Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

That's just it halcyon, who is going to present themselves as a direct contact when to do so means they wouldn't be able to pay their rent or feed their children, especially when the 'it's just a flu' brigade are in full song?

The government need to protect the jobs of those who are isolated and guarantee their income (immediately - not some time in a few months when admin gets around to it).

Self isolation for a potentially fatal disease is never going to be a good plan. Fair enough if the system is overwhelmed but at this stage it isn’t

The government are making decisions based on a far fuller and more accurate data set than random internet people. Schiphol have an explanation of why they don’t use temp scanners - it would pick up lots of colds and flu and miss asymptomatic Coronavirus. So there’s no point. That 15 second transfer was always likely to be nonsense. Etc etc

This was in a newsletter I just received. Interesting to read a first-person account of life under the threat of the virus:

Here in Hong Kong the Wuhan virus (or Corvid-19, to use its politicaly correct name) has successfully scared protestors back into their homes (conspiracy theory anyone?) but only at an even greater cost to the city. I find the smaller aspects of these kinds of 'happenings' interesting. We've been told to limit contact with other people, and even to limit contact with things other people contacted. So everyone is now pushing elevator buttons with their elbows. People open doors by pushing or pulling either way up high or way down low - presumably on the theory that everyone else is still grabbing door handles in the regular place. But everyone is now doing this. You're terrified to cough when out, and if God forbid you sneeze, anyone within range quickly adjusts their facemask. And there's been a rush on toilet roll, rice and hand sanitizer with prices rocketing. Toileting has never been so expensive! Perhaps it's lucky we're short on rice.

Oh please, they are making it up as they go.

Honestly, thinking that - for economic reasons - government ministers in a functioning democracy would be overruling the best advise public health officials can come up with is full conspiracy chemtrails territory. They’ll make some mistakes, of course. But we have a publicly funded health service. It’s in noone’s interests to let a new virus spread out of control.

I agree that the Govt isn’t taking this seriously enough...but if they won’t after wuhan, WTAF would it actually take 🤬🙇🏻‍♀️

They should have done more, sooner. Stopped all flights from China & some other places too.

More actual isolation places available ‘self isolating ’ meaning everyone in the house, otherwise it’s NOT isolating.

Public places cleaned

More handwashing facilities/gels.

You know, generally act like it’s a SERIOUS CONTAGIOUS VIRUS,

I always do that kind of thing with door handles and lift buttons.

I mean I’ve been doing it long before the Coronavirus.

Me too

Me three. Emetophobe- germ avoidance is life

Honestly, thinking that - for economic reasons - government ministers in a functioning democracy would be overruling the best advise public health officials can come up with is full conspiracy chemtrails territory.

Oh don't be ridiculous.

@ChipotleBlessing

I don’t think it’s deliberate move to protect the economy, I think it’s just an inability to actually ACT.

spread around Brighton. Hardly. We've seen a handful off cases

I’m glad it’s not just me. No doubt those of us who do weird stuff with door handles are also careful hand washers. So that part of the door will be cleaner.

Of course economic issues are taken into account. Which is why when China put Wuhan into lockdown and big companies decided to close their Chinese branches temporarily, you knew it was serious.

@emmabryant

From your first post

This thread is bloody batshit.You are all feeding each other's anxiety.

...all the way through, you have done nothing but make make rude & needling comments.

This is a prepping thread, in the prepping topic and until now, all three threads have gone well. We don’t all agree with everything, but we have disagreed politely...if you just want to maintain that we are all batshit & over reacting, can I suggest you might prefer the go go on the AIBU threads on the topic. Please

My public toilet self-preservation routine has been honed over many years and is quite something to behold

What do you do for public toilets that don't have a lid on the toilet to protect you when you flush avocado? It's a dilemma! Do you flush and turn your back or do you leave it unflushed?

Honestly, thinking that - for economic reasons - government ministers in a functioning democracy would be overruling the best advise public health officials can come up with is full conspiracy chemtrails territory.

With respect, that's quite naive, Chipotle. Balancing competing interests and pressures is literally the job of governments (even good ones, which I don't count this one as). That's why, for example, powerful new drugs for rare conditions aren't necessarily available on the NHS if their cost is so high that it would jeopardise other, more widely needed treatments.

And yes, wind it in Emmabryant, there's a love.

Of course governments balance priorities. And if you think the priority here will be anything other than containing a potential imminent public health disaster you’ve been spending too much time on the wrong parts of the internet.

Is this what you mean by 70% alcohol? Tesco are sold out of Milton, but have full shelves of various types of Carex.

@PurpleCalm
Re the 2 York cases, someone mentioned on one of the threads on here that they had been discharged but I’ve no idea where that info came from as I haven’t seen anything official.

Of course governments balance priorities. And if you think the priority here will be anything other than containing a potential imminent public health disaster you’ve been spending too much time on the wrong parts of the internet.

Yep, that's why they've spent the day reshuffling.

Mermaid, yes, that's fine.