Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Personally I'm not changing any plans at the moment including visits to London as the risk is still infinitesimally small and I'm probably at greater risk of being hit by a car on the way there.

Plus I'm in my 30's and no underlying health issues with me or anyone in my household so most likely for us it would be a cold or flu type experience.

My assessment would be different if I/family were immunocompromised.

I have a question about anti-viral medication which I don't know if anyone here will know the answer to, or would have read about.

I'm pregnant and think I've got flu. The NHS website says that I may need anti-viral medication (such as tamiflu) which wouldn't cure the flu, but would help to minimise the symptoms making admission less likely. I'm currently waiting for a call back from my GP about this.

I know that tamiflu was also prescribed in the swine flu outbreak. I just wondered if it's being used to reduce the symptoms of coronavirus and therefore reduce the number of necessary admissions?

Burpeesshmurpees I had a woman behind me in a queue last week coughing without covering her mouth. It took all my strength to not say anything, don't know why though, as she obviously doesn't care about other people. The builder looking chap in front of me, said I'm not saying here and left.

Don't know which airline the London lady flew with, but Easyjet issued a notice advising that they were trying to trace people on Steve Walsh's flight. Hopefully all airlines will do the same, so it clear to those who've flown if they need to get checked.

Sorry thar you might have the flu allthesharks, hope it's not too bad and doesn't require admission.

Tamiflu comes with some side effects, from what I've heard, but if the GP thinks it will help then it's probably worth taking.

I don't think tamiflu has been so effective on coronavirus? Someone else might come along with a better explanation.

Didn’t the GP friend of Steve Walsh who was also diagnosed take a flight? She flew back from France to do medical exams. So that’s another load of plane people that need to be contacted.

Would people say a child with allergies is more at risk?

Having flown from HK yesterday, it is interesting to see the difference in approaches. Compulsory temp check at HK and non stop disinfecting of washrooms and toilets, people using tissues to touch door handles and everyone with a mask. Heathrow- leaflet given out on the plane, no temp checks and toilet areas in need of a good scrubs and no masks.

I haven't seen anything to suggest that a child with allergies would be more at risk.

Generally the symptoms have been much milder in children.

Only things like a compromised immune system or issues with lungs or cardiovascular issues would be a concern.

I'm not a doctor though, this is from everything I've read...

I am so worried about this. I've been popping out every morning this week to stock up on freezer food, tins, loo roll, kids medicines etc. All stuff we will use anyway, but if it comes to it I'll feel better prepared and happier if we need to stay in the house for a while!

I’d love airports to step up their disinfecting and cleaning. More hand gel stations everywhere. There is definitely more that can be done and we can look to other countries to see what measures they are taking.

Interesting Boris is not saying a word about this.

A taxi driver in Tokyo has been confirmed with CV which doesn't bode well for Japan's containment.

I think that tweet about it being known about since 2005 is bollocks tbh. Most (all?) coronaviruses originate in the bat population, and there are lots and lots of them. Some then cross over into other species and then (rarely) some cross to humans, and then more rarely still some can survive human-to-human transmission. So the fact that there was a reservoir of (some kind of) coronavirus in a particular bat population written about in 2005 is vanishingly unlikely to be related to this, and all of the researchers working on it seem agreed that it had never been seen before December 2019. At most, it might be a mutation I suppose, but if so then there's no reason to think that ignoring it in the past was an act of negligence. That's my take on it anyway.

There is good info regarding this on the WHO website, I read the situation reports daily.

I am worried about this as I have health problems. Also worried about my family.

Welcome back to the That's really crap of Heathrow. It's such a world

World hub..
Sorry train jolted.

Anyway, I've been thinking about how part of prepping is about mental health.
If you get drawn into things too much and are getting anxious and struggling with sleep and what not, you'll be getting tired and your immune system will struggle more.

So it might be worth considering how involved you are getting and creating space in your day that is totally free from news. Especially around bed time and first thing in the morning.

It's something I need to look at. Between this and weather (and work) my brain needs less analysis and more rest and more playtime.

cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html

From the London school of Hygiene and Tropical medicine.

I also watched an expert update and this was a link from one of the presentations.

www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/how-effective-thermal-scanning-airports

Problems with thermal scanning at airports oh joy !

That's an interesting link. So we can see why hotspots grow, where as individual cases are less likely to do so.

So it might be worth considering how involved you are getting and creating space in your day that is totally free from news. Especially around bed time and first thing in the morning.

I agree completely. It's easy to get too involved in constantly updating yourself, particularly if you suffer from anxiety.

OhYouBadKitten that's so true.

I've done the bit of prepping I can. Beyond trying to get the rest of the family to wash their hands I am done.

I've just read a long comment on one of the articles in the Brighton Argus (www.theargus.co.uk/news/18231078.nurse-coronavirus-self-isolation-speaks-alleged-mismanagement/), which purports to have been posted by one of the colleagues of the locum GP who has been positively diagnosed. He is in self-isolation as a primary contact of a diagnosed person. His partner, with whom he lives, is not required to be in self-isolation as she's only a secondary contact. (I'm guessing at pronouns, using ones that make it easier to keep track of who I'm referring to.) So, while he's staying at home and having no contact with the outside world, she's coming and going, running errands, getting food in. Both have viral symptoms but that could equally be because the partner was already going down with a cold when the Covid contact took place. Neither of them has been tested, but he's 'sure' he'll be negative when they get around to it. I should add they are following the PHE advice they've being given, not just making it up as they go along.

Am I alone in thinking this is ridiculous? His partner may be only a secondary contact of the confirmed diagnosis, but she'll be a primary contact of his if he transpires to have it too. Since they cohabit, until they've both been in isolation for 14 days (or 24 if you prefer) and remain negative on testing, she should stay at home too, shouldn't she? Otherwise, this is how germs spread, right?

I feel like I must be missing something, but this makes zero sense to me and is precisely why I don't feel reassured by the PHE reassurance as it seems to have such a logic void underpinning it. Can anyone explain to me why I'm wrong?

That's ridiculous. Self isolation should mean isolation, not living with someone who is not isolated.

This sort of advice makes me think they know its already widely circulating.

Would be somewhat ironic if the frequently criticised Chinese authorities handle this more effectively than ours..

I've wondered how one would self isolate and not another. It doesn't follow how other countries are doing it.