What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

Surely Japan is a good example of what might happen here, as the government has said austerity will continue (for how much longer?) and arnt we seeing talented educated people leave this country to find better jobs? Fast forward in 10 years, could be similar

Also to add arnt the middle classes now having children in there mid 30s and having one child instead of two or more? Won't this have an effect eventually on the working population in 20 years time? Probably a raft of people who have simply left it to late to have children due to not being able to get a home, I would guess this will only get worse with continuing rises in housing costs

Beinghere Tis you that has not read all the detail. Japan as London had a huge property bubble. They have generational mortgages . Our bubble is at that point now , it would take several generations on average UK salary to buy most properties in London, southeast going the same.

I have tried to warn you, within the next few months and before July you will see .

Give it some thought. People cant live on air and don't all earn mega bucks. So many have been excluded from the ponzi scheme they cant fill the rows at the bottom of the pyramid.
That when all Ponzi schemes collapse
THE SEER

tobysmum77 You got it back to front, Property dropped vastly more than 0.2%. That was the only rise 0.2% in one part of Wales. You experts must at least keep up to speed or just read the posts. I despair that you can be so out of touch and commenting

Forget the exact figures my point is that it isn't a crash. or anything like one. It's December/ November, you have to look over a year.

There isn't going to be a crash, stabilisation would mean prices go slightly down some months, slightly up others.

Further proof of the SEERS ability predicting outcomes in the coming crash

I posted there would be bail ins and here is the link to what amounts to the bail in for UK Asset mortgage and savings , a one off tax for everyone.
Landlords being hunted by inland revenue and now another knock at the door. I am plucking glad my house in the north is worth not a lot .
It's quite likely this will be passed . Get your calculators out 10%

akashictimes.co.uk/brits-could-pay-10-tax-on-assets-under-new-proposal/

tobysmum77 Since May 2014 they have been going down in value.
If you call 30k slight 2 months in a row London

What a strucking fuggle getting through to those in the other dimension .
Good luck with that one

I would say the majority of people buy a house or flat because they want to make a home. Whether the properties marketable worth goes through the roof or crashes and burns it will mean nothing to most people as they either are not looking to sell it or if they do come to sell then it is a case of if prices have gone thru the roof then the next property they buy will equally be inflated in price. If the price has gone down then the next property will be equally cheaper.

When making a decision to buy a house most will look at transport to work, schools how close are the shops and what areas are in peoples budgets. Even those that like myself who buy, sell and rent out property would not buy a place just because it looked cheap. There is a reason why things are cheap.

As for the bottom rung being unaffordable for first time buyers I think you will find that the BTL market have stepped in to prop that rung up.

Not all BTL landlords are being hunted by the IR the majority pay their taxes and have well run businesses.

I wish there would be a crash. Then I would be able to afford a larger house but I don't think a crash is coming any time soon.

oh and £30000 adjustment in prices in London is nothing. It would mean the average house price was down about 5%. Given Londons prices went up over 15% last year then I don't think there are a lot of Londoners who will be worrying

Offering and accepting an offer 5% under asking is not at all unusual. Prices need to drop 30% plus for me to think about a serious crash.

Beinghere Hey hold on , the main reason the first time buyers are not there in the market place is because buy to let landlords can get interest only loans, and have driven up prices as the first time buyer cant. They also leverage their other property . Everyone is subsidizing you that has savings . Not only have landlords caused generations to be excluded from property ownership but have been one of the main reasons for the increase in prices of property. Not content with that ,you lot have driven rents through the roof compared to historic. Your day's are numbered though because as the renters become the majority they will have a lot of their issues sorted. That's because the government of the day will want their vote.

Apatite1 We are a third of the way there using your benchmark. It's gaining momentum , soon it will be well under way

Last year I "sold" a flat 3 times to first time buyers. The first guy pulled out after 6 weeks saying he thought he could afford better if he saved for a few more months, the second and third lot pulled out on the day they were supposed to exchange, one said she was too scared and the other brought her parents round and they told her to offer £50000 less on the day she was supposed to exchange as we obviously were desperate to sell. I sold it the following day to a BTLetter who completed within 4 weeks for £20000 more than I was going to get from any of the FTBs. Each of these people would have incurred solicitors fees and mortgage application fees running in to thousands. Whilst it is popular to think that FTBs are being priced out of the Market I think a lot of them are their own worse enemy.

This flat is not the only place I have tried to sell to a FTB. I have been messed around so many times that when I hear the estate agent tell me they are sending around a FTB to view a property my heart sinks.

I know every one has to start somewhere but I don't remember ever bidding on something I had no intention of buying or spending thousands on solicitors fees and mortgage fees and then pulling out on the day I was supposed to be exchanging and neither does anyone of my friends who have also had similar experiences to myself when trying to sell their own homes. Whilst some FTBs may be struggling to afford the deposit there are a fair few who just waste money then cry they cannot get on the housing ladder.

Hooray Beinghere some sense at last. We have a number of times been outbid on property to FTB, even though we are investors with finance in place (sellers who get emotional about "their" property being rented out). We can almost guarantee we will be called by the agent in 6-10 weeks time asking if we are still interested as FTB has basically shit their pants and pulled out.

The property we eventually did buy was one that came back on the market after 9 months, after the seller had got pissed off with the FTB not getting their act together.

We have no emotion attached to the property we want it because the figures make sense, there will always be another nice property just around the corner.

roneik no need to comment as I already know I am a "Buy to Fret" LL who will be living in a cardboard box by July, so save your breath.

To everyone else on here lets revisit this thread in July and see just what really has happened to the market !

I can't see house prices crashing massively or suddenly. There's too much of a housing shortage just about everywhere for that, surely? (I'm no expert, though!)

I would like to see prices fall a bit - and I'm speaking as a property owner, against my own interest. I just don't think it's fair to expect young people to take on so much of a financial burden, especially on top of graduate debt. It is awful for them and my heart goes out to them. Instead of thinking of it as 'my house is worth more', we should think of it as 'our children are priced out that bit more'.

We need more social housing, and more sensible, sustainable house-building.

I swear I'm coming back in July to see if THE SEER is right. Better be here roneik!

Havetowearheels your comment is verging on I'm alright jack screw everyone else, sadly this is all to common now. Hopefully the government will do something to slow to put off btl to the masses as it's doing no favours for the country as a whole. Large areas of city's /towns where people have bought a flat or house as a rental cash cow and let the home run into a state, and also destroyed the community in areas due to people just not careing anymore where they live as they move on. It's alright though because the amateur landlord can just flog the dump onto next landlord in a few years for a profit, great.... But if everyone is happy with that then wonderful

shabbycaddy you know nothing about how I run my BTL's so don't generalise. Our properties are bought as investments not as "cash cows" they are maintained to the highest standards (sometimes better than our own). Most of them are rented to families and some have been tenants for 10 years and the families are very much part of the communities. We buy family homes for this exact reason, we don't want transient tenants.
We live in a new build that is 7 years old, one house is on it's 4th owners so it is not always tenants that move on quickly. I agree there are LL's out there that are as you describe but don't tar us all with the same brush.

Shabby I think what Havetowearheels is trying to say is that FTBs a lot of the time bid on a property get their mortgage together, run up solicitors costs and pay mortgage arrangement fees, in my case 3 people paid just short of £2000 each in mortgage arrangement fees alone, not adding the surveyors costs and solicitors fees. Then at the last moment they pull out for spurious reasons. If someone who does BTL properly, (I am well aware that their are a fair few who do not) bids on a property they usually have everything in place and it is because their figures add up and go ahead with the sale as quickly as possible.

I don't think any amount of government legislation is going to make it easier for a lot of FTBs to get over their reluctance to make the leap into property ownership.

I would like to see the figures for the amount of money wasted by so called FTBs pulling out of buying their first home.

I have friends who have adult children who have moved back in with them in order for them to save for the deposit on their 1st home purchase. Now whilst I have a lot of sympathy that you now can not get 100% mortgages. It is the look of horror on their faces and rather sneering attitude when I tell them that I worked 3 different jobs going from office work to bar work and shelf stacking and did not go out for a year in order for me to afford to buy the tiniest flat in London you could imagine as my office work paid so little that even 4x my salary meant I still could not afford the cheapest property in the area by several thousands. And I was not alone in doing that. Virtually everyone I worked with did the same.

I see it in my own children and their friends. Eldest has a regular Saturday job but others look at the pay and decide they prefer to stay in bed.

WE will be back.
So far price drops predicted correct
Deflation predicted correct 0.5 from deflation UK
Bail ins to erase western debt in euro area / including UK going into EU law predicted correct
Oil workers to lose jobs predicted correct
Decline in supermarket food sales predicted correct (fucking poverty of masses) Not competition with Aldis as the ministry of plenty would have you think
Cadburys laying off large part of employee numbers today UK

I wont be back for a while, but here what to look forward to as well as above

Pensioners buy cars and sunshine holidays as well,stop press/ bucket full of Viagra and many found floating in sunny waters by coastguard as their willies erected were markers for the rescue services.

THE SEER

Havetowearheels wasn't saying that yourself is a bad landlord, I' m saying there is a marked increase of people buying btl as an extra income but not properly managing property and know what to expect which is trashing areas, obviously this isn't the case of all landlords. On another subject it's interesting to see what will happen with pensioners being able to withdraw private pensions out this year, do you think this will have much on an effect on the housing market? Got a horrible feeling that elderly people will be advised to invest their money in property...

I posted there would be bail ins

Yeah, you did. About a fortnight after I did. There will be bail ins. The banks have set the precedence with Cyprus. They know they can gamble and we'll be forced to bail them out and they'll still get their bonus. Kerching!

Switzerland has done a Clever Thing in allowing their Franc to float freely against the Euro, because Mario Draghi's plan of QE would have cost them billions. The point is many Polish people have mortgages in Swiss Francs so are instantly paying 15% more for whatever property they have a mortgage on. I wonder how many Poles have Swiss mortgages on British properties. Apparently Christine Lagarde is not amused. Tough shit, it's good to see a nation put one over on the IMF and by extension the major banks, because you can bet that if the Swiss had told the IMF the banks and investment houses would have lost nothing. Hahahahahahaha!

The problem with you roneik is that half of your assertions are not your own. You read others' posts then claim the idea as yours a couple of weeks down the line. Give credit where it's due then I'll show you some respect. After all, I've been predicting a crash since no bank bosses were held to account for their criminal actions, and that fining banks will change nothing. It will take the jailing of bank bosses before attitudes change and future crases could then be averted as bankers see loss of liberty as preferable to buying a Ferrari.

THE DOER

I think you will find that everyone will have seen it coming when it arrives. If you go back over the threads I have posted on the mention of bails ins has been consistent. I have never noticed you as a poster. Good for you if you can see whats coming down the line. I dare say there are many who feel the same. The more the merrier , I want to see sanity return.
I would like to see some bankers peering out of barred windows too. I would let you have one of my liquorice all sorts as a prize, but the dog and my friendly female neighbor have scoffed em all.I did manage the odd one by fighting off the dog , that's the Jack Russell by the way
I have surveyed my doddery old git friends, and none as in zilch intend buying buy to lets with their pension potties. .
THE SEER HAS SEEN AND SPOKEN YOU WILL OBEY

COUGH

Are we counting the days down till JULY?
In a poll on another unmentionable site JULY is joint leader with October

Another program last night featuring failed buy to let landlords getting out on TV

The ponzi scheme is creaking now, and all those that can get out are doing so

Will it be MAD MAX scenario or just destitution
Or will it be mass brawls for the last tin of beans in TEscos

I'd be worried if I'd bought in London in the last year or so. Yes prices will always be high in London for good properties but recent buyers are likely to end up in negative equity.

Increased taxation & regulation is coming the way of BTL'ers, the government want the last of your profit.

Combine this with post election cancelling of help to buy and other props, and a Global economic event that forces interest rates up, foreign investors fleeing.