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Scotsnet

Welcome to Scotsnet - discuss all aspects of life in Scotland, including relocating, schools and local areas.

If you voted no in the independence referendum...

442 replies

HirplesWithHaggis · 18/05/2019 12:36

...is Brexit changing your mind?

I've seen a number of people on social media (including MN) saying that they voted No in 2014 but would say Yes, or are starting to come round to the idea, in a second indyref because of Brexit. Sometimes it's because of the loss of freedom of movement, sometimes it's because Scotland's Remain vote has been completely ignored (see also Irish border issue), sometimes just the way our MPs are treated in Westminster.

Often it's reluctant, which I can fully understand. Have you changed your mind, are you swithering? Might you be persuaded?

For probably unnecessary disclosure, I voted Yes, and will do again. I am not a member of any political party/group. I'm just curious.

OP posts:
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StreetwiseHercules · 13/06/2019 09:59

Bye then.

IckleWicklePumperNickle · 13/06/2019 20:16

No and still a know. Even more so now.

IckleWicklePumperNickle · 13/06/2019 21:05

Jesus it should say no.

Nyx · 13/06/2019 21:37

Yes then, and yes now. I have never heard a good reason for Scotland to stay in the union. Plenty of emotive stuff about breaking up a country (the UK isn't a country, it's a political union.) But to my mind, the union is not working for Scotland any more. Being in this UK is not good for Scotland economically or socially. Scotland's elected representatives are ignored and jeered at. The wishes of a large majority of Scotland, from all over Scotland, to stay in the EU have been ignored. We're not just being taken out of the EU, we're heading for a hard brexit. It's a disaster. We are being dictated to by the Conservative party. Scotland hasn't voted Tory for a remarkably long time. And not by a small margin either. We are massively non-Tory. Yet it looks like we're going to have Boris or someone equally unbelievably bad as a PM.

Scotland needs independence so that we can make our own decisions on EU membership, non-membership or somewhere in between. For example, Scotland needs immigration, and this is being denied to us.

Scotland's carefully managed food and drink industries will be ruined in a trade deal with the US. Standards will be lowered in a race to the bottom. Scotland's brand is already being obliterated.

Scotland has a lot to give. We are one of the most beautiful countries in the world, with a friendly population. We have good hospitals, schools and universities. We are blessed with lots and lots of water, wind power, we have oil reserves, gas reserves, hydro power, farmland, sea area, forestry, fishing waters, tourism, exports. We have resources that many other countries can only dream of. And we have a small population. On a per capita basis Scotland could be very rich. I've said before, we have good resources and a small population, the very recipe for success. Hell, we may even be able to pay a pension that isn't the lowest in the developed world if we are not propping up the UK and its extravagances.

I genuinely don't understand the argument that being independent would be such a disaster for Scotland. How could that be? With our resources? Yes, there would be a lot to put in place. But unlike Brexit, there is a precedent. Plenty of them. Something like 56 countries have gained independence from the UK - including Ireland. And not one of them has come back.

Yes, we'd have to disentangle stuff. But we wouldn't make such a mess of it as people are making out. We already have our own laws, NHS, education system and parliament. Plus as I say it's been done before - over and over. For me, a bit of work to give ourselves the power to make our own decisions - like a normal country, like any other normal country - would be worth it.

We would have plenty of leverage in any negotiations. Not like the UK and Brexit. We would have to negotiate a fee for keeping Trident parked near a major city until the rest of the UK figured out somewhere to put it. This could potentially be fairly hefty. Also Scotland has most of the oil fields.

Yes, we currently do most of our trade with rUK. Yes, we'd have to negotiate. Can you imagine rUK not wanting to trade with Scotland? Scotland is England's largest export market. I seriously don't think we would find all trade would stop on Scottish independence. And Scotland is in favour of being the EU. And the EU have said an independent Scotland would be welcome. That's 500 million or so customers.

Anyway, that's just my take. And the referendum was, in the main, very peaceful. Given that it was of such importance and polarised views to such an extent, it was remarkably peaceful. 'No' posters were removed, were they? So were yes posters. I have seen a car with yes stickers in the window that had paint thrown over the bonnet. And the scenes in George Square were shameful and intimidating to everyone I know, yes, and no voters, and we know what side they were on. I work in a law firm and the partner I work for looks down on independence supporters. I personally do not recognise this 'no voters were intimidated' stuff. Not the ones in my family and among my colleagues and friends. Neither were the yes voters. We discussed and debated and argued but didn't intimidate or fall out, any of us. There are nutters on both sides and that is true of everything.

Shenanagins · 13/06/2019 22:34

Nyx my husband is Scottish and not very friendly 😀.

That aside, our education has got worse over the past 10 years. We used to have a far better education system than England and now it’s dire.

As for the hospitals, have you forgotten people dying in our brand new hospital in Glasgow as a result of pigeon poo?

My opinion on independence remains the same, until we can get clarity on what that would actually mean, similar to the questions raised as a result of the brexit vote then I will remain a no voter.

Nyx · 13/06/2019 22:45

We now have absolutely no idea what Scotland in the UK will mean any more. We can probably look at other small independent countries and find more clarity. What will Brexit mean for any of us except that it will be bad for Scotland. How can it possibly be otherwise? Whereas independence is normal. Should be normal.

StreetwiseHercules · 13/06/2019 22:56

Nyx has absolutely nailed it. Who could honestly read those arguments and be opposed to political independence for the country you live in?

Nyx · 13/06/2019 22:59

Also, listen to yourself. Talking down our education and our hospitals. How is being part of the union helping them? It isn't. Do you think the NHS in the rest of the UK is any better than in Scotland?
I have news for you. It isn't. And education in Scotland isn't as bad as you are making out.

Are you saying that Scotland will be incapable of running good schools and hospitals when it's an independent country?

If you think that Tories or Labour or Lib Dems or any other party would do any better, ironically they would be far more likely to have a chance at it in an independent Scotland. They don't look likely to be voted into power in Scotland any time soon.

Nyx · 13/06/2019 23:00

Thanks Hercules. You'll have figured out my last post was to Shenanagins!

StreetwiseHercules · 13/06/2019 23:13

There is also a glorious opportunity for an independent Scotland which will welcome immigration. It’s likely 500,000 will move from England alone, and they will bring their money with them giving Scotland its biggest economic shot in the arm in its history.

Business is already preparing with huge investment in Scotland, just look at what Barclays is doing in Glasgow with its new campus for 6000 workers. They know the writing in the wall.

Lots of overseas investment which would have gone to London in the past will come to Scotland.

Shenanagins · 13/06/2019 23:15

I wasn’t talking them down, merely stating facts.

As for education, we no longer participate in international tables so can’t compare on international standards and coupled with rising illiteracy.

I don’t doubt that Scotland can be an independent country but I’m not going to walk blindly into something without knowing exactly what that is - for reference, the current brexit mess.

Nyx · 13/06/2019 23:22

But Shenanagins, that's no longer an argument that holds water. It kind of was, back in 2014 - the status quo and the fact that there was no way of knowing EXACTLY what independence would look like or entail - but now, there is no such thing as the status quo. Can you tell me how the current brexit mess, and any foreseeable future, will be any better for Scotland than independence? Please? Because I seriously can't see how it could be. I feel sorry for No voters who genuinely wanted the status quo before, who believed that it would continue. We are staring at a Boris for PM, Brexit UK. God help us.

StreetwiseHercules · 13/06/2019 23:28

“I don’t doubt that Scotland can be an independent country but I’m not going to walk blindly into something without knowing exactly what that is - for reference, the current brexit mess.”

Walking blindly into Boris’ Brexit Britain is exactly what you are doing.

BohemianDream · 13/06/2019 23:34

I'm curious as to why so many people would be hesitant to vote yes because of the state of Brexit. Much of the reason Brexit isn't working is that Westminster just isn't working. Surely that just makes it clearer that we do need devolution?

StreetwiseHercules · 13/06/2019 23:35

It’s because some people don’t like to admit they were wrong or that they were fooled so will cling to any excuse they will cling to.

chocolategivesmehives · 14/06/2019 07:02

Bohemia’s, our ties with the EU are not as tight as Scotland with the uK, and we’re seeing how hugely difficult it is to separate the UK from the EU. Imagine how much more difficult to separate Scotland from the rest of the UK.

Streetwise, where are these 500,000 English people going to live? Where are their children going to go to school? Will they all want to live in the CB? My drive to work is going to be worse than it is now!

Next, can you provide some kind of citation for your statement above that Scotland is England’s biggest export market. I know the reverse is true, but haven’t been able to find anything that confirms your statement.

chocolategivesmehives · 14/06/2019 07:03

Sorry, Nyx, not next.

StreetwiseHercules · 14/06/2019 07:36

Wow. What a mindset. Is there any point?

Littlebluetinofdorcaspins · 14/06/2019 10:45

Just read the whole thread, and I'm starting to think StreetwiseHercules is a plant for the No campaign! The insults that are being levelled at people who would vote No in any future referendum are probably only entrenching their position.

StreetwiseHercules · 14/06/2019 13:27

Which insults? Be very specific.

comoagua · 14/06/2019 17:42

Ah here we are, back to simplistic binary choices, go independent, avoid Brexit, when Brexit is a massive economic game changer that changes the EU and the whole political and economic landscape. Populist nationalist answers have got us to this pass, so the answer is even more of it?

Erm, pass.

Nyx · 15/06/2019 00:01

Please stop trying to conflate Brexit with Scottish independence. They are not remotely similar.

From a recentish blog: From [http://www.simonvarwell.co.uk/scexits-not-brexit/]

With Brexit, nobody really knew what was being proposed. ... we still don’t. Sure, it’s either going to be May’s deal or a “no deal” Brexit, but that’s a question that is beyond I think the best political soothsayers, and even then the impacts of either are going to be dangerously unpredictable in a lot of ways.

Part of the problem was that there was minimal research and preparation done by those who advocated Brexit (or by those who called the referendum). Throughout the campaign and – more alarmingly – since the vote, we have seen the scary spectacle of different groups of people arguing for different kinds of Brexit, and all claiming some sort of mandate from the 52% who voted for whatever it is they voted for.
A soft Brexit, or hard? Norway, Switzerland or Canada? I have no idea, and neither did they. Yes, there were some commonalities – the idea of us being a member of the EU would of course end under all Brexit visions, and there was a fairly broad consensus across Brexiteers that anything that kept those nasty Poles out would be a good thing (albeit that bizarrely many supporters of leaving seemed to believe it would help to keep those nasty non-Europeans out too). But beyond that, nobody seemed to have a clear idea about how closely we would align with the EU’s rules or whether indeed we’d remain subject to them or not.

Contrast that with the plans for Scottish independence. The Scottish Government produced in 2013 the weighty tome “Scotland’s Future”, a 650-page book (and website) that outlined their plans for how an independent Scotland would be created and what it looked like. It covered pretty much every aspect of the independence process, responsibilities of the newly independent government, and relations with the rest of the UK and other countries in the world. It was a massive piece of work.

Yes, you can disagree with the contents of the book (indeed, 55% did so at the ballot box). Yes, you can dispute the viability or desirability of the proposals. Yes, you can call the Scottish Government optimistic, misguided, deluded or whatever. And let’s not forget that even many across the pro-independence movement took issue with parts of the book. But for the purposes of this blog post, the quality of the content of Scotland’s Future is not the point. The point is that the Scottish Government put the work in and came up with some clear ideas. While we can dispute how much the proposals would hold up in the negotiations with the UK or in the early years of independence, what is beyond dispute is the mandate it would have given the Scottish Government as they began those negotiations.

Plans can be good, or they can be bad. But plans are plans. And it’s fair to say that the Scottish Government had one, and those advocating Brexit did not.

Negotiations

Linked to that is one seemingly small detail but one which Brexit has proved to be incredibly important. And it’s one I’ve been thinking about often.

One of the most impressive aspects of the campaign for Scottish independence was the cross-party nature, with supporters of the SNP, Greens and small hard left parties lining up with those of no stated party and admittedly small numbers of supporters of the Unionist parties.

More than that, the Scottish Government envisaged what it described as “Team Scotland” being involved in the proposed eighteen-month negotiation period, which would be made up of negotiators from across the Scottish political spectrum. The idea was that politicians from all parties and none would be a part of the Scottish Government’s teams in the negotiations with the UK Government – those who had been fighting each other throughout the independence referendum would, on the day after a Yes vote, receive invitations to work together to get the best deal for Scotland.

While it was a great political gesture, it was also a very practical step. Imagine, to take just two examples, how valuable the perspectives of former chancellor and Better Together chair Alistair Darling or the then Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander might have been in the finance side of the negotiations. Yes, you might have chosen to criticise the competence of those two individuals, and yes they might have rejected the invitation. But the key point is that the Scottish Government stated all along that such a cross-party approach would have been their preference.

Contrast that with Brexit, where – in a change that is of monumental significance to the UK – the UK Government has refused to work with others, where the idea of a government of national unity has never been voiced by anyone other than fringe voices, and the Labour Party has committed itself to bringing down, rather than working with, the Conservatives. Whether you like Brexit or not, the sight of Westminster parties battling like ferrets in a sack has been unedifying, embarrassing given that the EU has been watching, and above all a missed opportunity. Add to that the disregard that the UK Government has shown to the Scottish or Welsh Governments’ views on Brexit, or indeed to the views of any other parts of society who have principled or constructive points to bring to the table.

There was, and remains, no sense that the UK wishes to leave in any manner that represents togetherness or consensus. And that, whether we end up leaving or not, will reap an ugly harvest politically and socially.

Nyx · 15/06/2019 00:09

Apart from anything else, leaving the EU is unprecedented. Whereas as I said earlier, leaving the UK has been done before, by many countries. There are procedures. It's not the same at all. It's disingenuous to say it is.

comoagua · 15/06/2019 13:21

It’s the SNP’s own sound bites that are continually linking Brexit and Independence - making it out Brexit consequences to be a choice avoided by going independent Nyx, we’re not arguing about leaving procedures although I’m sure you’re right, breaking up a 300 year old union will be super duper easy

Nyx · 15/06/2019 13:57

Well for Scotland, having Brexit forced on us is a direct consequence of being in the union. Our elected politicians not being at the table in any talks and negotiations is a direct consequence of being in this (oh so precious) union. The consequences of being independent would be the ability to choose the path we take, the votes of the Scottish people would directly affect what choices were made. Like any normal independent country.

I'll ignore your sarcasm as you've ignored the majority of my posts.