Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

@Burpeesshmurpees I bought a UV phonesoap just under a year ago I think now, my phone gets filthy as we live on a farm and I'm always paranoid about how many germs it could have on! I give it wipe downs with cleaning wipes once a day and in the UV about once a week.

TBH I don't understand how people are agreeing to this. If I was told to self isolate I would insist the DC and DH left before I went home so that I didn't infect them.

Japan has confirmed a Dr has been diagnosed with CV and they're not sure how he contracted it.

They have also had the first death in Japan, a woman in her 80s.

The most interesting point is that she wasn't diagnosed with having CV until after her death so hadn't been in their confirmed numbers.

So if she wasn’t diagnosed with coronovirus before , she may have been in a normal hospital ward rather than isolated?

I imagine that would be the case...

Gosh that’s worrying

I was planning a short trip to Europe in a couple of weeks that I've not booked yet. I've no need to go, it was to be for enjoyment purely!

I'm now not thinking it's worth being on a plane - is this an overreaction?

I am worrying about my holiday in Europe in August so not even sure that I would go anywhere right now..

But you know what, I think this virus is everywhere and now cannot be contained. The only thing to work towards now is a vaccine.

How do parent carers self isolate? I just couldn't...

@NathanNathan

Here is an interactive tool that showing implications for flying and infected cases

cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/traveller_screening/

Is the woman in Japan the first death outside China? That will make a big difference psychologically. It feels like 'no deaths outside China' has been a mantra people have been hanging on to. A bit like 'all of the UK cases were contracted overseas' - as though there's somehow something worse about people infecting each other on British soil, heavens forfend.

How do parent carers self isolate? I just couldn't...

I'd send my DC elsewhere (grandparents/friends) and then stay at home

There have been deaths in Hong Kong and the Phillipines

Personally I wouldn't be cancelling travel to destinations outside of Asia.

The risk is still very low...unless you have an underlying illness or are over 60 you have a 99% chance of being fine even if you catch it.

The probabilities of catching it are tiny.

If the probabilities increase you're probably as likely to catch it running errands at home as you are going to Spain or wherever.

That's my take anyway...

I realise those with underlying illnesses and compromised immune systems need to be more careful.

I have no one who can care for my son. No local family etc...

This is near me - as far as I can tell they're being very cautious. Closing down and disinfecting just because someone has been in who has visited China?

www.farnhamherald.com/article.cfm?id=139415&headline=Farnham%20GP%20surgery%20closed%20amid%20coronavirus%20fears&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2020

trib.al/qPhA9Xv

I know it's the fail but still..

@Skyejuly

I don't think you really need to worry about it though do you?

Honestly the chance of you being infected at the present time is tiny and unless you or your son have underlying health issues(?) then you wouldn't need to be massively concerned about you or him catching it.

By the time it spreads further I doubt they will be quarantining anymore...it's highly unlikely the UK would take an approach like China. They wouldn't put full lockdowns in place IMO.

In my family the inlaws both have cancer one prostate and one lung/liver cancer. My partner is smoker and not healthy by any terms and my child has immune problems so I would be cautious.
I nag to the cows come home about smoking obviously he smokes outside the house.

Did everyone read about the Hubei cases 14,840 new cases Thursday, compared to 1,638 new cases the day before. Due to new criteria/ testing 242 new deaths, more than double the 94 the day before.

The London confirmed case got an Uber to A&E instead of following the advice to stay at home and call 111

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/london-coronavirus-patient-turned-up-hospital-uber-taxi

I guess at least she didn't get the bus or a tube 🤷🏻‍♀️

Oh FGS. So what instructions are actually being given to arrivals from China? Don’t they get a leaflet on the plane?

I've sort of given up making sense of the numbers from China now TBH.

Interestingly they have widened the definition in Hubei but not in any other provinces - seems odd.

What I'm now watching more closely is the H2H transmission in HK, Japan and Singapore. We'll get a better idea of what to expect from these areas which are probably a couple of weeks ahead of us.

To my knowledge they're given a leaflet on arrival listing the symptoms and are told:

• To self isolate for 14 days after arrival

• To call 111 if they get symptoms

111 would then arrange for paramedics in hazmat to attend and pick them up.

Oh yeah, you're right, Hasa, my bad.