Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

According to the lovely Dr on MedCram, the single most effective thing you can do to support your immune system is to get enough sleep.
Which is hard, when you’re in a constant state of worry & anxiety

As OYBBK said earlier, I’m also going to try and keep myself away from the news tonight.

What, do you think Sajid Javid Would have been better off down at Heathrow personally handing out the leaflets?! Honestly, I’m a member of the Labour Party and no lover of the Conservative government, but conspiracist thinking is no help to anyone and clearly contributing to some people’s anxiety.

Just seen on the news that the Bath case was negative. However they interviewed a student from Bristol who had self isolated as she arrived from China (half an hour from Wuhan) in January. She said that she didn't feel the university were doing enough which was interesting.

I'm not suggesting it's anything as organised as a conspiracy!

Yes mermaid carex is good

Really interested to see the Chinese figures tonight.

@ofwarren I must admit I don't worry too much about stuff aerosolising flushing my own wee 🤔 Should I?! 😂

Am married to a GP and I can confidently state that in our area PHE's response is abysmal. I asked DH if surgeries had been given any masks, protective clothing, more funds for careful cleaning of premises etc ahead of possible infected patients ... nope, the CCG and PHE are basically arguing about who pays for any of this stuff, and have been for weeks.

Feels like fiddling whilst Rome burns.

It's everyone else's poo you should worry about avocado. Look up toilet plume. More worrying with research showing coronavirus can spread via the fecal-oral route.

Who on earth is talking about a conspiracy? Nobody on here has said that or even suggested it. You stated that public health is top priority for the government over and above economic concerns. I don't think we've seen evidence of that being the case. We have seen evidence of downplaying risk and minimal safety measures.

Nobody is saying they've ignored it but they have to balance economic considerations with public safety considerations (public panic), dealing with public backlash if the masses begin to think they or their civil liberties are at risk and also containing the spread of the virus. Its really naive to think that the economy isn't a key concern.

Whilst all this is going on our hospitals are coping with bog standard flu cases, this alone is an awful strain on our health board because so many retire here so are elderly and vulnerable.

I've been lurking on these threads, as I can be overly concerned with health and safety and I've got a holiday booked to go to Japan at Easter
I realised today that my travel insurance was a pile of shite, as it didn't cover for cancellation due to FOC / WHO advice not to travel and would only pay out £500 each for anything going wrong during our trip, that was due to infectious epidemic type scenarios.
Have now changed insurance to one where I could buy a travel disruption extension cover. Which will be valid as there's currently no advice not to travel to Japan.

If you've got trips booked, read all the small print of your ins

posted too soon.....
Read the small print. Otherwise, you may find that your insurance isn't going to be of any use.

I don't think we'll be able to shut borders until we really don't have a choice.

Boris' Brexit plan relies heavily on forging future trade deals with China, and this won't happen if we chose to cut them off now.

I know it's previously been used as hyperbole, but it's starting to look like Brexit really will cost lives!

www.expressandstar.com/news/business/2020/02/13/virus-hits-jcb-production/

Now it's affecting us in a different (though not unexpected- way.

I'm wondering if anyone's seen/heard of a test result for the student hospitalised from Sussex University.
Student left in an ambulance Monday afternoon. For some reason I thought tests took 48hrs, so expected to see some public announcement today.
( Practising calm thoughts, as have DC on same campus.)

Totally agree sleep is very important, I'm chronically sleep deprived because of being woken several times a night due to caring responsibilities.

I sometimes use my sleep button when I can't drop off again. It was made by sleep scientists and works if you want to go to sleep but your mind is bouncing from one worry to another.

Offering the link in the spirit of prepping .

Ten of the Diamond Princess confirmed are now considered 'critical'.

It takes c. 2 weeks usually to either recover or get worse so we could see more becoming critical over the next couple of weeks (especially with the likely age/health profile)

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f3fr4n/100peoplebroughttofftheediamondprincessscruise/

Evidence

I haven't heard an outcome for that one yet but generally no news is good news. If they test positive it tends to be announced quite quickly - on the other hand if they test negative they repeat the test 24-48 hours later to confirm the negative result

I've a no tech rule in my bedroom, (cos I can't be trusted to turn it off at a sensible time ) but that does look like a good app.

Moving post from Wuhan:

m.imgur.com/gallery/5YJIrYJ

Neome that sounds like just the sort of thing I need for when I can’t switch my bloody brain off. Downloading it now! Does it require purchases? I liked the look of the Calm app but too much of it was behind a paywall.

wheresmymojo that’s a heartbreaking post. And although I had considered how difficult it would be with so long without being paid; it’s a whole new level when you consider this happened right on the back of a huge holiday which partly involves giving away money.

Thank you wheresmymojo.
Appreciated

Gosh that diary post is so sad. It made me cry.

It worked for me with the basic version, Dyrne, later I added another pack for a couple of pounds (scenes, very effective for me).