Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I saw an expert a minute ago on the news saying they thought they were only catching 1 in 3 cases which arrive in the uk. If the government know this they must be assuming it will start to spread now

Honestly starting to think that they’ve decided thinning out the older and less fit is an ok outcome. Otherwise wtf are they doing?

39 new cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship = 174 cases to date

Yes naturalbornwoman it does seem strange

Sorry to bring it back down to small practical items rather than the global picture, but...

Is anyone able to explain what it is about dettol or miltons that makes them kill CV (as opposed to other products also claiming to). & are we still confident in both of those?

Same with the antibacterial hand soap etc. There doesn’t seem to be anything to tell one apart from another. I assume Carex is amongst the best, but why?!

Obviously hand washing seems to be the main way of keeping it away, but does anyone know if washing hands thoroughly and then applying hand sanitiser helps?

My work environment isn’t the greatest and I’m wondering if the 70% alcohol hand gel will give me any additional protection? AFTER hand washing in a environment where others will NOT be washing their hands regularly (or at all
Properly)

It’s all so frustrating. I’ve bought more bloody plastic, chemicals & ‘wipes’ this week (hand gel bottles, packets of wipes etc) than I’ve bought in total over the past few years. I don’t want to be buying this stuff... but I’m quite fond of keeping me & mine alive and thus seems like the best way 🤬

Actually today my focus is on what I need if we start with D&V that many seem to have started with, rather than the cold.

Oh and getting some more hand sanitising gel as I’ve just had a refund from a place I ordered some from, they’re now out of stock 🙄

If we end up not needing all
of this, I’m going to be able to run a very clean soup kitchen 🤣

NaturalBornWoman it is starting to feel like they'd rather some people died than the economy take a hit! I can understand the initial measured reactions, but not the continued flights from affected areas and the insistence on Brighton schools staying open for 3 more days when an early half term closure makes so much sense.

Inspired by this thread, I've started a prepper stash. It surprised me how calm I felt stacking up my tins! I'd thought it would stress me out of make me more anxious but, in fact, the complete opposite.

Question: do you tell your (sceptical) DH and DC where your prepper stash is? I've bought a few of their favourite things, so I'm not convinced they won't just quietly graze from it whenever I'm out. It's hidden at the moment but it feels wrong to keep it a total secret. But if I hint at it, they'll go looking.

I'd obviously reveal it if we were housebound or bedridden. But until then - do I tell them?

God, I really feel for the poor cruise ship people. Yet another reason never to go on a cruise...

Closer to home, DS has just come in early from college (planned) saying that his friends have heard some other students have been quarantined. Nothing formal from the college though, except a confirmation that they're open and everyone's expected to go in. Great! Totally ready to keep him at home now like floaty said, except that he doesn't want to miss work and I can't possibly teach him in his A level subjects. Wondering at what point I just insist. Thank god it's nearly half term. I can't believe things won't be clearer in 10 days' time.

I'm waiting on money to come in from clients and can't stockpile til then. Please would you all send my clients 'pay up' vibes!

I've just mixed 25% surgical spirit into the large bottles of hand gel from Home Bargains. It's gone cloudy but goes on much in the same way.
It's 95% ethanol, so adding it to hand wash will only help.

This thread is bloody batshit.
You are all feeding each other's anxiety.

And I have diagnosed health anxiety

Bye then Emma. Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out.

Where are you Eagle?

latest thoughts on CFR from Imperial
www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

This is a Prepper thread

Definition Prepper :

A person who believes a disaster or emergency is likely to occur in the future and makes active preparations for it, typically by stockpiling food, and other supplies.

While you're telling people not to be negative you're not really planning and safeguarding and protecting people. Reality is what it is.

Here in Singapore we’ve reached 50 cases. Bad news is 8 are in critical condition in the ICU, but on the other hand 15 have now recovered and been discharged. 5 clusters so far- worryingly, one is less than half a mile from where I live. But it’s a small island so it was bound to happen at some point.

GF's aside I'm thinking of buying one of those fancy Forehead Thermometer has anyone else bought one ?

I have an ear one that I bought yonks ago when dd (now 12) was a baby. Because of MS, I can't judge her forehead temperature at all - weird sensory shit in my hands - unless I kiss her on the forehead.

Yeah, I have one. They're great. I only got a cheap one from Amazon, you don't have to get an expensive one for it to be accurate.

@Emmabryant123 I have health anxiety too. 🖐🏻 (high-five fellow hypochondriac) But I've found that just piling some tins, loo roll, drinks, water, biscuits, medicine and cleaning supplies in a cupboard has actually helped to calm me down.

Instead of trying to herd my thoughts into optimism, despite their predilection to veer into a pessimistic rut, I'm working with them in a more Taoist way. As in, "I can't stop the virus. But if we get hit by it, I've got enough supplies in to last a month while we're all sick or quarantined." It's one less thing to worry about.

I've spent my life trying to ward off anxious thoughts. I can't. But I can prepare (to some extent) in case any of my worst fears come true. Just like making a will, buying life insurance, giving up smoking or making sure I eat 5 a day. Like seeing the doctor, going to the dentist, or taking vitamins.

And if my worst fears don't come true, I can have a Fray Bentos party next year. 🎉

And if my worst fears don't come true, I can have a Fray Bentos party next year

I find this thread really helpful.
I’m not overly anxious, I am just watching and listening. I have bought a few extra bits, both food and medicine and have been on top of the dc regarding handwashing.
When you stop to think about it, you are actually in contact with a hell of a lot of people everyday!
School, work, bus ride, quick shopping trip after work, after school club for dc etc. A lot!
Plus all the things we touch that could have been touched by others. Money is a big germ collector!

The cruise ship is worrying. If the worker has boarded the ship equipped with face mask and gloves and still managed to catch it just by filling in paperwork with the passengers, that’s concerning!

@EagleVisionSquirrelWork

he doesn't want to miss work and I can't possibly teach him in his A level subjects

If he knows what topics they'd be covering he can do some self teaching from the course textbooks, reading lists and online resources.

Prepares him for Uni as well where a lot of study has to be self directed (I got 10 hours lectures per week for a law degree, the rest was up to me)

The PHE 2pm update today says UK still stands at 8 confirmed cases so the prison results must still be outstanding.

I think inews who reported it as confirmed must have had false info.

Forehead thermometers are fab. Means you can check a childs temperature when they are asleep too.

I think inews who reported it as confirmed must have had false info.

Yeah, they've edited their article to give the same details as all the other media outlets now cynic

The Brighton Argus have also confirmed the PHE announcement that there are no new cases. Good news for the South East although I understand that the contacts of the Brighton cluster may need to be re-tested over the next two weeks.