Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

According to the article

"But Government sources suggested it would be pointless if Brussels does not follow suit as passengers could still enter Britain indirectly via another EU state due to freedom of movement rules.

'What is the point in one of you banning flights if none of the others are going to do it?' a senior government source told MailOnline. 'Because you just get in by an indirect route.'

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said: ‘We can monitor flights from China landing back in the UK but we can’t monitor those landing from China in the rest of Europe. EU freedom of movement does make us more vulnerable.'

The Home Office said it was unable to confirm whether or not UK border force officials could tell if a traveller had been through China in the past 14 days because it could compromise security."

I'm not sure there's much benefit to be gained from banning flights from China at this stage. It's here already. I don't see any way the Brighton lot and today's London case haven't infected enough people for strict containment efforts to be made impossible.

The article is referring to European travellers coming back from China. Freedom of movement isn't available for none EU countries.

Maybe to be clearer, "people from China" could mean "people who have been in China". They don't have to be Chinese.

Agree with AvocadoOwl though - feels a bit too late.

True, how come freedom of movement come into this? China is not part of the EU.

@lemonjumper
The article is complete nonsense and the usual fail scaremongering. Yes, the UK border forces probably would not be able to control an EU citizen (or a British citizen!) who travelled China -> EU airport -> UK. In exactly the same way as they won't be able to control an EU or British national who travelled China -> Non EU airport -> UK. Border control is dependent on the nationality you hold, not the country you are travelling from. Chinese nationals don't gain a right of entry to the UK by landing in the EU

@ofwarren
The UK has "freedom of movement" in this sense, i.e. visa free entry, with many countries in the world. Check it, you'd be surprised.
OK - so the scenario that the Mail fears is that a European holidaymaker returns from China, let's say, to Germany, on landing finds themselves ill with coronavirus symptoms... and what? Immediately hops on the next plane to the UK? Why? Just due to being purely evil (it's the EU after all) or out of desire to abuse the NHS?

My NDN flew from China to Amsterdam then back to uk and had no problems at all getting in, I'm more than a little concerned!!

@SympatheticSwan I'm not agreeing with or defending the article in the slightest - just summarising its main points (and that it's not saying the EU can prevent us from banning flights, which was mentioned earlier).

I don't think the 'government sources' in the article are suggesting that Chinese nationals could get to UK via a different EU country, but that EU nationals (including British) who have been to China could.

I doubt 400 people are going to be willing to be quarantined because they took the same flight as her, most people can’t afford to, irrespective of anything else.

Did I miss a conversation about the people on the Wirral?

Why aren’t they being kept 24 days, not 14,now we know the incubation period can be longer?

I was wondering that too, AmelieTaylor . To be honest they didn’t seem that bothered about that first lot to begin with. To me it was like they only decided to quarantine because of the backlash against the original plan not to quarantine.

I read an article today rounding up some of the social media posts from people on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship - they’re in surprisingly good spirits but later tweets definitely start showing the strain.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/mjs538/tweets-that-show-what-its-like-on-the-corona-virus

@lemonjumper
Apologies, I probably overreacted - as an immigrant, had quite enough of the Fail's vitriol during the last couple of years.
The truth is that the freedom of movement is neither here not there in this scenario. EU citizens who are settled in Britain obviously will be attempting to return home (i.e. to the UK), even via indirect routes, in the same way as native British will - they have lives and families here. In this, it does not matter if their stopover point is Amsterdam (EU) or Dubai (non EU), and they will be returning under the British own new immigration rules as we are post Brexit now, not the freedom of movement.

Unless there are fears of sudden influx of EU tourists to the UK following their visit to China (because who does not like two expensive holidays back to back during the times of pandemic), the freedom of movement is irrelevant.

For comparison - a Hong Kong national, for example, can enter the UK without a visa under the UK own immigration rules, flying through Dubai, Moscow or any EU port.

With this new quarantine law, will this be able to be implemented on none British citizens? So, say for example they were to tell the people on this flight to self isolate and they didn't, could they be forced to with this new law?

They've quarantined a town of 10,000 people in Vietnam after 5 positive cases there

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f2xnch/locallavillageeinvietnammaround100000people_is/

I just imagine being locked in a small cabin with my kids on that cruise. We would all be ready for murder......

The woman that came through Heathrow obviously seems to have been aware of the guidance, followed it and identified herself. How many people wouldn’t bother, particularly with minor symptoms?

I'm starting to panic a bit now as I've booked a holiday for Ibiza in mid May. We obviously don't know what will have happened with the virus by then, but it's spreading worldwide at an alarming rate.

Am tempted to cancel the holiday, to avoid airports and being on an island with pp from all over the world. AIBU to want to cancel now?

How many people wouldn’t bother, particularly with minor symptoms?

Well, we’ll find out, won’t we?

It can be so hard to track people coming into the country tho. i work at a smaller airport in the country and we constantly have people coming from china, japan ,Singapore etc but they have normally had a layover in Amsterdam, Brussels or Frankfurt.

@Destinysdaughter. If your insurance will pay out, personally I’d cancel - I’m pretty damn sure I’m not going to want to be flying in 16 weeks & you can always book something else if you do. I imagine they’ll be begging people to take flights & dropping prices as soon as it’s deemed safe enough to fly

The latest figures out of China are late to be announced tonight.

AmelieTaylor thanks for that, I was wondering if I was overreacting. I'll talk to my friend who I'm going with and see what she thinks.

May is quite warm so it may be naturally dying down by then, according to some reports anyway.

Wow, now we know why it was late. A leap of nearly 15,000 new cases in one day after 2-3,000 per day previously.

What changed? Is this the tipping point?

They did a LOT more tests today. Apparently. But also this is just a more realistic portrayal given the predicted rates suggested by that university paper the other day.