What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

Yes I can see it, it'll be like Naples in 1944, starving Londoners will break into the zoo to eat the animals, middle class women will sell their bodies for a packet of biscuits. We'll be reduced to begging in front of oligarchs' mansions.
On the other hand, probably nothing will happen.

With the cuts the conservatives have already indicated , I don't think they want to be reelected. It's showtime folks and they know it. An economy based on selling houses to one another, what could go wrong?

.Calling all buy to let fretters, Tories are to give away housing association to tenants that get work.They are coming for you lot next . It's all part of the election plan and you lot are next. You are the benefit scroungers and you dont fit into the new tory come socialist vote for my arse plan . therefor you lot have to be sacrificed .What a way to run a fucking country

Cough

cough and strucking cough

Well, it is true that this government (and the new one) is going to increase taxation and regulation of landlords.

Substandard and unsafe properties won't be tolerated by tenants, associations, councils or the government.

Amateur & accidental landlords, and slumlords, will all be outed. Tax dodgers they are coming for you.

London will not suffer (much) from increased taxation and regulation.

London will suffer as working-age and housing benefit are cut. Despite the claims, London has massive levels of benefits dependency (~30% of work age household receive benefits. I find it stunning that the state taxes someone working in Newcastle so someone from Bangladesh can live in one of the most expensive places in the world! And not work FFS!!!!

London will suffer as the public sector is cut. Again, despite claims on London hosting loads of of tax paying, private sector jobs, throw a brick in Trafalgar sq and, odds on, it'll hit someone who get all or the majority of their income from he state. This now includes the likes of he banks.

London's problems are like everywhere else in the UK. The only difference is London is off the scale leveraged.

A crash is sudden and unexpected, therefore you can't predict a crash.

You can though predict a slow down in the market

Meanwhile, mortgage rates are coming down and down, and there are talks of the base rate being cut even further. Did you see that coming Ron?

Oh Roneik, your punctuation is giving me a nosebleed.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting an further lowering of interest rates. They really are hitting rock bottom (extremely fortunately for us as we have a mortgage to pay off v quickly).

There's a difference between base rates and mortgage rates.

If we have deflation then banks will find it very expensive to borrow money.

If banks are forced to step up their recapitilisation then the cost of money will go much higher.

Look, BoE base rates are not a good sign for the housing market. They mean the economy is stuffed. Anyone taking out more high multipels of salary to pay for a house is going to be in big trouble.

Oh I agree hereandtherex. Our mortgage is barely one times salary. I don't believe in debt. Low interest rates will do me fine.

No signs of a crash happening here (SE).

I was at the prices when we were buying in 2010. Now I'm at the prices.

Only idiots cannot see, that when so big a proportion of the population in this country and parts of Europe are not able to be participants in the economy past survival you get deflation. If deflation gets a hold you will need more than 0.5% rate reduction, your jobs will be at risk as will the economy.
In a deflation scenario people hold back on purchases and jobs go, it's all happened before . I think the possibility of not only a crash in the housing market is on the cards but a real dip in the economy this year.Something big to go down to correct this lunacy soon , so don't get too cocky about this 0.5% rate cut . It's a sign of the whole economy not being in control of the chancellor. It's an outside force that will bring it all back to earth.We\are walking on thin ice, and anyone leveraged is in for a lifestyle shock very shortly

The Property crash will be obvious by July . It's running to schedule

There's a difference between base rates and mortgage rates

Not for people like us on tracker mortgages there isn't. Our mortgage rate tracks the base rate.

Sept October I think will be obvious and start to be reported in the press.

ivy katy A crash is when either by increments or sudden drops the price is much less than before. To those who suffer nosebleeds over commas and dots I say " when the crash and the after effects have settled you will probably need a complete 8 pint transfusion. In the meantime stop picking your nose it's disgusting and boggies are germ carriers. I suspect you may be eating them

I will post in time for a complete supermarket top up before the unrest

Cough

Well, it is mid-June now, could 'the seer' AKA Roneik have been right after all with his July prediction?!

(about bloody time as well!)

www.bbc.co.uk...siness-33086002

I own a terraced ex council house in the SE.

According to recent sale prices it's worth 30,000 more than in 2007 and £60,000 more than when the market crashed.

What slow down? What crash?

The crash? Would that be the 25% increase they were talking about this morning?!

Oh I miss ron and his voice of doom.

It's a shame Roneik was banned as this could have been an interesting/entertaining discussion come July.