From @natopmt reddit link above:
www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgfspi/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_hcid/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
level 1
1 hour ago
Are we likely to see an Italy style outbreak in UK or is it relatively confined?
level 2
dr_hcid
UK Critical Care Physician
1 hour ago
The consensus amongst my colleagues in general is yes, it will get much worse, and it is likely to reach Italy levels. We are preparing for such but there is only so much we can do from within a hospital.
As a health system, the UK runs at or over capacity. It is worth remembering that the background population of critically ill does not decrease in an outbreak.
There was a feeling a week or two ago, when we started seeing community clusters, that population measures needed to be taken. The feedback we have gotten from colleagues in public health or those involved in government advisory positions has been that there is a question of balancing short term economic burden against a predicted mortality.
I personally think this government response has been short-sighted.
We have very good case-studies, in Italy, showing what is likely to happen if delaying measures are not taken early; vis-a-vis South Korea showing what can happen when strict measures are taken in a timely fashion. The key is to prevent healthcare demand from being overwhelmed. This is the point where mortality rises.
Again, my personal opinion, is there is a problem in the UK amongst decision makers with denial, and concern about the political optics of early population measures that affect the economy. The problem is, with outbreaks like this, you won't see that you are about to be overwhelmed until the day before, and you needed to have taken action at least two weeks before that. Lessons from China, from South Korea, and current lessons from Italy and Iran are not being listened to.
level 3
58 minutes ago
What can we or should we do to revert such trend? Is it too late?
level 4
dr_hcid
UK Critical Care Physician
37 minutes ago
Institute some form of quarantine or population measures as soon as possible.
Close schools and fund childcare for medical personnel.
Make people work from home.
Prevent mass gatherings (e.g. football, concerts).
Discourage all but essential transport.
We can't stop it, but we can delay it. And delaying gives breathing room for healthcare resources.