Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Also for anybody needing healthcare appointments, ask them to clean the equipment before they use it on you. I once in the midst of SARS asked if the blood pressure cuff had been cleaned since the other patients before going on me. He said no so I asked politely if he would clean it and he looked at me like I was batshit. Same for the oxygen probes.

Is there any more news on the cruise ship?

Yes, might be worth a try. She can walk though and her tolerance of the buggy is reducing!

Hmm just had an announcement that 'the 3rd carriage on this service was locked. This was due to health and safety reasons' wtf does that mean??

I've had that loads on trains before, I doubt it's anything sinister.

@wellididntseethatcoming absolutely. My kids primary school continued with sports day in 30 degree heat with no shade.

I do not trust them at all. Until they are forcibly closed in an endemic situation they will expect all kids attending.

Going back to school attendance...just read in local rag a teacher at a near-ish primary in Brighton has been told to self isolate. They're reporting kids have been given the option to stay at home or come in. If they don't come in it's marked down as authorised absence. That's slightly reassuring but I'm watching with interest for the next 3 days before the dcs break up

@Burpeesshmurpees it usually means that one of the door closing mechanisms is broken, happens quite often.

Or someone drunk has vomited in there, or similar.

Thanks for all these threads, I'm finding them very useful. Especially whoever mentioned LDS preparedness, I went into a bit of a preparedness-wormhole and I've come out the other side with some lists and a determined mindset!
I'm on a fairly limited budget and used up most of my Brexit stash as we were moving house and I didn't want to pack it all up. Now I've read more, I'm not sure whether to prioritise my house stash or my 72 hour go-bag -wwyd?

Also, re hand sanitiser (and I have 3 DC who are nail biters and prone to threadworms so I am worried about this) when do you use it? Currently I put it on after every toilet visit when out and about, should it be after every involvement with the public? Eg every bus ride, cafe drink, museum visit etc

At the moment I would be using hand sanitiser after I'd touched anything with my bare hands when out and about - handles, key pads, surfaces etc. But you obviously can't do it constantly so after say a supermarket trip then I'd do it before getting back into the car, trying to be conscious in between not to touch my face.

I think it’s important to have both a go-bag (in case you get whipped away for quarantine) and home prep (in case you get quarantined at home at immediate notice)

Also, welcome to the preppers forum to all the newbies!

I have to admit I've been on the prepping board since day 1 and I don't have an OFRS (Oh Fuck Rucksack).

But I have everything in the house I'd need to grab and make one quickly.

The likelihood of you needing one is lower than the likelihood that you might be housebound for a bit so I would focus on that.

Cripes have just had a Google and all Screwfix & B&q stores near me (in London) are sold out of P3 & P2 masks.

They’ve named the chap responsible for infecting 11 people- news.sky.com/story/identity-of-man-linked-to-11-british-coronavirus-cases-revealed-11931336
Presumably so that other people who may have come into contact with him come forward.

I'm a mini prepper, husband getting on board slowly. My Brexit stash is now my coronavirus stash. Lots more medicine added, but need more tinned 🍅 etc. I have a teeny freezer which is so annoying. I think I read I can freeze cheese so I will squeeze some in, frozen veggies too. I have chicken and Quorn mince etc enough for about 8 meals. I have enough tins for about two veggie dinners. Looks so much but sounds so little. I have some corned beef to make stovies but of course need potatoes....I think therefore I have meals for about two weeks. Then we'd be on to plain pasta and tomato sauce. I have soup too. I also have a few tins of beans. Two sons make prepping very hard!!!

Oliphant- you can get that instant packet mash if that helps re potato(sorry, not sure what stovies are!). Not tried it, some report it's ok but others say v salty. I'm Irish so it would have to be truly Armageddon for me to eat dried potato!

The UK super-spreader has fully recovered and been named.

A school teacher has self isolated due to contact with him and the school have left parents to decide if they want to keep the children off

www.google.com/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/10937508/bevendean-primary-school-brighton-teacher-coronavirus/amp/

I hadn't even thought about a go bag.

I'm preparing an online shop but just can't afford to buy things I won't use, and I never eat tinned goods. I think I'll have to stock up my freezer and hope the electricity stays on.

I do think PHE are doing a good job of tracing contacts - hopefully the Brighton outbreak can be contained this way.

The 'super spreader' seems to be so at least in part because he was a pretty busy guy - in a couple of weeks he went to a conference in Singapore, skiing in France and he does yoga, runs, is a Scout Leader, etc.

I'd like whatever energy pills he takes

@notstrongandstable. Yes! I was thinking that- but I'm Scottish and a close second to the Irish in my love of a real tattie! However I think there is one brand which is maybe ok so I think I'll investigate.... ( Stovies is mash and meat cooked with onions, very nice!)

I never eat tinned goods.

Could you eat the following though, even if you don't generally

tinned tomatoes
ratatouille
beans
sweetcorn
potatoes
soups

all come in tins

Soup, sweetcorn and beans maybe, I'd never eat the rest. Tbh I can't afford to spend more than 20 on an emergency shop, that's for one person though (until the uni hols)... but online shopping has to be over 40 ... and it adds up really quickly!

Oliphantitus -

A sack of potatoes in cool place? Tinned potatoes might be ok.

I have a fridge freezer but not a large one. Tinned sweetcorn is something I have to add a few carbs / calories to meals for teens.

Basically the poor superspreader is full of beans whatever he's got! I do feel sorry for him.

And take your vitamins.

A shopping trolley and rucksack. I like your style @preponderings .

People are told to get on with it, it is only a cold regularly, so meeting people with tissues, runny noses and coughing is highly likely at this time of year.

Yes growing up we bought potatoes by the four stone bag (paper). Kept in the dark in the shed, they lasted ages. Not sure if you can buy big bags like that in England? Just those crappy little plastic bags in the supermarkets