Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

The Argus have also provided a list of places that have pupils or staff self isolating:

Schools

PACA
Carden Primary School
Hangleton Primary School
Varndean School
Cottesmore St Mary Catholic School
Balfour Primary School
Brighton Girls' Girls
Lancing Prep
Ratton School - Eastbourne
Ocklynge School - Eastbourne

GP surgeries

County Oak Medical Centre
The Haven Practice 
Warmdene Branch Surgery 
The Avenue
New Pond Row, Lancing

Hospitals

Worthing A&E
Mill View Hopsital

Other

Cornerstone Community Centre - remains closed today
The Grenadier Pub

For anyone on Reddit - a new sub-Reddit has started r/Coronavirusuk

For anyone who isn't ill be linking to anything interesting from there anyway

Transcript of the Radio 4 interview today

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/f2po3j/transcriptoffradio44todayinterviewwwithprof/

Sounds good @FourTeaFallOut I'll check out Amazon thanks too @bellinisurge.

Anyone else's DC keep diving into the food store ? Grrrr

I'm going to get a sack of spuds at the local farm shop at the weekend popping corn, jelly, chia seeds for making eggs and whole milk powder if anyone know of one that tastes half normal ?

www.lazycatkitchen.com/flax-chia-eggs-explained/

That's a lot of places on the list! I'd be in a right flap if I lived there right now

@ofwarren

Could you please do me a favour?

I want to buy a new thermometer & the forehead type seems like the best idea, I had a look but spent ages down the rabbit warren being indecisive (I can’t make my mind up about the simplest things these days). Could you please send me a link or screen shot of the one you have

Or anyone else with one that’s proven itself.

My son's liver transplant consultant recommended any of the ones by Braun. Just looked on Argos and they are much more expensive then they were! We only paid £35 for ours!

@SlayB. I can’t help you, sorry. I try to eat vegetarian keto, it’s a challenge! I’ve tried various chia seed recipes and frankly haven’t been able to eat any of them.

As for going into the food stash - They seem to have taken on board that they can have money, they can go to the shop now to get what they want. In future they might not have such free access and will appreciate it being there ...plus I’m scary & they know it’s just not worth it! 🤣

@ofwarren. Thank you. Braun was my ‘go to’ but they are expensive if I had a worrying child like your DS I’d get one no problem, but ours sits in the drawer used about every 2 years ... it’s done us fine for years I’m only getting this ‘just in case’ for CV. I’d rather buy stuff and not need it than not buy it and not have it- but it’s starting to look like ‘soup kitchen meets pharmacy’ and my bank card is groaning.

Re ear thermometers, we have something like this: www.amazon.co.uk/Braun-IRT6020-ThermoScan-Ear-Thermometer/dp/B00M35Y2MC?tag=mumsnetforu03-21
It’s a basic Braun ear thermometer and has lasted nearly 20 years. Used fairly frequently when DC were younger.

I suggested that my employer should advise people to avoid unnecessary face to face meetings and use tele/videoconferencing where possible instead of travelling and/or cramming people into a room.
I felt as though people where looking at me like

We’re being asked for volunteers to attend various future training courses & conferences, yet in my head I suspect they probably won’t be happening. Would love to be wrong.

Ds has just complained that I am being too stressy about coronavirius and hand washing. He's an 11 year old know it all whatever stage.

His attitude is going to get fined I think.

Going to collect one girl. Straight into dad's house and wash hands I think then come home.

I have a basic ear and and forehead thermometer in one. was about 13 quid on amazon

@1happyhippie I agree. I was getting anxious but now I have bought a few tins, some bleach, some calpol and Ibroprofen etc I do feel a bit better about it. Its not a completely wild thought that at some point one of us in the house might be asked to self quarantine and as long as we are buying things we will use there is no harm done. Worst case is the food banks get an influx of food in a month or so.

Also if some of us are stocking our cupboards now then it means if anything does happen not everyone will be running to get supplies at the same time.

I have my 2 home today with a virus and realised how little I actually have when they are home for the day! We have completely depleted the fruit and bread already! X

Interesting Reddit thread in disinfecting smartphones

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f1rlr1/whyynooneementiontoodisinfectpersonallphone_as/

Link not working for me... I'm spraying mine with Dettol most days

Guardian reporting the prisoners have had the all clear

Also everyone at Arrowe Park negative, so will be released tomorrow

Brilliant news about arrowe park and the prisoners. Just need good news out of Brighton now. Fingers crossed.

I've just seen another thread about someone finding some old fashioned sanitary towels with loops for sale - my face mask replacement plan may actually work

Guardian reporting a confirmed case in London

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7996675/amp/First-coronavirus-case-confirmed-London-Chinese-national-tests-positive.html?__twitter_impression=true how are they going to contact everyone the man was in contact with in London? Nightmare

Thanks for the smart phone link.

VINDICATED

I fucking told you that your phone was filthy... (This is not directed at anyone on thread)

I read that sanpro thread and thought of you mojo.

I hope those things have improved since I was a teen, one tended to walk like a cowboy just off his horse, they were rather thick and wide.