5th thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.
Anxiety
As Preppers we tend to look at a reasonable worst case scenario to plan for. Everyone is welcome on the thread but if you find it makes you anxious be kind to yourself and think about sticking to once daily updates from the BBC or similar 
General COVID Info
The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.
Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.
The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.
Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).
Spread of COVID
It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.
It can be spread with no symptoms.
It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).
Updates
As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.
I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Prepping Scenarios
Most of us are prepping for the following situations:
- Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak / schools being closed
- Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness
- Having to take a family member to hospital for COVID or any other reason during an outbreak
Prepping Items
Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario as do the Brexit prepping threads.
Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:
- Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.
- Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content
- Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do
- Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home
- Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus
- Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)
- For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing
- Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free
Other Thoughts
India have announced that they are stopping exports of some antibiotics, hormone treatments and vitamin supplements as they rely on China for raw materials.
Many factories that supplied fibre for use in sanitary towels and tampons are being diverted to manufacture face masks. Consider stocking up or changing to sustainable items (cloth STs, mooncup, period pants)