Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I'm going to order a new book for myself and dc. If you're stuck indoors you need to entertain yourself too - we try to limit screens especially with DS, who goes mad after them.
Suddenly library books from Brighton aren't so appealing!

Thank you for the new thread. I’ve been reading with interest over the last 2 threads. Some of the suggestions have been really useful. I’m living in Singapore and as others have said, there’s been quite a bit of panic buying here. I’m doing well on canned food- have been building up stocks for a few weeks- but didn’t manage to get more than a few masks before they became impossible to get.

We’re currently isolated at home as my husband’s office have sent people home for a week or so as a precautionary measure after a possible exposure for one member of staff. I’ve been staying in for the most part anyway for the past few weeks as I‘m a SAHM with a one year old and have a very low risk tolerance!

Unfortunately our little one had an allergic reaction last night so we had to rush to A&E and were briefly directed into the isolation unit due to the situation with my husband’s work, before they assessed the likely risk and kindly ushered us out. Fingers crossed we haven’t been infected, then or in other occasions.

Never handsoff he will always be on the medicine and will have to adjust his life accordingly

In the ideal world parents/guardians would discuss what children can do to look after themselves, but it's doing it without scaremongering.

This is tricky. Ds2 is 12 and asked last night if we are all going to die. I told him of no of course not darling, if the risk increases we would stay at hime for a while and keep out of the way of other people. We do however need to be really careful about washing hands frequently, using hand gel and using tissues. DH immediately started on with some crap about how its less contagious than flu and theres only a 0.2 percent chance of death and only old people catch it (and a load of other bollocks he's heard through the grapevine at work). I corrected him on all of it (cue a strop and frantic googling to try to prove me wrong - house full of lawyers here who cannot bear to be wrong ). He then said I was worrying DS2 . But getting the balance between reassurance and risk is hard. I want the DC (and DH) to be washing their hands more frequently and Ds1 needs to stop biting his nails. If they think everything is fine then they won't change their habits.

My DC are 12 and 14 and so its a bit easier but they still really worry about things. DS1 in particular is prone to carrying the worries of the whole world on his shoulders.

In my opinion telling children that it’s all going to be FINE is setting them up for more worry when the rumours whip round the playground and when they catch a bit of news about more confirmed cases around the UK.

Surely it’s better to give them sensible advice about hand washing etc and say there’s no need to panic but the best way of avoiding it is to keep healthy and practice good hygiene?

Nails is a good point hasa I keep my son's very short. Long nails are a breeding ground, especially fake nails.

I agree Dyrne. They need to know how to keep themselves safe. Obviously I don't tell my son that these viruses are making people die, I just say that it's making people very sick and how keeping hands clean etc is important

Just dropped my son off at school and went into the office to discuss how the fruit is distributed at play time as my son says they don't wash their hands....
There was a mum in there with a crying child who is saying he is not well. The mum confirmed to the office that he isn't well and can they keep an eye on him.
This is what we are up against. Makes me so mad.

This is what we are up against. Makes me so mad.
But if the mum didn’t take him in she’d be bullied and threatened by the school. In fact schools insist that you take your sick children in so they can decide if a child needs to stay at home, it’s not your decision. THIS is what we’re up against - kids spreading coronavirus in pursuit of schools perfect attendance figures.

I agree with you! The whole system stinks

Aureum -totally agree re attendance. We're in Brighton and my son has a persistent cough but he's gone in today. He's been off sick 3 times since September, mostly with stomach issues(possibly anxiety related). His school are crazy on attendance figs, because of the government, Ofsted etc. It's bonkers in England, they fine you for anything over 3 days here

www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/275785

This has just been posted on one of the other threads.

You can't believe everything you read of course but these sorts of numbers (or even a fraction of them) would account for the actions being taken by the Chinese.

My kids go to a large primary school. On one hand I've seen a lot of automatic anti bac dispensers appear everywhere in the last fornight and staff are hot on reminding kids to use them which is great.
But then they have taken the youngest class on a school trip today in gale force winds. We live on the coast and there are wheelie bins flying around, my baby class was cancelled this morning as it's in a building on the seafront and it's been deemed too dangerous by the rnli to go down there. The school is a few hundred metres up the road and the trip goes ahead as normal. Taking 90 4 year olds out in this weather seems ludicrous to me. That's not me being a snowflake. But if something was to happen to one of them, it wouldn't have been worth it. It makes me kind of trust the school less in terms of making their own decisions. Unless directed by the council or dept for education, it just seems to be a British mentality of "we need to carry on because nobody higher up has told us not to and we can't make our own decisions".

I also inadvertently upset my 8 year old yesterday, I was trying to impress upon her the need for good hand hygiene and she laughed at me and said that School had told her that the virus was not really in this country and most people recover so not to worry.

So I told her that I was more at risk, and her grandparents were and that being really unwell for several weeks would be horrible for her so she absolutely had to wash hands etc but I obviously over did the scare tactics :(

Frustratingly the 14 year old laughed and said how much he would enjoy 3 weeks of quarentine with Netflix, games and meals delivered.

Ffs :(

Frustratingly the 14 year old laughed and said how much he would enjoy 3 weeks of quarentine with Netflix, games and meals delivered
He won’t enjoy it when there’s no food because the delivery people are in bed sick with coronavirus and the electricity has gone off because the power plant workers are sick too.

Oh and there's a huge flood warning in place covering the area. At least it will be character building for them

I am getting frustrated with people who think they are oh so casual about it. And if you are worried or preparing at all you are some sort of paranoid crazy person. The Chinese reaction to the virus surely indicates that this could be much worse than we are being told. It may just be another cold virus. But it could be something much much more serious.

In despair this morning, went to collect a prescription from my GP surgery - the receptionist proceeds to lick her fingers before flicking through the prescription pile.

Is there really any need??????????? Disgusting.

I have to take my youngest to a (routine) hospital appointment today. I guess I should think about bringing some toys rather than letting her play with the communal ones - she does have the capability to understand not putting her hands (or indeed the toys) in her mouth. There are signs up around the hospital saying "it's ok to ask if I've washed my hands" with a picture of a smiling doctor or nurse - today I might do just that.

*doesn't have the capability.