What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

Mitch Feierstein of Planet Ponzi is predicting a crash, not just here but more or less globally. Steve Kean, economics professor at Kingston University is predicting a crash because of the weight of personal debt. Other commentators moan that the rich and the banks can borrow at as near to zero percent as makes no difference (unless you borrow from the ECB, which is a negative percentage rate) whilst ordinary mortals have to pay many times that. The poorest sit behind the Wonga Apartheid Wall, only being ble to borrow from high interest legal loan sharks. Far too many people are paying for essentials either on credit cards or by taking out payday loans, and that is not sustainable long term.

We have to admit that neoliberalism in the form of trickle down economics does not work, and that globalisation has fucked over the working and middle classes.

It might end up being hay forks rope and lamp posts for some when this all implodes

woollyjumpers You have not been paying attention The government had to revise all growth figures downward by huge amount for quite a long time frame. So it is not booming and that wont have looked good to those investors outside and in the UK . It was a massive manipulation miscalculation of data twas only the other week it came to light, or was admitted

The BTL market is booming in the North, both with housing benefit, social housing and the the private rental market. We are already being inundated with enquiries from potential investors who are interested in using their pensions make a start in buy to let investments.

The average pension pot is £25000
The crash has already started , that will deter/stop many
As\each month passes as we get to the election most will realize it's
not going to be a good investment. House price inflation has come to a permanent end. Landlords rely on the property increasing in value.
We are entering new territory where property will not only crash but stay crashed, maybe for a decade. I can see great numbers of immigrants leave these shores as our economy is adjusted .

Buy o let properties on mass will be requisitioned as great numbers of landlords go under

Even if the property market crashed and burned this year how bad would it be. I very much doubt that house prices would go back to the 1960's, 70's 80's, 90's or early 2000 and within a few years they will have recovered and overtaken today's values.

If they did then I could afford a very large house in Central London, but then again so could a lot of others which would mean that prices would rise again.

Oh and Roneik the only landlords that rely on house prices increasing are those that don't understand BTL. Most landlords look at the rental income in terms of making a percentage on the money they have out laid.

I too look forward to moving from my average home in Dulwich to my Kensington mansion when this massive crash in prices occurs

I look forward far more to a whole generation being able to leave the parental home and buy their first house...

Sadly, neither will be happening!

RonnieTheRant - wrote Yeah like everything you have striven for becomes 40%/60% of it's former value " and you don't care" Good luck with that one

40% wouldn't put me in negative equity, and I'll still need somewhere to live. That would equate to a cash loss of less than £10k based on the deposit I put in. So I'll survive. If you think there's going to be anything more than a 10 - 15% adjustment on the national average within the next 10 years you're seriously deluded. There would have to be enough houses available to meet demand for that to happen.

adr - Give me a town where is booming please.

London - albeit it's a city.

London's not booming. Putting out feelers, it appears to be quite the opposite.

hereandtherex

The BTL market is extremely busy in Liverpool and Manchester, and in towns right across the N West. Lots of tenants for both private renting and housing benefit too.

CheeseBadger In a crash demand and price reverse roles. Think before you post such sound bites from the ministry of plenty.beinghereThe japanese thought that and 20 years later it was still going down

adr07 Are you reading from a script what you are posting

Only the frugal that are not carrying massive debt will be left standing, when this pans out, you cant be told. It's like watching Klodyke the gold rush.

London taking some real drops month on month now equivalent to a tears salary average UK

There was last month not one town or city in the uk that did not drop in prices. The only exception was part of wales Plus 0.02% Which is two tenths of one per cent

www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2015/jan/03/pension-freedom-is-expensive-mirage

HA ha ha! Told ya.

Reading from a script? Now that has made me laugh! No, not a script, just working every single day in the property business. Everything from buy to let, buy to sell, property development, etc, etc. so I do actually know what I'm talking about...!

Ronnie - that article has precisely zero relevance to the discussion. Are you OK? Genuinely?

There is a bit of a difference between a month on month change of 0.2% or 1% and a crash. There wont be a crash, the supply is too tightly controlled.

Perhaps we can have some stability. My neighbours' massively overpriced house hasn't shifted in a few months so that's promising.

Sad truth is hopefully some crash will happen, personally I think it will be a gradual halt in price rises. When you think about it, I guess it's in the governments interest to keep people in debt, thus making people stay in work for longer to pay debt so producing more revenue in taxes. I also think the whole government right to buy is linked to this as it offloaded properties which potentially had tenants in them on various discounts/benefits, if the council could shift them on then new tenants/owners will most likely be paying full rates, also if the btl gang get hold of them and do repayment mortgage the government tax the earnings, happy days;)

Certainly local authorities are desperate to get rid of social housing.
My mum has just bought hers (after living there since 1969) and has benefitted from the bigger discount as of august 1st last year.
I don't think councils will provide social housing for much Ionger...it will all be sold off to tenants or private housing associations.

I wondered when Japan was going to be brought up in the discussion.

As usual Roneik you have read the articles and not really understood the reality.

Japan is a country with what I would describe as a negative population. It has only a tiny amount of immigration and a population that is decreasing not increasing. It is a case of supply and demand. Where once Japan had more people than houses it is now a case of more housing than people.

Japan has also been suffering from austerity measures since 1992 and has a massive problem with homelessness. They are living proof that Gideonomics doesn't work.