If you voted no in the independence referendum...

[HirplesWithHaggis]

...is Brexit changing your mind?

I've seen a number of people on social media (including MN) saying that they voted No in 2014 but would say Yes, or are starting to come round to the idea, in a second indyref because of Brexit. Sometimes it's because of the loss of freedom of movement, sometimes it's because Scotland's Remain vote has been completely ignored (see also Irish border issue), sometimes just the way our MPs are treated in Westminster.

Often it's reluctant, which I can fully understand. Have you changed your mind, are you swithering? Might you be persuaded?

For probably unnecessary disclosure, I voted Yes, and will do again. I am not a member of any political party/group. I'm just curious.

are any no voters able to give solid facts re Scotland being better under Westminster than as a normal independent country?

I don't think anyone is in a position to give facts about what outcome will be better. No one can predict the future.

But the benefit of the status quo is that you do know the answer to a lot of the questions people will be asking.

We know what currency we will use, we know there won't be a hard border, we know how the Barnett formula functions, we know what our armed forces comprise of.

We don't know if these things are better than the alternative. I will listen to the proposed alternative when the time comes. But it has to consist of more than emotional appeals. I'm a facts girl - I'll be looking out for them.

No voters are able to give facts, just as yes voters are. Both sides facts will be selected to represent their perspective in the best light and are unlikely to be believed by the other side. However, a ‘yes’ vote is generally an ideological position; rather than being part of a larger ‘normal independent country’ (the UK), they want to be a smaller ‘normal independent country’. Whether that ultimately leads to a better economy/quality of life matters less than the desire to be independent of England.

Hirples, I can't tell if you were joking re the hard border. If you're serious, then indy is simply a non starter. Why on earth would we put a hard border at the metaphorical bottom of our garden?

I travel to England very regularly, the idea of a hard border there is simply ridiculous. And changing currency to go for a night in York, nah.

I understand that for nationalists, principle is extremely important and all practical worries can be brushed aside as project fear or just selfishness. But people vote in private, and Scotland simply will not tick a box to put hard borders and currency changes so close to home.

Morris, the EU has 41 borders with non EU states. Things go just fine. You seem in shock at the thought that Scotland and England might have a border. Why? If one of the two countries wants to be in the customs Union and single market and the other doesn't, then I guess there would have to be some sort of border. Although of course we've been told that an invisible border in NI is possible

Other border countries deal with it and travelers deal with it without the slightest difficulty. We have got used to not having a border, and we can get used to having one. It wouldn't be the end of the world.

That's my take. Paul Kavanagh has blogged recently on this and I'm pasting some of his article here as it has some food for thought:

Despite the claims of Boris Johnson and others, an independent Scotland would not be forced to join the Schengen Zone, which permits passport free travel between most EU states. Ireland is not a member of the Schengen Zone, instead being a member of the Common Travel Area of the British Isles along with the UK, the Isle of Man, and the Channel Islands. Ireland will continue to be a member of the Common Travel Area following Brexit. So would an independent Scotland. You won’t be asked for your passport at Gretna or Berwick or Carter’s Bar.

The Schengen agreement between EU states was all about removing barriers to travel. It would be a gross perversion of the spirit of the Schengen Treaty to use it to impose barriers to travel where none currently exist. Scotland’s only land border is with England, which means that travel between Scotland and EU states necessarily involves either a flight or a ferry journey, trips which for security reasons demand the production of photographic ID in order to travel. Forcing Scotland to join the Schengen Zone would produce a net gain of zero, while introducing the need for passport checks on Scotland’s only land border. It’s not going to happen, and anyone who suggests that it would is indulging in ridiculous scaremongering.

Since the EU is happy for Ireland to remain a member of the Common Travel Area of the British Isles, it will also extend the same concession to Scotland. However, at some point in the future, should the rUK decide that it wishes to rejoin the EU, then Scotland and Ireland would be in a position to insist that it can only do so if it signs up to the Schengen Accords, which Scotland and Ireland could then also join allowing us passport free travel to everywhere in the British Isles as well as most of Europe. Then Scotland will be able to dictate terms to Westminster. Ha. And indeed. Ha. Ha.

There will be no hard border between Scotland and the rest of the UK following independence. Private travellers will continue to journey unimpeded between Scotland and the rUK. Trade between Scotland and the rUK will continue. Even in the worst case scenario, there would only be electronic checks on commercial vehicles, but even that worst case scenario is vanishingly unlikely. If there is no need for infrastructure on the Irish border, there is no need for any on the Scottish border either. The rUK can’t have it both ways. It just wants people in Scotland to think it can in order to scare, threaten, and intimidate us into voting against independence.

But there’s another consideration here. An independent Scotland will be able to do what Ireland does. When Ireland became independent its trade was overwhelmingly with the rest of the UK. Ireland was impoverished, poor, and its economy was weak. As an independent state and a member of the EU, Ireland has been able to develop its trading ties with other EU states, which has benefited the Irish economy enormously. An independent Scotland would be able to do the same. Independence opens up vast opportunities for Scotland. It would permit the development of direct exports to other countries, exports which currently go through England. Scotland could develop container ports and terminals, and see a massive growth in its direct trade with other nations. And all the while, the border with England will remain open.

I'm in England and had no vote, but I was anxious that Scotland should vote in the indyref to stay in the United Kingdom.

But things are different now and the UK is finished as a meaningful entity. Northern Ireland will be leaving before long. I could not really blame Scotland for wanting to find its own way back to the EU.

In simple terms, why is the border between rUk and Ireland such a huge problem for negotiating brexit if a border between Scotland and rUk wouldn't be?

Morris. Really? Check the history.

Meant to continue- there are no simple terms about that history. It involves sectarianism, violence and goes very deep.

To an outsider it's hard to understand. Boris Johnson is being dangerously flippant about it talking about getting rid of the backstop etc.

Ireland dropped its corporation tax to 12.5% (U.K. is 28%) so snaffled companies from the U.K.
If we leave EU we could do the same.

Why would an independent Scotland drop it's taxes if the whole point is to get a left wing government? I'd expect taxes to go up, not down, to fund the programme of public spending.

I did and would still vote no to leaving UK and no to leaving EU. I voted to remain in UK taking into consideration the liklihood of us having a UK wide referendum and cannot understand how some appear to think that wasn't a possibility. It was very much discussed at the time.

I also struggle to understand the ideas behind leaving UK for "independence" from Westminster but a desire to remain in EU under Brussels. We would of course be out of EU regardless and would have had to reapply, something which was agreed upon at time of Scottish referendum.

Scotland chose to remain in UK. That means further votes for anything including Brexit are for UK as a whole. Otherwise where does it end, my household voted to remain in EU so we will be EU citizens, my neighbours did not so will participate in Brexit?

The money spent from both sides in Scottish referendum could have been put to much better use such as reducing need for food banks for our citizens. Repeating this spend every few years until the vote is leave UK appears counter productive and genuinely ignoring the will of the Scottish people. I personally don't know anyone who voted to stay in UK who have now changed their minds.

Instead of complaining about Westminster government are doing this wrong we need to be being more proactive. For example, English and Welsh families are using food banks, not all of them want Tory leadership, why don't we work on fixing whatever our perceived problems are together? Instead of assuming if we leave UK things will sort themselves out.

Might have turned into a bit of a rant sorry! Long story short, my vote wouldn't change.

@Calyx72 but that is exactly the point - a hard border between NI and the ROI would be disastrous due to the political history of those two countries. That's why avoiding a hard border has been such a priority for those negotiating Brexit.

Despite that, it hasn't been possible to simply say 'fine - let's not have a border.' The reason for that isn't simply down to Schengen. It's because the European Union operates as a customs union, and that requires external borders between member and non-member states.

If it were as simple as saying 'fine let's just not have a border', we would be doing that in NI / ROI. But it isn't. The EU needs there to be some way of protecting the integrity of the customs union. If Scotland were to be part of that and RUK not, there would have to be a border.

It's possible that a technical solution could be found to this. It might not be an issue the SNP chooses to focus on in the next referendum, given that Scotland won't be in the EU immediately post independence anyway. It wouldn't be a live issue until Scotland sought to join the EU, at which point it would require to be negotiated. But it's something that I have significant concerns about and will need to see sensible solutions for before I consider voting for independence.

And for those who think only the elderly voted no. I'm 28, husband 29. We are both very no. No voting siblings in family of similar age. Three of our parents voted yes. One grandparent SNP supporter and adamant we should leave EU. Only yes voting sibling quite clear their vote was influenced by their love of the film Braveheart.

Assumption about age relating to political preferences isn't much more sensible than saying you must have voted x because of your race, religion or football team.

Owl, as far as I'm aware nobody on this thread has mentioned age. And in my experience it's always, always a no voter who brings up Braveheart. Not sure why but I expect it's to try and paint independence supporters as being a bit dim/easily led/influenced by a movie.

Nyx

No voter last time and no voter for the foreseeable. Assuming Scotland joins the EU this article covers how other EU / non EU countries manage their borders - I don’t want to see any of these set up between us and England. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44054594 . I run a small business sending nearly all orders to rUK via RM (couriers don’t do letters) and no SNP representative I’ve spoken to/ written to can tell me vaguely what to expect if we separate - it’ll just be ‘negotiated’ . Details in the grand scheme of things but the end of my business if I have to pay EU postage to England as I do to Ireland. Some reps even disputed the higher postage ‘because we’re so close it doesn’t make sense’ - the glib attitude to facts angers me.

And a wee comment about ‘Braveheart’ - you may not know of anybody that believes the movie but there’s lots out there. DS1, 20, a keen historian has tried and failed to correct the beliefs of friends rooted in the movie which they treat as a really cool documentary.

DS3 is still at school and is disappointed they’ve withdrawn Spanish and German and are bringing in Old Scots. I can’t think of ANY reason to do this apart from to create a feeling of being different and keeping historic grievances alive. DS1 has had personal visits to the house from SNP each time he’s been able to vote to convince him to vote SNP, they’ve asked to speak to him alone (on the door step) when I’ve hung around education...indoctrination ...it scares me.

@nolassie - no idea what you do but it bizarre that postage to England would end your business if Scotland were an independent nation when I can order both vast and tiny quantities of goods from China and south east Asia at little transport cost.

I personally don’t believe even a hard border with England would be the end of the world. Our trade would be on the same basis of the rest of the EU with RUK - if they chose to put up barriers, yes we would have to have a border but their refusal to trade freely with the EU would bring huge benefits to us as their free trading EU members northern neighbour. Investment these days is very mobile- if RUK don’t want the benefits from EU membership, we do.

I don’t see the issue with a border tbh in the long term. In the long term we may be able to have a customs union or common travel area but in the short term, RUKs decision to be hostile to its largest trading partner must be respected.

Also- why should the SNP not speak to your adult son alone, nolassie? He is entitled to his own opinion.

Also the withdrawal of French and German (if true) are likely more to do with budget cuts than “keeping historic grievances alive”. What a strange thing to say.

Yes and always Yes.
Nolassie would you mind divulging which Constituency you live in? The SNP would not encourage canvassers to ask to speak to young people alone. If this is happening then the party would like to know, so that further training could be given, as this would not be the norm.

@nutcracker - no reason why they shouldn’t speak to someone alone who is of voting age (as pp says he is) if he is happy to talk to them. It sounds like he doesn’t share nolassies politics which is up to him. He shouldn’t have to face undue pressure from her either.

I agree Zsazsanunu but her Inference was that they were insisting on speaking to young people alone, to indoctrinate them . I don't believe any SNP branch would encourage canvassers to do that.

Canvassers could ask to speak to her adult son alone and Nolassie could say ‘no’ if she wanted to - she should feel under no pressure to leave her adult son alone to speak to canvassers either. If he wants to speak to them alone that is up to him to say to her to to seek them out. Canvassers are not the police - no one is required to do anything they say.

zsazsajuju I’m business to consumer mainly with small wholesale on the side. As I said I send letters and large letters via Royal Mail because they are too small and low value to go via courier. RUK is about 90% of my market. For RM the world is split into Uk, Europe (EU and Non) , World 1 and world 2. If we’re not in the UK , postage will rise for a ‘large letter’ from £1.32 to £3.95 (>100gm) - that’s the situation going from the north to the south of Ireland - no official SNP person has been able to say otherwise - though lots like yourself rubbish the worry. I know you can buy goods on eBay etc and pay next to nothing in postage - I hate to think how that’s possible in human terms but its true. Luckily we have workers rights and taxes So when sending something there with RM or a courier price comparison site its not the same story. I’ve looked at getting items made in vetted factories in China but import costs completely negate any savings made (not high profit items and several hundred pounds carriage for I think 10,000 items ) Perhaps you import far more than that but I have neither the finances or storage for bigger quantities and it’s made me realise I want to be UK based for manufacturing as part of my ethos.

rUK is £48.9b in exports from Scotland compared to £14.9b to EU and £17.6b to rest of the world. 30% of what we export to RoW goes across the border to English ports / rail/ airports for onward journey . We are going to be hit massively if there are complications of any sort at the border with our main trading partner and it’s going To take a fantastic effort to recoup that lost trade deficit let alone get positive growth.

DS1 More than happy to talk to SNP alone, it’s me that felt uneasy- I must admit to feeling a bit anxious if anyone wants to see me specifically alone so prob just part of that. Canvaser wasn’t interested in talking to me or other neighbours but made a bee line up the road to the next teenagers house. DS quotes Nicola Sturgeon “judge me on education” and that’s what he’s done. He needs no help from me to form his views and become a no voter. I don’t really want to say my constituency as I prob going to say enough outing things and I quite believe they are not acting within guidelines just as when they stood outside the school gates talking to children and got pulled up for it. However John Sweeny’s visited recently, we’ve had Tricia Marwick present prizes, and video talks at assemblies from NS . Other things prob happen but I’m not told about it No other party gets a look in. I don’t know if it’s Labour/ Lib Dem/Torie laziness/ disinterest or something else but I wish school was a neutral environment, either with all parties represented or none.
German teachers are still at the school and no properly trained Scots teachers exist at the school that I know of so you tell me why the change is happening, perhaps more will be clear next week. Business department closed and computing and maths massively reduced is cuts, I don’t think languages.

@nolassie

Sorry but what you're implying isn't true. Scottish schools follow 1 plus 2 languages. We don't teach Scots as a language under one of these. We teach it from a literacy point of view, for example Scots poems/ exploring Rabbie Burns . For example, teaching languages you learn numbers in Spanish/German etc. Teachers will not be teaching numbers in Scots!! Hope this makes sense! Keen to know what school you are referring to.

education.gov.scot/improvement/learning-resources/A%201%20plus%202%20approach%20to%20modern%20languages

Some further info (if link works!) as think you've misunderstood mfl teaching versus study of 'Scots' literacy in Scottish schools. Hope this helps.

Yes and yes! Same again if given the opportunity 👏🏼