Prepping For A Pandemic ....9

[ItsNotJustTheFuckingFlu]

wheresmojo asked at the end of thread eight if other posters could keep an eye on threads filling up and start new ones if possible as she’s busy this week and may not have the time, saw thread 8 getting full so thought would start number 9 before going to bed. Thank you to ofwarren for the live updates too. I’ve copied and pasted the info that wheresmymojo has included in every thread, hopefully formatting doesn’t mess up.

Anxiety

As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar thanks

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

Other Thoughts

India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.

Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)

If you bulk buy hand gel with a high alcohol content make sure it is stored somewhere safe other than the one you’re using. It is flammable!

They need to act on people profiteering from hand sanitizer for a start.

It sounds daft but it has to be done or what is the next item only available at ridiculous prices. Yep it needs handling early. Its predictable and just leaves a sense of what's next.

I hope Nicola Sturgeon steps up. She seems to have a lot more about her than Johnson.

Either they close the schools or they don't there is no inbetween.

Iran reports 835 new cases and 11 new deaths; total of 2,336 cases and 77 deaths t.co/eUoE2b20hL

If I catch the virus and recover well, I will volunteer. If I recover well get there is a chance if reinfection, I’d want to be in proper health before risking it but I would be prepared to do that

The problem with the volunteer idea is that most of the people who are either unemployed or part time and so would be available are either:

• SAHP looking after children and you can't exactly take your kids in with you unless they provide a creche

• Retired and so most at risk

• Unable to work due to health issues

• Long term unemployed, some (many?) of which wouldn't be suitable for caring responsibilities (although good opportunity for work experience if they are suitable).

Gorky absolutely not, all children are precious.

Could there not be an argument for the less children in school, the less they can spread it though? So I am in the position where DS can stay at home as DP is self employed and I work part time. If he’s at home, he can’t potentially spread a virus to your DC? Absolutely not trying to be goady, but wouldn’t it be a good thing if class sizes dropped dramatically for those families that can’t take them out?

Absolutely not a smug post from me btw - I don’t earn enough to pay tax and I genuinely live weekly wage to weekly wage.

@GorkyMcPorky
No ones children trumps each others, but if they are going to raise class sizes to God knows what then it makes sense that the people that can have there children home should do.

The government will be following the advice of scientists and civil servants who have already got pandemic plans to draw from.

Balancing containment measures with managing economic impact is important too. Ignoring that and leaving the economy to tank is also a risk to people’s well-being.

There is a plan for the worst case scenario but that doesn’t mean it will happen.

This thread has been a great source of rational, doable tips and advice thank you to everyone who has contributed these.

Absolutely @Alohamolly. I think if you can home school and you want to then you should be allowed to without penalty for this term. It helps those chn who have to come to school y reducing numbers.

I am genuinely disgusted with the comment about British altruism. Fuck the government and essentially them passing the buck to us.

In a U.K. where minority groups have been consistently sidelined and oppressed and ignored and put at risk, they have destroyed any greater good altruism. People will look after their own and that is fine, but they are literally pushing the country towards civil unrest.

Under a capitalist model a tanking economy would put people at risk

I really hope this triggers a shift in seeing economic policy for what it is. Perpetual growth is not a sustainable model

And putting lives at risk to sustain growth is not an ethical model

YES @AlohaMolly!!!

@AlohaMolly exactly. It's about reducing the numbers and the infections not saying well your kid is less valued because you can't stop work. And just because some work from home doesn't mean they'd be better off financially etc. Let's face it if you are home educating you're not earning.

@wheresmymojo exactly!!

@GorkyMcPorky no child does and bigger class sizes sound very counter productive in more ways than one

remember there was a case of re-infection in Japan

People can't even give up a flight or a football match.

Or shaking hands! What the actual, Matt Hancock.

I'm not a prepper really, but prepper wave to all.✋

Totally agree with @Lumene

I despise the government but I also know (ok second hand) that the amount of work being done behind the scenes is massive and wide-ranging, by people who are not government ministers (ie c**ts) and who frankly are not getting paid for it (by the by I know).

Right now it is not judged to be a sensible idea to shut the country down. If (or when) things change, that policy will change.

NatoPMT.
About the economic model being preeminent, yes.

@ofwarren wtf! I would be furious if a delivery driver just walked into my house.

I truly doubt that statement is the true extent of the planning, that's just ratchet want the public to know.
The alarming part about the police 'they will somewhat they have to do ' sounded rather unlawful tbh.

The rest sounded like subtle 'war time mentality' in order to cover the gaps in nursing and health and policing created by the government. Ludicrous when it's a completely different situation with close contact with others is dangerous.

I do intend to help others if I can like keeping an eye on neoghbours, maybe setting up neighbourhood WhatsApp group.

For people working in retail/on checkouts... I’ve just been chatting to my friend who is a manager of one of the big chain supermarkets. She says she orders hand gels in for all checkouts as routine anyway because it’s an audit fail if it isn’t there. Maybe you could drop that into conversation with your managers and see if it results in the appearance of it!!

I'm really hoping that this is a massive fucking wake-up call to the nation that we need the NHS intact, not bare-bones staffed, run-down, run by Virgin, sold off piecemeal to US conglomerates etc etc.

Yes they definitely need to tell shops to limit certain sales to a set number per customer like baby milk, hand gel, nappies etc.

People wont panic buy? They have never been to Tesco after snow is announced then.

I'm going to work on my toilet roll bunker. I bet there is a phase of panic buying until everyone in the UK has reached peak baked bean capacity. Then it will go back to normal in two weeks when every remembers only students eat baken beans at every meal.. ....

Yes nibdenibble, a lot is going on. but They can't even follow widespread expert advice to STOP shaking hands.

Ok we may not have sufficient numbers to render it a majorlyuseful measure today. But we should be practising behaviours for what they are already telling us is inevitable!

A lot of shops in my area have hand sanitizer on the counter for customers to use.
The amount of people on my fb saying dont bother with hand sanitizer because it wont kill the virus.

Dont worry, Boris will re populate the UK with his tribe of mini Boris's

@FelicityFebruary I know, I didn't really understand the nod to carry on shaking hands - it seems like such a simple thing to ask people to stop that physical contact. And it would be reassuring even if it turns out it's not effective. (Though I am at a loss as to why it wouldn't be!)

I've thought about what I can do to help. I will volunteer in person but only if I've had the virus and my family have had it. I'll happily do some online volunteering if it fits around work and it's something that seems like a useful thing to do.

I'll do this despite our government. This looks like it may turn really serious and it would do so no matter who is in charge of us. If we can make a difference which will help the most vulnerable in society, then surely we should try (while muttering FU Johnson and the rest of your rotten cabinet)