What COVID restrictions are heading our way?

[Happylittlethoughts]

Nivola not best pleased today, and rightly do . Any ideas on what the,restrictions will be? I know schools are being warned at LA level to prep for blended learning .
A 2 week limitation?

The science:

That was an interesting video!

Fed up with the whole thing

Complied with every rule and it’s got us approximately nowhere.

Yep, I know it's long but it's so worth watching.

Well according to the video, it certainly made little difference.

I'm starting to look at some of the recommended links as well.

It's not 'the science' it's a version of science.

Happy to look at something properly researched by esteemed experts that says different.

Which bits do you think are wrong?

There is a follow up video which answers a lot of further questions but I've not fully watched it yet.

Okay so look anywhere else. Sage, independent Sage etc...always a different story.

It's a compelling video but he's a chemical engineer is he not?

If it was as simple as 'this is the science' and here's a you tube link then surely we wouldn't be in this mess.

I'm highly sceptical about articulate scientists who don't actually work directly in medicine / public health disseminating seemingly common sense info. His website has alarm bells ringing for me as well. Seems to have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies.

I'm not a scientist though. Very far from it. Would be happy to have my skepticism proved wrong.

I'm more comfortable with the maths - the maths is important so I'll say this is the maths/stats rather than necessarily the science.

Happy to look at the Sage stuff, if there is anything compelling then I'm happy to post it.

Independent sage are unfortunately made up or lots of extremist individuals with axes to grind. One is a self-confessed communist party member I believe.

IMO lots of their members are simply using it as an opportunity to make political points.

This is the update video:

@Ecosse

Independent sage are unfortunately made up or lots of extremist individuals with axes to grind. One is a self-confessed communist party member I believe.

IMO lots of their members are simply using it as an opportunity to make political points.

A communist?! Noooooooo surely not. Who will protect the children? 😰

🙄

Well that makes a nice contrast for the hooray Henry crew in Westminster.

What I will say about this is that as an arts type person I did genuinely used to believe that science offered us a pretty definitive answer. Of course I expected progress and change etc but this has genuinely opened my eyes to the ways that data and maths can be manipulated.

I like the older guy. I can't remember the name now. A retired GP. Makes coronavirus videos. He totally soothes me!

Not just Glasgow and environs though. Edinburgh has had 123 cases in the last week too, which isn’t brilliant.

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

@GreyishDays

123 cases a week out of an area of 1 million people is still not a huge amount.

I believe a large number of these have been linked to an outbreak at a student accommodation, so hopefully that can be controlled.

Yeah, @Ecosse it’s just worse than it had been, proportionally. Didn’t realise that about a student outbreak though.
Population of Edinburgh is more like half a million isn’t it?

Think blended learning on the way, our school also told to get Plan B sorted.

Edinburgh is relatively low afaik, looking at the postcode checker.

123 cases out of a million people isn't a huge amount except that's not where it ends is it?

Could I ask a question about restrictions in Glasgow...?

I live in NE England and DD is thinking about Glasgow as uni destination. She's keen to visit for a day/night. She'd like to do this asap mainly because she's currently in hospital being treated for an eating disorder and her MH is not great and the idea of a day/night in Glasgow is something to hold on to...

I've been on the scot.gov covid page and can see cumulative cases and daily positives in Glasgow but I can't find a 7 day trend that shows figures - the 7 day trend I've found is a map showing hot/cold spots...

Is Glasgow really bad and going in the wrong direction - is it even possible to get self contained accommodation there at the moment (the scot.gov. site for restrictions says you can in unaffected areas but I'm presuming Glasgow city is all affected..)

Am not trying to bend the rules and if there was no other drivers around a Glasgow visit I'd happily postpone but if its not the most crazy idea on the planet I think it would give DD something to hold onto...

(PS -obviously we're in tighter restrictions in the NE but one of the side benefits of being in hospital is DD is getting 4 hourly temperature checks and covid tests every 5 days so I'm fairly confident we're not about to create a spike between NE England and Glasgow!)

@sonicbook

It can be where it ends if you have a testing and contact tracing system that can respond quickly to outbreaks before they spread.

Sadly we don’t seem to have that at the moment.

I think Ivor Cummins made a lot of sense in his analysis. I found the points made of historical patterns of seasonal and latitudinal variations in flu cases which are being repeated with Covid 19 interesting but ultimately of no consequence to the path of dealing with this virus our governments have chosen; we’ve got ourselves in a cycle of lockdowns now.

His biochemical engineering background should not matter. It’s normal in science to get an input from different disciplines, that’s how many breakthroughs are made. Often if you are too close you are in an echo chamber and you really can’t see the wood for the trees. Jez! Many highly skilled clinicians don’t have a clue about PCR, plasmids, T cells.

I looked on worldometer at various countries and they are not seeing the alarming deaths following infections. Sceptics argue that they are still to come. I’d like to think they are not.

I do take issue that we, under recommendations from WHO (whose leader has been accused of being too sympathetic to China in his actions in handling this pandemic) followed the lead of the communist People’s Republic of China who still have so much control over their people. For such a poor downtrodden country, an image that the west likes to project, there is a fair few international students paying international fees at our universities. international students are vital for the funding model our higher institutions have chosen, especially in Scotland.

Important to note that ( in Scotland) since August, 1 in 5 of those admitted to hospital and requiring acute care due to covid were under 45.
Myrtle things are open just now in Glasgow- restaurants/ bars etc but they could be closed at short notice so I'd maybe not risk it but if you're not too bothered about those sort of things, go for it.

Important to note that ( in Scotland) since August, 1 in 5 of those admitted to hospital and requiring acute care due to covid were under 45

So how many people were admitted to hospital requiring acute care due to covid since August? I would struggle to believe that it is in any way a statistically significant sample but is a soundbite so we all go "oooooh" and spread more fear to a different demographic.