Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Ariella it is amazing is it not.

Perhaps we should contact our MP's to discuss it.

The lapse of concern is shocking we should at least have checks at airports. People are just walking off flights with no recourse. Juggling with lives.

Perhaps we should send Boris to personally welcome each passenger with a handshake. That may focus the mind a bit!

In one of the medicines aisles, for surgical spirit. Bottom shelf in the Boots I used.

I was just about to type the same thing. I'm going to write to mine tomorrow.

Yep so she’s travelled in on a flight and then made her way to central London somehow. Likely spreading it. When this could have been avoided if the government had acted sooner like other countries and stopped flights coming in from China.

Apparently we are still under the EU jurisdiction until next January. We are not allowed to stop flights coming in without the agreement of the EU.

All respect to Italy who have defied this and stopped direct flights in for a few months. Sensible early steps stop infection.

This latest confirmed case really could have been avoided.

Boris is an incompetent buffoon. Let's hope that there are some experts leading the team.

Our local chemist had surgical spirit on the shelves this morning - a bottle just lept into my hand.

DH isn't one for prepping, hasn't said much about CV, but ended up having a mini discussion about it earlier. I said I didn't want it as (1) I ddin't want to pass it onto people I cared about - no comment (2) I've had pneumonia twice (and felt really ill) - at that point he acknowledged we needed to avoid it!

A virologist was quoted in the mail 4 days ago saying a travel ban (similar to other countries!) would be a simple, proactive measure to take..

If it comes to it we will simply pull up the anchor and ride it out in peace. Our other boat is for our family.

An airport "Welcome, we are always open for business!" handshake from Boris sounds splendid!

Interesting about Italy.

Czech government too has stopped flights from China.

Is it really the EU that's keeping us from banning flights from China...sounds a little far fetched to me!

It has been the go to excuse for so long they can't help themselves.

We are not allowed to stop flights coming in without the agreement of the EU.

Do you have a source for this? Cannot find anything in google search.

Oh for a minute there I thought somebody had finally found one benefit to Brexit.....never mind, as you were!

The EU should consider travel bans, several countries in Asia have banned flights from China and other neighbouring countries for a while now. Philippines has also banned its own nationals from flying To China, Hong Kong etc for whatever reason including work. Their boarding passes are being confiscated, though presumably people here would scream blue murder if the Govt did the same here.

The article about EU immigration laws was in the Daily Mail.

www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7968785/UK-ban-flights-China-block-foreign-citizens-entering.html

OK, so the EU has no say in whether we ban flights from China, but people from China could still come to the UK via other EU countries due to freedom of movement.

And we would still have to accept them that way, due to EU immigration laws. Though of course we could just pop them straight into quarantine on arrival if we wanted to!

This virus was already in London.

It's just that she got tested because they're focusing on people who have travelled from the right location.

Vast majority are going undetected.

I thought freedom of movement was just for EU nationals? She's Chinese.

OK, so the EU has no say in whether we ban flights from China, but people from China could still come to the UK via other EU countries due to freedom of movement
No they cannot, unless they are EU citizens (the freedom of movement applies only to EU passport holders). UK has a completely separate immigration system for Non EU citizens, and always had. Chinese nationals cannot come via EU countries to the U unless they have been vetted and issued with a UK visa beforehand.