Where are all my No-mates?

[HamletsSister]

In despair. Absolutely in despair. Do we have to go through this again? And with such a long lead up to the referendum? Really? What happened to the settled will of the Scottish people?

@statisticallychallenged Will you help me get through this again? (Was Roseformeplease then).

The Telegraph Article is straight out of last time round's vote Labour get SNP Tory campaign. It is aimed at the English voter primarily BUT it also helps the SNP, which I don't think they have properly thought through.

NS is pronouncing Scotland as a 2 horse Tory / SNP race. This is patently not the case in Glasgow and surrounding but every Labour voter who decides not to bother voting on that basis helps the SNP. In Statisticallychallenged's seat and elsewhere any Labour vote lending to the SNP to keep the Tories out also helps the SNP.

If we are talking about Edinburgh South West, I think it is almost impossible to vote tactically to oust the SNP. The Tory vote would have to double from what is a relatively high base of 20% and most of those votes would have to come from Labour voters (even if former LibDems defected from SNP which doesn't look likely on 2016 Holyrood or current polling). Labour could win back the seat if all the LibDems went back to voting LibDem and SNP turn out was down, but on current Labour polling this also looks unlikely.

I would vote Labour but I am a Labour voter this time so I would say that.

Close, edinburgh north and Leith - which has most of the city centre too

This is an interesting read borrowed from the WM thread in the EU board.

medium.com/@chrishanretty/warning-signs-for-labour-50b6cd1501d8

It covers SNP seats and sees the Con upswing, with a corresponding Labour and LibDem downswing.

For Edinburgh North and Leith the SNP won in 2015 because of mass defections from the LibDems to them. Reversing this would make it anyone but the SNP, but it doesn't seem likely.

I'm overall optimistic for the future of the union though - if labour can move back to the centre for the election after this, I feel the snp's future will be bleak at that point if we can keep independence off the table until then.

I'll vote Tory both because of Ruth Davidson and also because as I've waffled on it's the best way to get Corbyn out, I can't see any other way. I'm already a lab member poised to vote him out when I get a chance!

Otoh, if I were in one of the English Tory seats it'd be a lot harder a choice.

That is interesting howabout

Interesting how the UKIP vote is only rising in SNP held areas, I'd like to see where that vote is coming from.

At the minute I'm leaning towards voting Tory because that seems to be where the Unionist vote is amassing (from the recent polls and results of the last 12 months). Labour seem to be a spent force under Corbyn, who show variable levels of commitment to standing up to the SNP, so even though they were the runners up in my constituency last time, I doubt they will be again. If I vote Tory there's also the added bonus of increasing the Tory vote share even if they don't get the seat, which all helps to erode the independence argument.

I am swithering.

Interesting how the UKIP vote is only rising in SNP held areas, I'd like to see where that vote is coming from.

That is an interesting statistic. I wonder if it's because a lot of the current SNP strongholds used to be the poorer labour strongholds - the same kind of demographic as the stretches of Northern England that have seen a swing to UKIP from Labour. From my experience, that demographic is the most concerned about immigration, so could we be seeing a backlash against the SNP's proposals on rejoining Europe and free movement etc?

I think my seat is likely to stay snp but it'll be interesting to see where the labour vote goes this time as that could actually change things.

Last time it was, roughly
23k snp
18k labour
9k Tories
4.5 lib dems

2010 roughly
17k labour
16k lib dems
7k Tory
Everyone else below.

Labour actually didn't drop votes, it was more due to lib dems swing and I think a better turnout too, from the snp only. I think the sitting labour mp was fairly well regarded too so he didn't take that big a hammering. I don't see labour getting 18k this time round. Combined with the Ruth effect in central edin it could easily be Tories second I think - I suspect there's very different voting patterns for new town, Stockbridge etc vs Leith. They were like different worlds when I did indyref campaigning.

You've got to think the SNP must be looking st the sizeable % of the vote not going their way with any luck. They're being gifted these constituencies by the opposition vote split.

That's basically it, they're only winning them because the yes vote is concentrated in one party. Somehow that needs to happen on the no side

Edinburgh west could be interesting, a new snp candidate and already a slimmer majority. I'd expect to see lib dems out in force

Local elections will be a good indicator - if there's a massive surge for one union party in your area, that'll be a useful indicator

For me it is:

Last time
23.8k snp
13.3k labour
12k Tories
1.6k Green
1.4k lib dems

compared to 2010
19.5k labour
11.2k Tory
8k SNP
6.8k lib dem
0.7 green.

Definitely a split vote but I don't see the tory and labour vote joining together and lib dem is a wasted vote really. So we'll be SNP again likely as not unless the Tories or Labour don't put up a candidate but that would probably mean the votes still not being consolidated on one non SNP candidate. All we can hope for is the SNP vote share going down.

BBC seat by seat listing.

<a class="break-all" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39657532?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39681158&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39657532?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39681158&link_location=live-reporting-story

That's very interesting

Berwickshire looks shaky as heck- it only a needs a small shift which post brexit vote could easily go from UKIP to Tories and see them take that seat

Murray could easily lose edinburgh South if there's a swing from labour to Tory

East dunbartonshire could go back to ld

Edinburgh west looks like a shoogly peg and I think the libs picked it up in holyrood

Anyone know Dumfries well? It's got cons second but also quite a big labour vote which could shift.

I think that's probably what we will see happening, movement between the unionist parties rather than away from snp although there might be a drop in their turnout potentially.

I think the snp will lose out this time hopefully. There are many in the snp who are not particularly left wing. They may well have voted brexit too and temporarily drift to the tories. They may switch back after brexit has been completed, but the snp caravan mày be rolling back down the hill when they get back on board. We've had a tough time with the recession and necessary cuts... people turned to destructive nationalism out of desperation. Once things stabilise and brexit is looking like a success people's appetite for destructive nationalism will have subsided, but the only way we can curb that nationalism is by knocking the snp down a peg (seat) or two in the hope of salvaging Scotland's shrinking economy and reputation.

She could lose some votes from the pro brexit side actually that's a good point.

I reckon the Tory vote could go up in Scotland despite the stronger remain vote. Could be wrong but I think Ruth Davidson has been clever running the Tory campaigns as about opposing snp.

I wonder how many yes and leave voters are having a similar dilemma, but the opposite way round to me, I.e how to indicate support for both positions.

Will they assume Brexit will happen anyway and vote snp to try and make another indyref more likely?

Whatever it's going to be interesting.

I'll be happy with the SNP losing vote share even if they don't lose any seats.

I'm English and I'm so glad there appears to be lots of people who want to stay in the uk (or at least on mumsnet anyway) I'd be gutted if Scotland left the uk.

Cheers bumplovin I hope as ruth davidson says we have reached peak Nat. Keep your fingers crossed for us. We already voted to stay in UK in 2014 referendum.

Love the phrase "peak Nat". Think and very much hope that it's passed. But they won't just shuffle off quietly without a fight.

Support for independence has fallen to 40% according to a new poll. We may well have seen peak nat!

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-drop-in-support-for-scottish-independence-1-4428346

UpAwf I like your phrase "destructive nationalism" - sums up so much about how I feel about the SNP.

Interestingly, my fairly right wing (ex military) neighbour is now out canvassing for the LibDems - the only chance of knocking the SNP out in my constituency. I just hope that there will be a pro-liberal feeling as this is where the ex-City banker beat Kennedy, who subsequently died. He was very much loved and I know people felt that they had betrayed him personally round here.

Hopefully, the Libs will field a good local candidate who can tap into some of that feeling.

What happened to Kennedy was the saddest thing about the last election. I'd vote tactically for lib dem if Insee a huge surge over that of the tories in the locals in our area. Think more likely to go to the tories but we'll see.

"Nicola Sturgeon has claimed the forthcoming general election is not about independence as a new poll indicates that support for a Yes vote is weakening."

But everything she and the SNP does and says always feels like it is exclusively about independence. She'll have a hard time now to convince peolpe this election somehow isn't.
We must be constituency neighbours hamletssister