I’ve been feeling upset angry this morning. But after pondering the numbers and what if anything I might do this protest song came into my mind and the video really says what I am feeling. Perhaps it time, again, to be Singing for our Lives
The numbers I was pondering are these:
Boris Johnson says there are probably 10,000 people infected. Chris Whitty saying he thinks the case fatality rate is 1% meaning there are 90 people infected now (1) who will die in the next three weeks (2).
I want to ask why they think it is reasonable for people who have a higher risk of death of they catch this disease to continue to work, travel shop and and generally interact with a population where 1 in 6,600 (3) - that’s approximately 1,477 people in London, 160 in Glasgow or 17 in Uxbridge and Ruislip (4) - are already infected.
32 thousand people in Uxbridge and Ruislip are over 50 and at this higher risk. 5 of them are probably infected and one, perhaps not even showing any symptoms yet, may die in the next three weeks. If that was you how would you want to spend your remaining time?
(1) 1% of 10,000 is 100, 10 have already died
(2) from infection to recovery or infection to death was calculated at approximately 3 weeks in the early stages of the pandemic.
(3) 66,000,000 divided by 10,000 is 1 in 6,600
(4) Populations of London, Glasgow and constituency of Uxbridge and Ruislip divided by 6,600
(5) Around 150 people were at a conference in fishmonger’s Hall last November. One of then was a terrorist who started to attack those present. He ran outside and police, paramedics and members of the public became involved, perhaps another 50 people. 1 terrorist, 2 people dead, 2 seriously injured, 2 less seriously injured. Everyone else shocked and many traumatised. 1% dead, 2% injured, the vast majority with no visible sign of being in any way affected in the long term.