Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Just read it may be that they criteria for inclusion of cases was changed and now clinically suspected cases are included as well. Not sure if that's all current cases or new ones today though. Very confusing.

gnews.org/

Well, there are some fascinating theories.

Whatever the true figures and the true history, soap and basic hygiene aren't high enough priorities for most people in this developed country, let alone amongst the less well informed.

For anyone paying in stores with a mobile phone rather than a card, remember Tesco still impose a £30 limit, I think Wilko and B&M might too. I got caught out at the Tesco petrol station and they refused to let me pay for £45 worth of fuel in two transactions, I had to leave with a non-payment form and go back with my card (or cash) to pay for it.

Hi all. I've been watching this guy from the US. His videos seem really knowledgeable and balanced. This particular video and his next ones will talk about things we can do to help ourselves and our immune systems. Thought some of you might fine it interesting

Also posted on AIBU: there's a massive reported jump in new cases and deaths in Hubei BUT please look at @SuiLee and @HelenBranswell on Twitter. Criteria for diagnosis has changed - doctors can now diagnose based on symptoms (ie without testing partly because testing is proving inaccurate especially when considering CT scans. The deaths presumably would jump because now they're from confirmed cases rather whereas before those weren't being counted. Highly recommend Helen Branswell as a voice of concerned reason.

I'm thinking of cancelling our half term trip to London btw. Don't want to spend a couple of hours cooped up in a theatre / on the train / questionably clean hotel room. Does that sound silly? Actually very reasonable DH is more convinced than I am of the case for cancelling. We live in a rural-ish area with plenty of space. Don't really want to be rushing headlong into crowds unnecessarily.

@DestinysDaughter you will only get the cost of your holiday refunded if the Government travel advice is not to travel to Ibiza. At the moment there is no such advice so you will lose your money.

We have a holiday booked for June and I am nor considering cancelling. Obviously if things change nearer the time we will review and go with whatever the official advice is.

@Destinysdaughter

If your insurance won’t pay out you might be able to change dates with the airline/hotel

If you can’t and still can’t nearer the time then you’ll just have to see how you feel then. If you won’t enjoy it then stay home. The money is spent either way and you’ll spend more away (rather than at home).

I expect,right now, you’re friend will look at you like 🧐🤨

I'm not cancelling my holiday in May. I figure we have no idea what things will be like at that point. We might have had it and recovered.

Still no news from Bath... The tests started on MONDAY. Don’t believe they don’t know, they just don’t want any damage to our tourist industry. Really angry.

I wouldn't be cancelling a holiday just yet (unless it was imminent travel to the far East in which case I would definitely cancel).

News from Vietnam is not good at all. Its not unexpected but it isn't good.

Just checked this morning's figures. Even with the strange distortion of a large number of new cases we still have an 18% death rate which is increasingly worrying.

We haven't booked anything yet. But have pretty much decided we will not be flying. I've offended family members by refusing to go to a reunion. My cousin also isn't going, we're the only two who have to travel internationally. We'll either holiday from home or go somewhere we can drive to and rent something rather than a hotel.

I'm wondering about the DC's activities. DS is a bit worried and fixated on it, they've obviously been talking about it at school so I want to make them too worried about it. Just enough that they'll wash their hands properly and not wipe their hands over every available surface in the bus. They've a national tournament coming up and both want to go to a week long course in the Easter holidays. I need to book now if they are going to get a place...

DH has been pretty blasé about it all. Until last night when he said his employers are going to wait until the end of the month to decide whether or not to cancel their attendance at a conference. He's also read an article which says that although a lot of medicine is made locally, 80% of the active ingredients come from China... so I went and redeemed 3 months of medicine and the pill from my prescriptions. Don't want to risk running out of that! As soon as my credit card clears, I'm going to do a double contact lens order - I've no idea where that stuff is made.

and I'm tempted to dig out the anti-nail-biting varnish to let the DC taste just how often they stick their hands in their mouths

Why would you cancel a trip to London? Millions of us live here. There are no problems. I travel on the tube most days, eat in restaurants, I’ve flown to Paris for a meeting and next week we’ll be flying for our skiing holiday.

There is no reason to make changes to your plans.

How have you come up with 18 per cent

Are you in the UK preponderings? I wish my GP would allow 3 months worth of prescriptions! Even my son's life saving drugs we are only allowed 30 days at a time.

18% is the figure for cases with outcomes, but this will be distorted by the more severe cases. We will have to wait 2 or 3 weeks to see how the new method of counting affects this.

Is it.
Never heard such a high death percentage except on MN 😅😂

Regarding case outcome: given that the Chinese are struggling to test all of their newly affected I can't imagine they'll be testing those who recover? With resources so stretched perhaps accurately keeping track of those recovering isn't possible which might account for the terrifying outcome figures. Or is that too optimistic of me?

@Emmabryant123 you can see the 18% figure via this link, under 'closed cases' www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We're meant to be going abroad in April, have a window of eight days off for which it was hard to find flights confined to that time as some landed early into the ninth day. We've only been able to get three lots of four days off together for rest of the year.

On any one day I come into contact with up to 220 people a day, ie within 2 metres. Realise there could be far more on a confined plane, but taking a few days off overall I'd be in contact with less during the week. Just need to see how it goes, I guess.

@Emmabryant123

The following is based on data from a few days ago, but reaches the same conclusion:

"CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

1,369 / (1,369 + 6,079) = 18% CFR (worldwide)

If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:

2 / (2 + 77) = 2.5% CFR (outside of mainland China)"

Taken from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/, which explains the calculations really well.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Has a good discussion on how to estimate CFR including the 18% figure.

One common error is people failing to realise that you have to compare the figures of when people acquired the infection (2-3 weeks ago) when numbers of infected were much smaller, with those who have now subsequently died.

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