Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

It seems 111 have sometimes told people with symptoms to get themselves to hospital, instead of telling them to stay at home and wait for the paramedics.

How lovely for the people that used that Uber car afterwards

A prepping question has anyone used Chlorine Sanitising Tablets ?

Yes, you get a leaflet on the plane. I came in from HK yesterday and we all got one. There were Chinese nationals on the plane. Only self quarantine if you have been in Hubei in the past 14 days, nothing for other parts of China.

prepping question has anyone used Chlorine Sanitising Tablets ?
Are they bleach tablets? As in found next to bleach in supermarket? If so, yes I've used before. I have a tub in our self-catering holiday box. Seemed more practical than a huge bottle of bleach.

let's not blame the lady yet. Sometimes 111 can be really crap. She may have interpreted private vehicle as an uber, which technically is a privately owned vehicle!

I wonder where she was the day before....

Poor Uber driver.

Singapore had 8 further cases confirmed today, bringing us up to 58. I think the highest number of new cases in a day since this started, but it doesn’t feel like it’s out of control here. All the new cases are linked to the 5 known clusters, most notably a new cluster (in a church) with 2 cases yesterday and 5 today. Otherwise, panic buying is easing off and I’ve heard supermarkets are restocked again (particularly with toilet roll, which was the hot commodity last weekend). Unfortunately we’ve also started to hear about an increase in dengue cases, which is worrying.

yeah, bloody nightmare for him or her. They will be quarantined and have no income for two weeks.

It's not just the Uber driver, but two staff at the hospital. I'd like to know if it's PHE/NHS who have let them down or the lady concerned. Assumming I to go on holiday in April, I'll be looking in advance to see what the requirement of my destination are.

1st German patient has been released and the remainder are doing well and are expected to be released soon

Has there been any update on the original 2 cases from York?

I had a telephone appointment with my GP as I suspect I have flu and I'm pregnant. They said they want to see me so have booked me in for an appointment this afternoon. Despite my symptoms, they didn't ask me anything about recent travel. I know that I haven't been to or flown through any of the affected areas so I know that there's no chance of this being coronavirus, but I thought as standard practice they'd be asking the screening questions before they invite you in to the surgery with similar symptoms.

I bought a box of 70% alcohol injection site wipes (because they’re small, so less waste for when I only need to wipe my phone or something) does anyone know if they’re likely to wreck my
iPhone screen/metal case/screen protector?

I'm not mega worried but I do live in the Borough of Lewisham so feel like it's kind of getting closer! It's also getting closer to London's travel system.

I use my injection wipes for my ipad
glasses cleaner works really well though.

We recently called 111 because DD had a high fever and DH’s colleague just travelled back from HK at the end of Jan. 111 said we were low risk so told us to go to the GP.
GP was quite cross with us that we were sent to them if we were worried about having the virus.
111’s reasoning was that DH had no symptoms so it’s unlikely to be related. It was unknown whether DH’s colleagues had any symptoms at that point as it was a Sunday. Luckily the colleague is completely fine. But it does seem worrying. Suppose DH’s colleague carried it back asymptomatically, and passed on to DH, then it’s possible we just got sent to the GP and infected everyone in the waiting room.

kirinm I’m in a neighbouring borough and have a friend who works in the A&E dept at Lewisham. It’s felt to me for a few days that it’s too late to try and contain it.

I didn't realise there's been another 44 cases on the cruise ship so now up to 218

The cruise ship is a floating Petri dish

I know it's not coronavirus but feeling very uneasy about a strange virus that has swept through our school this week with lots of children getting high temps and hallucinating, with quite a bad cough and then recovering quite quickly.
It's not the virus that worries me, it's how quickly it's spread. Other parents seem to be just as worried as nobody has ever seen anything quite like it.
As far as I know nobody has had any contact.

we've all had that virus you are talking about wellididntseethatcoming

it takes 7 day incubation period

Do you think the health department over here are playing it down for some reason?

Tropical am also in Singapore and far more concerned by the dengue news. Sounds like a particularly virulent strain out there.

(My local Giant had bog roll throughout last weekend - I was so impressed!)

I've just been reading up on dengue fever...the lack of focus on it compared to COVID just goes to show how little we in the West give a shit as long as it doesn't come here...

Each year between 50 and 528 million people are infected and approximately 10,000 to 20,000 die

The Uber driver in London has been told he's not as risk as the journey was less than 15 mins...

Coronavirus: More may need to self-isolate to stop spread - NHS boss https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51486131

But one of the Chinese cases was tracked back to a 15 second(!) encounter at a market

I'm trying to not get anxious. I'm still not overly concerned except for my mum. I have stocked up on medicines, tins, some water. Last night I ordered spare power backs, spare charger leads and plugs. I wrote a grab bag list which I now have everything for. If my anxiety cramps up I would start to pack the grab bags but my main worry would be mu kids ( seems likely they would be dine) or during to another county for my mum.

I'm done with my prep too, so just rotating my months stash of dried food and tins and following this as it unfolds. Being as prepaired as i realistically can be has made me feel much calmer as the news gets worse.

I'm very much from the scientific background that is just nature. We cant prevent things like this. I'm not sure really what would happen if we tried to out smart every bug that crosses species. It's part of nature. Like CJD, we possibly shouldn't have been feeding sheep brains to cows. All the time that humans unset the balance these things will persist