What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

Stop droning on about Houseprice crash site. For goodness sake the "Is london crashing "thread has half a million hits, and the people over there in the main are intelligent articulate folk, they don't spend all day talking about Farrow and ball or how big their big twigs in their vases are

Reality just hasn't set in for sellers yet

THE SEER

As for having all their money "saved " there will be a few on here that will be wishing they had some saved when the crash comes next year

Reality just hasn't set in for sellers yet

THE SEER

I expect the market will fall back a bit as interest rates climb again in the next couple of years. Lots of people won't sell at lower prices because they are convinced their house is "worth" more, but people with big loans (or whoever repossesses the house) will be distress sellers.

The wont sellers will probably be flag waver chancres, trying for a free ride.

Reality just hasn't set in for sellers yet

THE SEER

Sadly, even if prices do come down as interest rates rise, people still won't be able to afford the house they want, because they won't be able to afford the repayments at higher rates.

The Russian mafioisi businessmen will have trouble buying more London palaces, because Putin's military adventures have led to the Rouble dropping more than 50% in the last year, and patriotic Russians are "encouraged" to bring their money home. Some of them sent their money on an extended foreign holiday in about March. If they are seen to buy more of London they may find themselves in jail or worse.

No the only problem with a crash is that "property has become the economy"
That will have serious consequences for us all when it crashes.
Those with the money will have their house , and contrary to what people think there are a lot of bunnies that have sold to rent waiting with their money to buy.

Reality just hasn't set in for sellers yet

I live in London and in my road of semi detached 3/4 bed houses, prices increased by over £100,00 in the last year.

However we have no intention of selling so a property crash won't be a problem for us.

'However we have no intention of selling so a property crash won't be a problem for us'.

^^ this

Unless forced to sell, most sellers will just re-trench as happened during the last downturn. I would have agreed with you in 2007 OP but I can see now that a 'crash' is just never going to happen.

Yes agree, our sellers only had to sell because he was being relocated to the US.

Buy a house get a free donkey scheme launched today by the government
It's a bog off offer next time, you wont get a free house just two bogs.
The thinking behind this move is that people that buy a house now will be shitting themselves and need the extra facility

Ron - there are websites and forums dedicated to this.
Most people here just want to talk about paint, tiles and kitchen fitting.
To be honest, so what if house prices 'crash' our household income has doubled since we bought the house. We don't need to move and our mortgage is fixed until 2019.
YAWN!

You've set up your own thread about this now? You know you're obsessed don't you, and also by F&B paint I'm not sure that naming yourself the SEER means you actually know what you're talking about.

Another SE here and no there won't be a crash, 3 bed semi's are currently achieving 100k more then last year. I rent so it massively depresses me, but i can't see it changing. infact one on my road achieved 150k over asking price just by people outbidding each other!!! As soon as the sale board is up the sold board is up within the same week

I would say prices definitely on the down by next winter. Higher end prices in London will be pushed down by the SD changes and the new help to buy announced yesterday will create competition at the lower end with ftb. I also work in property and it is pretty obvious and I am in the SE. I knw a few agents who are honest (not many) and 2 in particular who I saw at a xmas do last week said nothing selling and lots of buyers planning to reduce in the NY on their advice. It can't just crash straight away but slow falls and stagnation over a long period would be great

Noddy absolutely agree. I've given up hoping for a proper crash, but slow falls and stagnation would be wonderful.

but slow falls and stagnation would be wonderful.

Agreed but this only makes a difference if accompanied by inflation in other areas, including wages, to shrink debt and prices.

Is thirty grand a month drop enough?

''House prices fall by £30,000 in just four weeks in some parts of UK''

Torygraph headline earlier this week

Issy slow has been since May quick is now, 30k that's serious money for a one month decline in Property price

Even the Ministry of plenty acknowledge that.
They are giving out freebies

Extract from the guardian today in business section

The biggest discounts have been made by sellers in Mitcham, south London, where prices have been slashed by an average of 9.2%, or £55,606,

The 'bad news' is finally getting through to the mainstream press - this is from today's DM: Mortgage lending drops for fourth month as 9% fall in loans suggests cooling property market. There have been daily articles of this type for the past week

www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2878921/Sudden-fall-monthly-mortgage-lending-adds-evidence-slowdown-property-market.html

Since we're taking bets, I say the crash will be obvious in March 2015.

With most of Europe at near deflation, they are our biggest trading partner.North sea oil nearing the point of being financially a basket case. I think you might be right too. North sea and all the support equals 2% of employees in this country at risk of job losses.

Already some have had their wages cut by 10%

There was n article on Yahoo mail "four reasons the uk housing market may collapse next year

I don't know if the ministry of plenty had it taken down , but it shows from the link SERVER NOT FOUND

Re trench or not people have to sell property for more reasons than making money

Death
marriage break ups
job loss
Job relocation
emigration
family tragedy
elderly to pay for care
sell to raise cash for business venture
House becomes too large after children leave
Area deteriorate after buy to let tenant from hell move next door

I could go on but wont,

I can tell you if you rivet your bum to the front door it will drastically reduce in value during the coming months.

The sad thing is whether there is another an economic crisis doesn't really have anything to with the UK, falling oil prices, crisis in Russia with Putin pushing up interest rates to stem the flow of capital, problems in the Eurozone. These are more likely to trigger a house crash.

Last crisis was triggered by sub prime mortgages in the US, not Labour over spending..

We are all now so interconnected.

Forgot to mention , if we get six months of £30 grand drops THAT'S A GOOD START FOR A CRASH
only£180.000
Gosh that would mean the tooting one bed ex council flat would be worth in the region of £65 grand
SELL Sell [fgrin

Well I woulnt disagree , but remember job security is another aspect to alter peoples mind set. Confidence must come into the equation when taking a big step like buying a house, especially with the sums involved in Londonia