What month will the property crash be obvious in?

[roneik]

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

cough

There is nothing that indicates this will not get worse
Where are all the HPI forever clowns hiding ?

THE SEER

With regard to people drawing down on their pensions and investing in BTL as Roneik you have pointed out you can get an awful lot for your money up north and property if carefully managed and even with void periods as with all BTL the return on your money is more than the pension companies are offering.

The reason property prices went up so dramatically in 2014 then have been coming down in the last part of the year is because everyone was trying to get their mortgage sorted before the new rulings came into place in late April. So mortgages sorted pre the new rulings would have been for houses completed in the most part by the end of July/August. Most purchases completed after that would have been subject to the new rules that mean you can now be quizzed on every purchase and cash withdrawal and credit card transaction I am not surprised that there has been an adjustment and fewer mortgages given.

No - the Northern BTL = better voids claim is pretty much a myth.

There's a lot more social housing in the North. Most people who want cheap housing can get it from the council/HAs.

There is very little demand for private rentals in a lot of places. I can go to RM 'To Let' pages and pick out out many rentals that have been empty for many months.

I didn't say that there are fewer void periods up north I meant that if you factor in void periods and do your homework and buy a good property then the returns outweigh what your pension gives you for the same outlay.

BTL landlords rent their properties to the council so although the tenant is renting from the council, the council have leased the property from a private landlord and guarantee the rent to the BTLetter for I think it is about 5 years. The local council also cover any void periods and damage to the property.

I would be very careful. The North has plenty of social housing. There is very little demand for private, social housing.

The LHA allowances are getting reduced year in, year out. If the expected cuts to tax credits and housing benefit emerge then you will be getting less and less money from less and less people.

Can you provide me a link to any Northern council (any north of Watford will do) that offers the private LL/tenancy scheme?

I think you will find they all do. There are rules on what properties are acceptable but as far as the tenant is concerned they rent from the council. The council take on homes offered to them by private landlords.

As a landlord you would not get less and less each year as the contract, usually for 5 years, is set up so you know exactly how much money each month the council is going to pay. It is usually slightly below what a private landlord would get renting to a private individual but all void periods are covered so it is a regular income and the property when the 5 years are up if the landlord does not want to renew the agreement is returned in a good state of repair.

www.norwich.gov.uk/Housing/PrivateSectorHousing/pages/PrivateSectorLeasingScheme-LetNorwichCityCouncil.aspx

That looks like an interesting scheme Beinghere, I had no idea that was possible.

I'm very happy with my IO mortgage, I don't particularly like the house, so will only be too happy to sell it on, hopefully we'll have enough equity to buy a houseboat or small flat. DP and I take care of most of the repairs, I can fill it with pets and don't have to worry about my autistic boy drawing all over the walls, kicking doors etc. It has saved us £s in rent and enabled us to sort out our finances.

Tne rents for a 2 bed house in parts of the north are only £90 a week
For one bed house or flat£ 70

In a town not so many miles away the council are to demolish 3 tower blocks of 3 bed flats. It's been brought on partly by the bedroom tax

That has left so many empty the place has gone to rack and ruin
So whilst you can buy a cheap house not gonna get rich renting out through the council
I personally know of some instances where people are moving back in with relatives , or taking one room. For anyone single I would imagine it's near impossible to run your own place on the benefit payments

I just cannot see a rush with dribs and drabs of pension release it being attractive to anyone retired. I am retired you want release from all the crap in life. There are only 2 brief periods in ones lifetime you are a free spirit . One is when you are a child the other is when you no longer are conditioned by work ruling your existence. If you draw anything over 25% You are paying the government to have your own money.

Rabbits outta hats help to buy and bury yourself young schemes, fiddling with all sorts of property taxes . None of these seem to be working now. In fact the desperation is to me becoming obvious now.

Anyone still has time to bail out by selling cheaper , the window closes soon

Ron, this is all very amusing, but you're the only person who expects a crash. Have a look at this. These people know what they're talking about, as shown by the first table.

And who cares either way? Most people live in their houses. They're not designed to be investment vehicles.

It's all very local anyway. I know of a suburb in south Manchester where prices haven't fallen once since the 1970s.

Not everyone in council housing is on benefits.

And as for the figures you quote for rents, depending on the cost of the house or flat which as you have said before are very cheap then those rents are very viable.

I rented a 1 bed flat out for £45 per week and still made a profit. Just because rents are cheap does not mean there is not money to be made.

I very much doubt that there is going to be a property crash this year and even if there was prices never really drop so much that you can buy homes at what they were 10 years before unless something major has happened.

Friend bought small house out in the countryside of Hertfordshire, it now over looks the M25

Oh you have to be kidding (THE BBC) State propaganda or lose the ability to extract license fee. The experts throughout the real crash 25 odd years ago were spouting all that tripe and still it fell . Earlier in the thread I named a so call expert who predicted rises in London OCT NOV DEC, hey guess what he was wrong and I was right. I am sick of regurgitating the detail. Read the thread from the beginning. Still even at Christmas the supermarkets and ms sales down. I think people are putty in the hands of governments corporations and banks. You are in for a rude awakening most of them have a vested interest. I tell it as I see it. I know I am right and don't rely on experts. There are no experts, even the bank of England experts did not see the crash they have said so. A load of mumbled excuses , and they get their expert salary .

2 decades and more ago in that crash, houses were 60% less and more in some areas. and wages more or less kept up and surpassed cost of living for a good part . You are having a laugh, or you have never seen a real crash. Don,t worry you very soon will see how one works. When you make comments about experts for support I know it has to be contrived tripe

Harwich Essex I paid 29k for a three bed semi that was 102k form the Halifax who had repossessed. I live in it for a while but the Journey into dagenham using the A12 was a nightmare . It later recovered (some years) in price. There was a freehold nearly new flat with shop underneath 16k
Seen it worn the t shirt

Speaking to friends in my age group and down to 55yrs, I have yet to have one tell me they are to sell their pension to buy a property to let. They know it's gonna end badly both that idea, and the economy being being held to ransom by the implications of a property crash being such a threat to the economy.

Those friends mostly have Ford final salary pensions. One of the best pensions being paid by employers

The only lets thriving in a lot of the north are big HMOs

Ronnie - I have read the thread from the start. I've been laughing at it for several days.

1. I live in an area where prices haven't fallen since at least 1972.

2. I don't care if there is a crash because I can afford my mortgage and I need somewhere to live.

Did you mean to sound so rude?

There is no area that has not fallen since 1972 Back it up with something.
No when I am right and others come on with nonsense I tell how I feel. It's like politics leads to friction. Where are you buck house?

The average maturing pension policy has a fund value of £25,000 (pension policy inst) Fill yer boots
Hey I like a laugh and never a day goes by that I don't make somebody either smile or laugh. If you would only look at the bigger picture you would be banging a different drum. I am and have been named the seer . I have some ability and sometimes it scares me

My first house in the north west cost me £9000 similar are going for over £200000 and my first place down south which I bought for £17000 is around £450000.

I think it will be a very long time coming a crash so dramatic you get a 3 bed semi for under £10000 in the area I bought in. This house as with the subsequent flat I bought were both close to great transport links so people could get into the city centre for work easily, they both had shops and a good pub within walking distance.

Being in Lincolnshire Roneik you will not have seen the headlines in the Evening Standard recently that Londons population currently 8.4 million is set to rise to 10million within 10 years. All those people will have to live somewhere.

Yeah like everything you have striven for becomes 40%/60% of it's former value " and you don't care" Good luck with that one

NEXT PATIENT PLEASE[GRIN]

BeinghereOf course you would need to factor in the time frame between those moves and depreciation of value of money

I can remember a article in the daily in 1968 "ford workers now earn more than a doctor ( was about 30 odd quid a week) £30 odd would be in today's money maybe £450/550pw

You could buy a ford cortina for £1100 with all the bells in 1968
Rewind to 2015 and a fiesta will probably be £15000 with bells and whistles

Next plucking patient please