now positive. Last week it was 2%. That suggests a clear rise.

Because the testing capacity has been moved to areas with high numbers of cases @sonicbook.

Those presenting data and information (politicians, scientists, journalists) should be presenting it in easily understood way though. I firmly believe that If you genuinely understand something then you can easily explain and teach it to anyone (the secret life of machines anyone, brilliant tv from the 1980s) A lot of folk have an agenda to push too though.
It’s all a bit of a PR job too for politicians (I give you Angus Robertson being interviewed by Lewis Goodall, oops!)

The testing capacity has always responded to areas with high cases. Like when a couple of weeks ago a testing area popped up in Coatbridge to help with a localised outbreak.

The fact remains that the percentage of positive cases is rising. Are you suggesting that cases are not increasing?

Whatever Boris says, but about an hour before with an added twist, probably better.

This is exactly what will happen. People will get blamed for not being locked up enough, not wearing masks properly, not washing hands long enough etc etc when the reality is that A: Most people have been doing at least some of the measures and the majority have done most of the measures and B: none of that really makes any difference. The amount of "cases" doesn't really matter too much if those cases aren't resulting in deaths from covid or people seriously ill because of covid.

The positive rate in tests will rise because we are targeting people likely to have been on contact with someone who has it via track and trace and also because the tests are picking up other things as they aren't good enough. Just because someone is identified as testing positive, it doesn't mean that they are ill or will be ill.

There are also more people coming down with normal colds and flu and general bugs that are going for tests as it is that time of year. They might test positive but that doesn't mean that they are necessarily ill from covid and in any other year would dose themselves with paracetamol and crack on.

Well yes there is a rise in cases but it is not comparable to earlier in the year before mass testing was made available. I'm not disputing that cases are going up but many will be mild/asymptomatic and some false positives. The fact there are no mass gatherings, concerts, theatres, night clubs, sports events etc etc has to help.

@WaxOnFeckOff I genuinely hope you are correct.

My fear is that the death rate is currently low because it's younger people getting it. When this starts to spread through secondary schools and kids take it home in bigger numbers I worry about an increasing death rate.

I don't think the death rate will ever be like it was first time round because so many vulnerable people found themselves in the firing line. Those vulnerable people can't die again obviously and current exceptionally vulnerable people will be being very very careful I would imagine. There have also been developments in treatment.

The virus hasn't changed however and there were enough reports of healthy people getting very sick and dying to make me anxious. Not that I don't care about the vulnerable.

The hospital and death rate hasn't increased drastically yet but I believe it will and see little evidence to suggest it won't. Especially as flu season kicks in.

Cases are clearly going up. It’s what we can do about it that’s an acceptable solution that’s less clear. For all I don’t like NS I have acknowledged she’s been doing her best but she’s not stupid, she knows if people aren’t happy she’ll run the risk of losing the election next year. I suspect she’ll just do what England does and blame Boris if people are unhappy.

If you look at what 's happened in Spain- there was a six week lag between young people having high cases and older people having the same amount of cases as the young ones and dying. There was a table that showed it quite well.

sonic, sadly I think there will be more deaths from covid, I genuinely don't think it will be the same as the initial period though. I don't know if there will be excess compared to average but it doesn't seem likely that it will be too far from what is expected. I think the issue is that on a societal level it might not make any difference but obviously every person is an individual with family and people who love them. It always feels tragic losing someone, but it might feel worse if you feel it could have been prevented? We probably pass flu and other nasties on to the vulnerable all the time but we don't ever really think about it unless they are in hospital and we sanitise etc which would happen in a normal year anyway.

My BiL and friends mum both have terminal cancer, in the last couple of months many colleagues have lost parents. 4 in the last month and it's not a big team. My SiL has lost her Dad, there have been I think 4 fatalities on the road in my general vicinity. None of these are related to Covid.

So, unfortunately I think you are correct that deaths will rise, but I don't think any of what we are doing or that we increase will really make any difference on a societal level, will not visiting your frail aunt betty help prevent her catching this and dying this winter? Possibly. Will locking down the country mean that there are fewer covid deaths? Maybe. Will that be counterbalanced by an increase in other deaths and other issues? Definitely.

And on that note, I'm going to chill and try not to think about covid for a while.

I thing Nicola is worried that Boris has got her - he said on Tuesday he will announce further restrictions.

Nicola can announce on Monday - she's jumped the gun.
Nicola can announce after Boris - copycat.

Basically the whole COVID thing has shown up devolution for a farce. It should be managed UK wide first and for hotspots devolved to local health authorities.

A UK wide approch is needed and the FM has repeatedly asked for a Cobra meeting. The Welsh leader has also asked for a UK emergency meeting and said (in relation to the UK Government's refusal to hold one) that there's a 'gaping chasim' in the UK's response to Covid.

You're right that devolution is useless. Independence is needed as the English Government is not co operating with the devolved nations.

English Government?

Very interesting that Sturgeon is demanding a COBRA meeting now (to assign blame elsewhere) when she was quite happy to miss 6 earlier in the year.

Can’t see any politicians have much to crow about at this point - all this has revealed to me is that we need to fund top quality academic research in so many spheres.

I think it would be interesting to see that statistics of people who have died from non- covid related illnesses in these past few months and see how it compares. Where I live I have heard of more people who have died from other illnesses such as cancer etc than covid. Do they not matter anymore?

Do they not matter anymore?

Of course they matter, and that is why it is vital to prevent hospitals being swamped

You're right that devolution is useless. Independence is needed as the English Government is not co operating with the devolved nations.

Ah, the pesky ‘English government’ not enabling the nations and regions strain of Covid to be eliminated. If only the virus adhered to an independent strategy, it would be so much easier to allocate the furlough payments, right?

Uk Gov / Eng Gov / PM = Boris

I was replying to post above stating the need for a UK wide approach..

What a weird comment bytheloch.

I’ve wanted a joined up approach since the beginning @Scotslassie1 it’s probably more crucial than ever just now that all the nations are working with Westminster for a UK plan, but unfortunately I doubt any of them will put politics aside to put the UK people first.
English government is a prickly term for me, it’s a U.K. government with devolved aspects to the nations, thank goodness, as economically we/Scotland would be finished as a country if we had to support furlough alone.

I would support a more joined up approach if it was anybody but Boris in charge.

Actually furlough is just a loan which Scottish taxpayers will pay back (with interest). No different to what would happen in an independent Scotland.

Hello again everyone, interesting reading your comments.
Yesterday was hellish in Loch Lomond again. We are under additional restrictions here which are roundly ignored I think 😬
Also reading the alarmist articles on SQA exam cancellations. Surely teachers need warning of this