Second referendum part 2

[Gighasmokedhalibutisawesome]

Any appetite for a continuance or have I missed the new thread?
There was quite a heated squabble respectful exchange of views so I am sure there is more to be said......

Scotland didn't want brexit (hell, neither did almost half of rUK)

If you are going to say almost half of rUK didn't then there is a big chunk of Scotland that want to leave EU too.

The SNP are doing all they can to keep Scotland in the single market. Because of the agreement by respected economists etc that coming out of it will be an utter disaster.

What this point conveniently skips over is that their solution to leaving the EU market involves leaving a market that is worth over 4 times more to Scotland! These same respected economists say that leaving the UK would be even worse - it's nonsense to take their advice when it's politically expedient to do so, but ignore them when it becomes difficult.
I don't believe for a second that rUK would stop trading with an iScotland. England trades a lot with Scotland as well as vice versa. Although they are very good at cutting off their nose to spite their face...!

^I don't buy that we are simply a region of England, sorry.

Who said we were? We are part of the UK, just like England is part of the UK.^
We are a country in a political union. A country. Not a part of a country.
^
I don't trust Westminster to do anything good for Scotland, from looking at the past and equally what's happening now. Scotland didn't want brexit (hell, neither did almost half of rUK)

I find this incredibly ironic. The only reason Scotland has its head above water right now is that the UK is helping us out financially, as the crash in oil prices has decimated our tax returns. This isn't the first time, and it won't be the last. The Brexit excuse is unravelling by the day - are we applying for EU membership now? Or are we waiting a bit for people to make up their minds? EFTA maybe? (Perhaps we need to wait and see what the polls say will be most likely to deliver independence^
^^Scotland has paid literally billions in insurance in past years for this kind of help, through oil revenues. Forgive me for not being on my knees with gratitude. It's the least they could do (probably literally - what are WM doing for Scotland that they don't absolutely have to?)

Someone said TM must be a secret Yesser.
I think Nyx must be a fifth columnist. Everything she has posted, for me anyway, just highlights the absurdity of independence. Sorry Nyx, but all you are doing is convincing me ( not that I needed it) what a terrible idea it is.

I don't buy that we are simply a region of England, sorry

brilliant straw man point given that no one has ever said that.

Bloody hell... leaving the eu doesn't make the best economic sense and but could be persuaded for reasons of a political, representitive and democratic nature, but this is fecking suicide!

Nyx respected economists say that leaving the U.K. Would be a disaster for Scotland.

What are you prepared to listen to them only when it suits your agenda?

Just like a brexiteer.

The 'need to join the euro' myth is just a myth. Many countries in the EU have not adopted and have no wish to adopt it and they are not being told to.

What bollocks.

Folk keep saying independence would mean 'leaving' our trade with rUK.

If rUK companies and people currently buy Scottish exports will they really just cut their noses off to spite their faces and stop altogether, having to source the stuff elsewhere and pay import duties and have to pay for transport etc. For spite. To their own detriment.

So much for long history and close ties (which would still be relevant as neighbours and allies, maybe more so than now)

It would be daft in my probably not very smart opinion.

The actual figures in the Scottish elections show the 2 pro indy parties got 1,073,069 votes

Where are you getting your numbers from?

The SNP got over 2 million votes alone.

SNP + Greens = 2,177,082
Cons + Lab + LD = 2,095,530

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2016

But has already been pointed out, the election was not just about independence so it is pretty unreliable to use votes in this way. Especially as everyone gets 2 votes and may well have eg voted Lib Dems and Greens..

Actually we're now being told that independence could be better for Scotland if we had access to the single market: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1219f41c-4456-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

Believe even Blair says that now www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/17/nicola-sturgeon-says-tony-blair-right-say-brexit-strengthens/amp/

Great Gruffalo nice response

I think I'd believe the IFS over Tony Blair!!

If Scotland had been independent this year it would have required a bailout from the IMF, which would have meant austerity max.

"All sorts of people who really ought to know better keep repeating the myth that an independent Scotland will be forced to adopt the euro and all sorts of media outlets who really ought to know better allow them to propagate the myth without challenging them. I’m being kind here and calling it a myth. Another, and possibly more accurate, term for it is big fat deliberate bare-faced lie. Some of the people who repeat what we’re kindly calling the Euro-myth know fine well that it’s untrue.
The truth is that Scotland can’t be forced to adopt the euro and even if we did decide to adopt it, it would be several years before it became the Scottish currency. The likelihood of Scotland being forced to adopt the euro the morning after independence is even lower than the chance that Ruth Davidson will stand up in the Scottish Parliament and say, “Scottish independence isn’t such a bad idea after all. And you know, I don’t even like tanks.”
No country can be forced to adopt the Euro. Despite the fevered imaginations of the Brexiteers, the EU is not a fascist unitary state bent on imposing things on member countries against their will. Members of the EU sign up to the principle that a single currency for the entire EU is a good idea, because it is a good idea, but in practical terms the EU can neither force member states to adopt it nor punish them if they don’t. If an independent Scotland decides that it doesn’t wish to adopt the euro it won’t adopt the Euro.
Joining the euro involves a number of steps. First of all the member state needs to have its own currency, so first of all Scotland would have to establish a separate Scottish currency. Secondly the member state needs to sign up to the European Exchange Rate mechanism, ERMII, and be a member of this for at least two years. Crucially the timing and decision to do so is entirely up to the member state concerned. It’s up to a member state to decide when the time is right for it to sign up to the ERMII, and it’s entirely within the right of a member state to decide that the time is never right.
Other EU member states have effectively rejected joining the euro without a formal opt-out. Sweden hasn’t joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERMII) and it is vanishingly unlikely that it will do so as a referendum in the country rejected joining the euro.
The attitude of Sweden is that the time is not right for it to sign up to the ERMII, and the chances are that the time will never be right. The EU can’t force Sweden to join the euro and it has no desire to force it to do so either.
The Czech Republic is also highly reluctant to join the euro. A few years ago there was a discussion by the Czech government about whether to seek a formal opt-out along the lines of the euro opt-out that the UK has. However the then Czech prime minister Petr Ne?as stated that the Czech Republic didn’t need a formal opt-out as it already has an effective opt-out because it cannot be forced to sign up to ERMII. Opinion polls in the Czech Republic show very little support for joining the eurozone.
Most of the myths about the EU rest upon stereotypes beloved by the right-wing UK media and have no basis in reality. The Brexit- supporting press would have us believe that the EU blindly applies rules and regulations irrespective of circumstances, like a glorified version of a German tourist who puts their towel on the UK’s deckchair.
The EU doesn’t force member nations to do things that they don’t want to do. It’s the Westminster Parliament that forces member nations of the UK to do things that they don’t want to do. It’s forcing Scotland out of the EU against its will. It’s forcing Scotland to accept Trident even though our elected representatives are overwhelmingly against it.
So when supporters of the Westminster Parliament tell Scotland that the EU will impose things on us, let’s not forget who’s really doing the imposing.
Whether an independent Scotland ever adopts the euro will be a decision for the government of an independent Scotland: it won’t be imposed by Brussels."

Paul Cavanagh June 2016 (blog)

UK-Scottish trade is worth 6% of UK GDP and 78% of Scottish GDP

How is that calculated out of interest? I didn't realise the numbers was collated for each individual country in the union.

Nyx respected economists say that leaving the U.K. Would be a disaster for Scotland.

And other respected economists say that it wouldn't....

As I understand it, Scotland would still trade with rUK but it would be more expensive. There'd be less bang for our buck (or groat)

Oops, sorry. That was in reply to a post about an hour ago!

Not an hour ago. By Calyx at 12.57

( sorry, not contributing very well here - just being confusing)

The figures for Scottish trade with the U.K. include goods which leave via UK ports, not their final destination. Goods made in Glasgow destined for France, but leave the U.K. via Calais are counted as trade with the UK, so I am hesitant to vote based on those figures and any economic model they contribute to.

I feel like we were asked last time if we wanted a leg chopped off, now we are told the leg is going anyway, soz if that hurts, and would you like an arm chopped off as well? Not a happy vote!

ItsAll, please quote some IFS style sources from proper policy economists independent of party politics that say that abandoning the RUK tax payers funding of Scotland through the Barnett formula is a great idea for Scotland!

Tony Blair - we'd be in the euro and really crashed out of the EU by now if he'd not been overruled by Gordon Brown.

I haven't seen a single article saying Scotland is better off without the money it is getting from RUK through the barnett formula.

So Nyx you admit you know the poor suffer most with economic uncertainty, but you're happy to a) reject the RUK money from the barnett formula which is protecting Scotland b) happy with the SNP not exercising their existing tax raising powers to get more money for the poor right now and c) happy to add the macro-shock of independence to the macro-shock of Brexit, whilst throwing over the Barnett money.

What is the point of leaving the UK at the point where Scotland is heavily benefiting from the union because the transfers of tax £ are going the other way - to say its perverse is an understatement.

IFS your own Link shows the SNP got 1,059,897 votes in 2016 so i'm not sure where you get 2m.

As above

nyx if you understood the argument about the poor suffering -how can you support a vote for independence at this time?
Things could get hard enough with Brexit - which it doesn't seem that Scotland can avoid. Add independence with the current deficit/economic situation on top and whatever negative effects of Brexit will multiplied many times over...
Calling for a vote on independence now shows the SNP doesn't care about poor people - if they did they wouldn't even be thinking about it now. As I said they should be doing everything they can to cushion the Brexit blow - get us in the best possible position to weather the storm - not distracting themselves with indyref 2 - it really does prove as said multiple times on this thread - it is independence at all costs.
(And actually what have WM 'done to' harm Scotland? I hear that multiple times and am really not sure what people are talking about ...)

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1219f41c-4456-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

Not sure if my ft link posted before, am on phone

IFS your own Link shows the SNP got 1,059,897 votes in 2016 so i'm not sure where you get 2m

You need to add the constituency and regional (list) votes together to get the total number of votes.

Nolotterywin Barnett seems likely to be abolished post Brexit if Scotland's still in the UK.