Glasgow, East Renfrewshire and West Dumbartonshire restrictions

[Ginger1982]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53989021

I agree that "cases" isn't necessarily the best measure as testing has changed over time. I know a family who definitely had it in March (imported after a weekend in London) but none of them were tested as it wasn't happening then. Now, we're testing a lot more people - many of whom haven't any symptoms - and picking up all of the cases.

That's why hospital admissions are a more important measure, any graph you look at shows that those rates are so far down now compared with March/April. At the peak there were 200 people admitted to hospital each day, and 50ish deaths. Now we're down to 3ish admissions a day and the 7 day average of days is 0.3 per day. It's a VERY different picture.

Just read on the BBC website that at the height of the pandemic in March there was an estimate of 100,000 new cases per day, i.e. 20 times higher than reported.

So roughly 1000 per day in Scotland?

DH and I almost 100% had it in mid March but don't appear on any figures as testing wasn't available. Teen adult DSs must have had it too but didn't have any symptoms.

A lot of those in hospital won't necessarily have symptoms or be ill with covid either, e.g. Dall and break hip, admitted for broken hip, test positive for covid.

However, those figures and the death rates are probably the best indicators we have and they seem to be holding pretty steadily at low levels.

Makes sense - 100,000 cases a day would be 50 to 100 times what we're seeing at present. And the hospital admissions at the peak (which comes a few weeks after infection) are 50 to 100 times higher too.

Plus as well we know so much more now about how it affects care homes and the elderly and everything else we've learned since March.

My main gripe is that subtle shift from the entirely sensible "stay at home to protect the NHS" which was an achievable and reasonable thing to ask. We all saw the overwhelmed hospitals elsewhere.

But now it's "eradicate the virus" which is impossible without a vaccine. Plus the total and utter disregard for all of the other health issues people are suffering with, people's jobs, people's enjoyment and wellbeing of life in general because the only goal in life at present is to avoid getting covid.

I also agree that as we go on people are going to just stop complying. We have complied, we didn't see my parents for 6 months, first time we saw them we sat shivering, socially distanced in the garden because Covid, even though they live in an area with very low cases. We've cancelled birthday parties, not had people in the house above the limits, dealt with stroppy teens who couldn't see their mates, gone through the whole exams shitshow, worn our masks even though they're just awful, shuffled around one way systems and socially distanced.

But because of all the bams who won't/don't do any of that, are having big house parties and acting like idiots, we all have to suffer? They are punishing the wrong people.

@WaxOnFeckOff, roughly 10,000 (!) a day, so 2 orders of magnitude higher compared to today. True that exponential growth starts slowly and all of a sudden explodes, but now we are actually looking at it. If we can't still manage it, then really... give up on any containment measure because clearly they don't work.
Interesting that masks don't seem to have had any effect whatever. The trend was on the up and still is.

I find the "big/small house parties" a theory difficult to believe (always looking for the easy target to blame). The BBC says that if you look at ages, the main carrier is probably people going into work everyday, more than anything else.

@Arkadia

Just read on the BBC website that at the height of the pandemic in March there was an estimate of 100,000 new cases per day, i.e. 20 times higher than reported.

And that was assuming a death rate of 1%. If it’s lower than this that’s even higher infections. I remember the errant Catherine Calderwood saying way back before lockdown she estimated around 400000 people in Scotland had it at that time

I can’t wait to hear these new hospital figures as well when they’re released. I’ve been wondering for ages why ours seemed proportionately so much higher than England’s. She seems to be dragging her heels at getting a more accurate figure though.

@MadameBlobby, yes, quite.
Also, let's not forget a high percentage of the infections that are being being found are going to be false positives.

Sockyarn
But we are controlling it! Have you seen how few hospital admissions there are? People know what to do to avoid getting it, and to avoid passing it on.

Are we? I'd say these rolling restrictions are an indicator people do not know what they should be doing to avoid it flaring up and spreading? Because if people ALL did what they know the6 should be doing, we wouldn't be in this situation.

Also - re hospital admissions: What do those have to look like, to you, to be evidence that it's now out of control. Because I've read the key thing public health experts do is try to keep capacity in hospitals. Which means, some empty beds. If beds are full, and staff run off their feet, it's already too late. You don't want that. At that point, if the virus explodes, you're well and truly screwed.

Woukdbegood
Government shouldn’t be done by bowing to social media frothing.

I agree with you here. But it works all ways - includ8ng the frothing from the usforthem types. Science and expertise needs to lead this.
*
Waxonfekoff
I mean we are all just normal bods on here, I don't think any of us are scientists dealing with pandemics, so if we think of this things, presumably the people who are actually properly clever have also assessed that?*

They absolutely would have. They will have thought of things we can't even imagine too. It's what they're trained to do. We need to trust them.

Lookingforamindatwork
The UK government scientists sound very nervous.

That's my impression too, and it's quite worrying. I was watching a news programme a few days ago and they were interviewing a top scientist and he must have said "This is very serious" several times. He also tried to head off the idea that it wasn't a very risky illness.

*Sockyarn
But now it's "eradicate the virus" which is impossible without a vaccine. Plus the total and utter disregard for all of the other health issues people are suffering with, people's jobs, people's enjoyment and wellbeing of life in general because the only goal in life at present is to avoid getting covid. *

*[…]

But because of all the bams who won't/don't do any of that, are having big house parties and acting like idiots, we all have to suffer? They are punishing the wrong people.*

Is that really the line? I must have missed that completely. I don't think the goal is to avoid getting Covid. I think the goal is to stop it spreading to a point where the economy, mental health, jobs etc are completely and utterly destroyed.

And again, it's not a punishment. It might feel like one, but rationally, it's really not. It's a pragmatic response to a spreading virus.

If you want to 'punish' the people who deserve it, then maybe there needs to be a government campaign where the public are incentivised to snitch on the bam pots and rule breakers.

They absolutely would have. They will have thought of things we can't even imagine too. It's what they're trained to do. We need to trust them.

Except I don't trust them. Bring back Professor Pennington!

The numbers in hospital with Covid (again not necessarily becasue of covid) have been falling steadily sice late April and the numbers have been steady and below 300 for months. So unless we can demonstrate that the proportion of those who are in becasue of covid is rising, then essentially numbers are stable.

I think that the measures being taken can't really be justified without any evidence of issues from more positive tests.

I've very little affected tbh, I can go out for a meal and am not in area of the further restricted areas, i'm not desperate for a party and I've missed any chance of a holiday. I can work at home forever if necessary. I appreciate though that the mental health and other medical issues now need to be prioritised and people need to be able to get to work and earn a living. There is no balance to this anymore.

If you want to 'punish' the people who deserve it, then maybe there needs to be a government campaign where the public are incentivised to snitch on the bam pots and rule breakers.

Or even use the tools they already have. When was the last time you heard of anyone being fined or the police breaking up a house party?

They absolutely would have. They will have thought of things we can't even imagine too. It's what they're trained to do. We need to trust them.

Fine. But they also need to explain the rationale behind measures and not treat us like kids, whilst politicising the whole thing.

The situation does seem to be getting worse here than it is elsewhere in the UK if you look at the figures, population etc.

It will definitely get worse UK wide though once uni students are back.

@chocciechocface, I quite disagree. What you describe is the narrative that was sold.onto us at the outset
The message that is being sent by the SG is exactly what was some months ago: zero cases (just like lively Devi prescribed). That strategy went on all summer and has never been renounced, even though she now never mentions it explicitly. Don't forget, not even New Zealand has accomplished that.
Look at the logic, over the summer we were all locked up with next to zero cases and zero deaths. There are many more cases now and we are "much" freer. So what was the point of all that?
If they don't start admitting that they are comparing apples and pears when looking at the "data" from last winter/spring we'll get nowhere.
Take the all important masks: have they made any difference at all? I would say not as the trend has been constantly on the up.

Do they have a long term plan? Again, not at all. Certainly you cannot keep people apart indefinitely (and they just won't anyway and the more you try the less they'll comply). And if you really must, keep the big guns for when you need them, i.e. very likely later on when the cold sets in.
What we need is a drastic change in narrative, acknowledging that the virus is here and won't go away and that we must prepare for "damage control". Unfortunately that implies that what we have been doing all summer has been an utter waste of time, but if they don't do it, then be prepared to be locked down for months to come, bams or no bams.

Sums it up @Arkadia.

@MadameBlobby

They absolutely would have. They will have thought of things we can't even imagine too. It's what they're trained to do. We need to trust them.

Fine. But they also need to explain the rationale behind measures and not treat us like kids, whilst politicising the whole thing.

I don't really understand this. I don't try and read the guidance but I think I get it. What is it that needs to be explained?

Cases hit a point where they could start careening out of control in an area. Reducing contact between people is the simplest way to stop the spread. Homes are particularly vulnerable because people relax and forget themselves, and you're probably indoors etc etc.

Pubs and restaurants are open for the economy and jobs sakes, but there are 'rules' in those places to try limit contact and spread.

I don't think it's workable to have similar rules for private homes. Far simpler and more effective to limit contact for a short period of time.

@MadameBlobby

If you want to 'punish' the people who deserve it, then maybe there needs to be a government campaign where the public are incentivised to snitch on the bam pots and rule breakers.

Or even use the tools they already have. When was the last time you heard of anyone being fined or the police breaking up a house party?

My understanding is that the police have only very recently been given the powers to break up parties larger than 15 people.

I think, as well, the guidance and laws are having to change as the government sees how the public respond over time. It's all very fluid.

There are many more cases now and we are "much" freer. So what was the point of all that?

I think things have changed enough to enable things to be more free. I don't think enough has changed, but I don't think your line of logic is logical.

I hope PPE is more available now than it was; more treatments are available; there is a greater understanding of the disease; vulnerable people are still being careful; the public (some of them anyway) is more aware of how their actions could impact on the vulnerable; schools have measures in place to limit spread; etc etc

Britain now, is very different to Britain before lockdown.

I don't think any of this could have happened without the breathing space provided by lockdown. And if lockdown hadn't happened, I think we'd be in a very different place now.

I'm flinching at the words "damage control" because I read 'deaths' in there. I do not think we need to be writing off living lives when we are in a position slowly open up, with controls, while we wait for a vaccine.

I do wish testing was better though.

Well, why I’ve had to tell my kids they can’t go inside a friend’s house but can sit next to the same kid at school for 6 hours. Why household members of contacts now need to isolate when previously they didn’t. You might not want to know the rationale behind these ever changing restrictions on your liberty but it doesn’t mean that people who don’t think like you do are wrong.

My understanding is that the police have only very recently been given the powers to break up parties larger than 15 people

They’ve had the power to disperse gatherings since the start of lockdown.

I don't want to have a party either.

But I do think it's ridiculous that DD now can't have a friend over to watch Netflix, even though they've been sitting together in class all day. And that DH and I can't have friends over for a meal (as we did on Saturday) but we could meet the same friends at the pub.

They are most definitely pursuing this unachievable policy of elimination, and the narrative is that if that doesn't happen it's the public's fault, we're all being naughty, not wearing our masks, not socially distancing, having parties. Not that the strategy was unachievable in the first place, without a vaccine.

We absolutely need to live with this. We're not going to see a vaccine for a year at least. We have had 6 months of utter shit, and have stored up a whole host of medical issues for the future because the NHS switched into a National Covid Service. There is most definitely a balance to be struck but at the moment the Scottish Government are getting it very wrong, shutting down the economy and stopping people leading lives for an illness which is killing 0.3 people a day.

@MadameBlobby

Well, why I’ve had to tell my kids they can’t go inside a friend’s house but can sit next to the same kid at school for 6 hours. Why household members of contacts now need to isolate when previously they didn’t. You might not want to know the rationale behind these ever changing restrictions on your liberty but it doesn’t mean that people who don’t think like you do are wrong.

And I have the same issue with my child but I tell them the truth.

What I said to her was that at school they're in their bubbles, they are being monitored with hand washing rules, if anyone gets sick they are isolated immediately, the classrooms are cleaned and fogged ruthlessly every day, objects are controlled (I.e. they aren't allowed to take school things home etc), activities that increase risk of Covid are limited (indoor PE etc). That none of this happens in people's homes. In other words: school and homes are different.

We haven't had restrictions put in visiting in our area yet, but if we do I'll tell them it's temporary and simply to get cases under control in our area.

Or even use the tools they already have. When was the last time you heard of anyone being fined or the police breaking up a house party?

I wonder if they'll fine the organisers / attenders of the usforthem march on Saturday. Hundreds of people there, no masks, no distancing.

Or maybe the government will be too scared of the backlash.

I agree they shouldn't back down to social media, they should be following science.

if we do I'll tell them it's temporary

Is it? Because none of these new restrictions have been given an end point. It's all totally up in the air and if you tell your children that it's temporary that's untrue. It might be a fortnight, a month, until the New Year, 6 months, a year. Nobody knows.

They are most definitely pursuing this unachievable policy of elimination, and the narrative is that if that doesn't happen it's the public's fault, we're all being naughty, not wearing our masks, not socially distancing, having parties. Not that the strategy was unachievable in the first place, without a vaccine.

Exactly. Also if this is happening everywhere is it not maybe it’s just the nature of the virus that this will happen?

I don’t particularly want to get Covid but that is my choice. I will take the measures I need to to avoid it as I have been doing throughout. Other people are free to do the same. We saw before lockdown that people were actually very good at self monitoring the threat. Me and all my friends and family had locked down before it was officially announced and I’d cut back my already limited socialising and seeing family when schools went back. If people don’t care whether they get it then they are the ones who need to live with the consequences if they do no matter how foolish we may think that is. We are always being told we should take responsibility for our own health and not expect the government to make decisions for us, I don’t disagree, but it’s been turned on it’s head now for this one illness.