Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

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Hopingtobeamum that’s a really good and comprehensive basis for a work policy there. People will be pleased to hear that my workplace (Utility) included a reference to the Coronavirus in their staff newsletter yesterday and assured everyone that any sort of Pandemic illness was already covered in our Resilience planning which is good since usually we can’t organise a pissup in a brewery

If things got more widespread then I would have thought the best way of getting groceries to minimise contact would be to do an online shop, get them to decant into bags directly at the front door, then to thoroughly wipe/wash everything before putting away (then thoroughly wash hands). I think you’d end up with a lot of things being out of stock very quickly though.

Very glad I don’t have to take public transport to work and can just walk in.

UtterlyPerfectCartoonGiraffe hope your DC feels better soon! I’ve been reading some reports in the US of acts of racism against those of Asian descent; I’ve not heard of any major incidents here thank goodness.

ThierryEnnui and others - always interesting to hear from those in other countries where it’s hit harder - hope you are holding up - do you have enough food etc to tide you over?

Handsoffisback many posters on here have children in vulnerable or at-risk groups.

Handsoffisback yes, my 5 and has a liver transplant. He's on medication to lower his immune system so he doesn't get rejection. He already has a lot of time off with various illnesses as school is just germ soup.

If you are new to it, you need to prioritise depending on your budget. Food, drinks,cleaning stuff and medicine first? Think calmly. Buy what you eat anyway or stuff you would eat.

Try things like cupshots cup a soups and cous cous packets that just require water added for if you are ill.

Dyrne I’ve not yet tried to create much of a stockpile (beyond some overpriced imported Jacobs Cream Crackers ) but restaurants, hawker centres - where you get cheap, hot, freshly cooked meals - and supermarkets are open as normal at the moment. I think in the next week or so I will have to have a good think about stocking up properly, particularly in case I am quarantined if the Ministry of Health have any suspicion that I may have come into contact with an infected individual and I get stuck indoors for 2 weeks. At the moment I have 5 unused masks and 8 bottles of hand sanitiser as my stash - they are sold out everywhere! If this sounds incredibly lax it may be because I live alone so am only fending for myself as it were.

Slightly nervy about the epidemiologist who has come forward to say that the virus could be caught by 60% of the population (on Guardian’s live updates now). I’m not worried about catching it myself as I would be highly likely to recover but I do worry for the vulnerable like my elderly grandparents.

Realistically if this spreads when do you see the govt telling people to stay inside and no one allowed out? I don't mean the pre warning if avoid public places unless you have to advice I mean forced lockdown?
A few days, a week, couple of weeks?

I'd say several weeks at least. We must be over a month behind China on this, with the travel and incubation.

As we are already talking about kids with low immune systems, I will share a few ways we try and keep our son safe at school at the moment. They may be suitable for the coronavirus.
School uniform carries a lot of germs at the end of the day according to medical papers I read, so I take it off straight away and either wash in Dettol washing liquid (it's in the laundry aisle) or I put it in a carrier bag in the freezer overnight. The flu virus dies when frozen and obviously I don't know about Corona but it's possibly the same.
When he comes out of school I use hand gel straight away. Lots of it.
He has a thorough hand wash when he gets in.
Even though he is only 5 it is drummed into him to not touch his face or mouth and he washes his hands lots through the day and I've supplied his teacher with a hand gel which is on her desk.
On the school run I make sure he doesn't touch the buttons on the road crossing, in fact even I touch it with a tissue and throw it away.
He doesn't eat anything that other children bring in school or that is made in class and I know it sounds mean, but he doesn't attend class parties that are at soft play. At other parties I bring his own food to eat.
There is probably more and I'll put them on here when I think of them.

Difficult to know. Depends on how quickly the health people track down the Brighton contacts. Whether the Southampton case is confirmed, whether there is a case in Bracknell.

I am not impressed by the self quarantine for two weeks but let your kids go to school lark.

Well one thing is for certain, I'll be immediately forbidding the DC to use the bus when it comes near us! Five people coughing and spluttering. Only one tried to cover her mouth.with her hand...which she promptly put on the pole to stand up when she leftt the bus

I've started to get meds in and will add some flour etc today. Can't do too much at once as I have to carry it all home!

Thanks Warren, that is really helpful.

ThierryEnnui it sounds like you’re doing a sensible risk assessment (though the Prepper inside me is screaming “go get some rice and pasta in!” ) Prepping for one is much easier though, as you can more happily ration yourself rather than have to judge how compliant others will be!

CrapTVAddict i think it’ll be a few weeks yet - though as PP have said previously I’m not sure we’re set up in the same way to enforce a major quarantine due to Cuts in public services. I imagine we’d draft in the military and Reserve units to man temperature checkpoints etc if it came down to it.

Do you use a rucksack to get it home?

preponderings it's vile isn't it. Happened to us in the Coop about 2 weeks ago. Woman on the till had a bad cough and was coughing into her open hands and then serving people 🤮
Money, as in cash, must be riddled with germs too.

Talking of rucksacks, have you noticed how some staff open bags in shops? Licking their fingers...
If you have to go to the shop it is best to use your own bags.

Lovely preppers,

I've been reading these Coronavirus threads since they started and they've prompted me to open a Tesco delivery. But I've now got a £200 order of tins, candles, UHT milk, Dettol and loo rolls, and nothing we ever actually eat!

I will start again. 😂 I have till midnight to change it.

Am I right in thinking we don't buy a Doomsday load of tins? We just buy more of our usual everyday stuff?

It's not helping that I'm on WW at the moment and dreading gaining weight during the pandemic because I can only eat Ambrosia custard all day.

Where does everyone find out their local news? Do you follow the local newspapers etc?

@AnuvvaMuvva , a bit of a buffer is fine. We've all got out of the habit of doing so because shopping is so easy at the supermarket. And cheap.

Also, if people are forecasting it being 3/4 months until it gets really bad, do you worry about finances? Both DP and I work essentially in the tourism industry, so hours are slow at the moment and pick up in peak season, so not much chance of saving hard right now. DP is the main breadwinner but self employed, so we will struggle really badly if no one is still holidaying!

@bellinisurge Thanks! I'll tweak it. If only to stop DH making fun of me forever for panic-buying Fray Bentos.

I work in a well-known store. One person will put out stock direct from delivery. Any spare goes into storage and will be brought out by anyone as and when needed. If new lines are coming in or a shelf clean is done, often two people will work on that removing all items. Throughout the day, items are tidied, pulled forward for good presentation - all staff will do it at some point in the day. Germs will linger on keyboards, screens, from cash and we also have quite a lot of key coded doors. So a single item could have quite a few people touch it. The only positive is that we've always had hand sanitizer by tills, offices and antibac hand soap by all sinks, with no restriction on use, both good quality.

I also work in a school. I'm more concerned with this. No antibac anywhere, children regularly coughing without covering their faces, if they're upset will often wipe a runny nose with their hand and hold mine for support, who knows about handwashing and generally just the high volumes that pass through some areas, a seat in the dining hall could sit three children in an hour a door handle could be touched by 200 in an hour. In the ideal world parents/guardians would discuss what children can do to look after themselves, but it's doing it without scaremongering.

Yes, usually a rucksack although today I brought a shopping trolley. DH does the weekend shop with the car but he will literally only buy what we're going to eat. I've run out of washing powder before. That only changed when we ran out of beer too
I go through self service when I can because it's easier to faff around packing my backpack than at the served counters!
On Friday a guy reached in front of me with one arm to put something back on the shelf and he was holding a scrunched up tissue in the same hand

"Can survive on train poles for 9 days!"

Wear gloves.

You might still rub your eyes with a gloved hand, but you are way less likely to put a gloved finger into your mouth/nose. Mittens might be even better, as it would be awkward to rub eyes and you might catch yourself in time to stop it.

Also, taking them off when you come in is a good cue to wash your hands.

(This has made me wonder about the Tube network, in particular the Piccadilly Line. Esp as closure of public transport was an early containment step)