@Sprayitall
Have a read of this. The death rate is high because they don't know the true extent of infections.
If you open it in google chrome it will translate. Otherwise, I'll copy and paste the translation I read.
www.globalist.it/science/2020/03/22/crisanti-epidemia-di-coronavirus-in-italia-numeri-inesatti-male-contenimento-e-monitoraggio-di-positivi-2054890.html
Today also the deputy minister for health says that more tampons must be made. What is, according to your study, the importance of doing a carpet screaning?
Don't tell me "carpet screaning", this term is used by anyone who wants to demean implementation or scientific rationale in some way. We don't do carpet screaning.
It is an important clarification. So what is your strategy instead?
Our strategy is the one used in all epidemics which is the classic one of active surveillance. Point. Which has never been done before. Containment was hurt and surveillance was bad. Containment is bad because it doesn't make sense to keep all the people at home and the factories open. Only now has a small step been taken in this direction. Madness.
Why is this surveillance so crucial?
This all starts from the Vo study because we showed that at the time of the first infection we found that 3% of the population was positive. Which is an enormity. A large portion of these people were asymptomatic. Not only. In the second screaning we showed that people who lived with asymptomatic positive people got infected in turn. So asymptomatics pass on the virus, there is no doubt. It is clear that one of the challenges we have right now is finding asymptomatic as well as worrying and treating symptomatics. So we want to strengthen surveillance on the ground. And do what hasn't been done so far. Active surveillance on the territory which means that if a person calls and says I'm sick, instead of leaving her alone at home without assistance without anything, we with the mobile unit of the red cross will go there, we will collect the person, we will swab the family members, we will swab friends and neighbors, because it is around there that the bearer is healthy, it is around there that there are other infected. Point.
So from a potential heart, enlarge ..
Exactly, with concentric beams, tampons are made gradually to the family that is the smallest neighborhood, to friends that is a slightly larger circle and then to the neighborhood that is even larger. So surveillance is done.
You have been advocating the need to extend the mapping for a long time, but the institutions, except in Veneto, seem not to listen to it, why do you think it is?
I fear that in Italy epidemiological culture is lacking to face epidemics. Unfortunately, people who have allowed entire countries to come out of malaria, typhoid and cholera are no longer among us. Otherwise this epidemic would have had another story.
Some say that the symptomatic ones are less contagious than the symptomatic ones.
Nobody did any experiments so they can't say absolutely anything about it. The only real experiment is that of Vo where we have families with only asymptomatic, they were uninfected people who became infected afterwards.
One objection is that the first swab is negative even if people are positive.
No, the probability is very low.
Another position that lines up against making a mapping is that of those who argue that it is of no use because you could find a negative person who is infected later on.
This is partially true but is used in an instrumental way. If at a certain point I map the surroundings of a positive person, I identify all the other people who are positive and put them all in quarantine, I decrease the probability that they pass on to other people. It is obvious that I will test these people after 7/8 days. Which is exactly what we did in Vo. There are no more cases in Vo.
Actually there seems to be a new case in Vo now.
No, it is not a new case, it is monitored, it is the relative of someone who was sick, we know perfectly well. It is monitored. That is, the new case of vo is a relative of a positive case and is under control.
Speaking of control, there is a lot of talk about Lombardy but also in other regions critical issues are emerging, such as in the Marche region. What is not working in the containment of the epidemic.
Look, epidemiological knowledge was lacking, support in the area of Public Health was completely lacking. It was non-existent. Lombardy numbers are all wrong. The truth lies in the numbers. If you take the tables yesterday March 21 in Veneto. He takes the number of the deceased who are 146 and divides it by the total number of infected 4617. He will see that mortality is around 3% as in China or in other countries, on average. If instead you take the total of the positives in Lombardy that were 25,515 yesterday and divide it by the number of the deceased, 3095 will have a percentage of 12%, the accounts do not return! How is it possible that in Veneto there is 3% of mortality while in Lombardy 12%. What is missing in Lombardy? The number of home cases is missing. This distance gives the idea of the collapse of the SS Lombardo locally. It is not that in Lombardy more people die, the fact is that the number of infected people is much greater but they are not detected. If we keep the 3% mortality as a reference point we can realistically, not only hypothesize but say that in Lombardy there are about 100,000 not about 25,000 cases, this is the reality. These numbers do not give the idea of the disaster we are experiencing.
The health system is said to be collapsing but has it actually already collapsed?
The ability of the Healthcare System to intervene has collapsed. How does a Healthcare System cope with this tide if cases in the area have not been identified? Didn't they do traceability, didn't they do prevention? No epidemic is controlled with hospitals, none.
It is late now, but what could be done to stem the disaster?
Now what can be done is that all of Lombardy has been standing still for three weeks. But firm means firm, that nobody moves. And at the same time, the identification of new cases begins, because very little can be done for old ones.
So the zero point to start lives has to start today for tomorrow?
Unfortunately, nothing can be done about the past because these numbers are unfortunately false. The total in Italy if we look at the number of the deceased we can estimate that there are already 130/150,000 cases. About 100,000 cases are missing at the appeal. The truth that nobody wants to say is that we have 4 times more cases than China.
Why was there no initial containment?
There was no initial containment and we have 100,000 cases that have not been diagnosed. One fundamental thing was not understood: the real number of infected people.
Veneto proves it. How is it possible that in Veneto we have 3% mortality and in the rest of Italy we have a much higher mortality because there are no cases. Because it's not that the virus that affects Veneto is less bad than the one that affects Lombardy. The virus is the same. Except that in Veneto the basic local health system has held. They have at least managed to make traceability.
This is because there has been real capillary intervention?
Yes, we have buffered all the neighboring circles of symptomatics by alerting the local ULSS and they have activated themselves. Now we will proceed again.
Is this the line you are carrying on?
Yes, the battle is won on the territory not on hospitals. In Veneto 53,000 swabs were made for 4000 cases. One swab every 10 cases. In Lombardy where it is not true that there are 25,000 but many more cases, one swab was made for every 4 patients. There is a 40-fold difference. They have been overwhelmed.
How do you see the situation in other regions?
I think the blockages where the outbreaks were occurring, all had to be tested to stop the epidemic. We have been saying this for 3 weeks. Small cases like Vo could have been dealt with all over Italy. All the outbreaks could have gone out.
Another element that remains unknown at this moment is whether you can get back on track, do you have any data in this sense?
This is not known.
As for the average incubation, do you have more reliable data?
The average incubation is 5-8 days, 14 is given as the maximum limit.
Could this bode well for the southern regions that after this partial blockade are not showing an escalation of cases?
Sure. If the southern regions act promptly in containment they can avoid the tragedy of Lombardy.
The question therefore remains whether to identify outbreaks in outbreaks.
For example, are there 10 cases in a neighborhood in Rome? You block everything, you make nobody move and you start testing in and around the outbreaks.
Look, epidemics are controlled with quarantine and active surveillance. We have so far almost everywhere, we have not done either.
Are there outbreaks in Veneto that you are monitoring?
Sure. We turned off the Vo one, the others are unfortunately still in the active phase but even today at 12 o'clock the Veneto is the region that unless the previous day.
If it is so useful to make temponi not only for symptoms, why do you think there is so much resistance to do them?
I'm afraid it's an ideological question. Since they made a mistake earlier, they want to continue supporting a line. They don't want to admit the mistake. That's all.
Costs and feasibility have nothing to do?
No, not. A tampon costs 30 euros.
Why did the Veneto Region move its line?
Because we operate in Padua and they consulted us. But the data were there for all to see, Vo's data was published on February 28, it was enough to see them, to want to see them.