Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Why can’t they just say if there’s no news from Bath and Sussex? I think they know more than they are saying. My kids all have severe asthma and live in the area.

I'm going to pour surgical spirit into my hand sanitizer and shake. The end result will be a thinner product but will still spread more easily than pure spirit.

Did the prisoner tests come back clear?

prisoner cases are now confirmed positives I believe

Omg 😭

People in Brighton are calling for schools to be closed and I must say I agree. The director general of the WHO is saying that the world needs to wake up and take radical action to prevent this getting totally out of control, and yet the advice PHE and the DoE are still giving out is the opposite. It's eyerollingly stupid imo.

My husband has always been a snow prepper after he got stranded away from home back in the awful blizzards in the 80's but we'd gradually eased off over the last few years so a lot of what we used to have around has gradually been used and not replaced. We no longer go camping either so all our camping equipment has been moved on, so now I'm wondering whether to grab some kind of camping stove and a supply of fuel "just in case".

How likely is it that we'd see power outages if the virus takes a strong hold here? Is it worth getting a camping stove? I'm aware they shouldn't really be used indoors but I'm thinking that opening a window now and again when heating something up isn't going to be an issue as we live in a detached bungalow with a reasonable gap between us and our neighbours.

I'm undecided about masks - there seems to be so many ways this gets transmitted that it almost seems a bit pointless - though as I said I'm undecided and working my way through the previous prepping threads to see what the prevailing school of thought is.

prisoner cases are now confirmed positives I believe

Hang on I read that but now can't find the source. I have too many tabs open. Don't rely on it until I check where it was since Sky news (generally first of the mainstream channels to report) are not reporting it. They have named the prisoner though.

Eagle vision - I disagree about Brighton parents. Anecdotally it seems more that I know are sending them in

Eagle vision - I disagree about Brighton parents. Anecdotally it seems more that I know are sending them in. But I agree the schools should shut certainly for the next 3 days

I'm undecided about masks - there seems to be so many ways this gets transmitted that it almost seems a bit pointless - though as I said I'm undecided and working my way through the previous prepping threads to see what the prevailing school of thought is.

Masks are not as good as not going out. But most people will have to go out. I'd get hold of masks whilst you can.

How likely is it that we'd see power outages if the virus takes a strong hold here? Is it worth getting a camping stove?

I don't think we are likely to see any power outages at all. I do still think it's a good idea to have a camping stove - just generally, not for the coronavirus

I can find the prisoner story here

inews.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-in-the-uk-prisoners-test-positive-hmp-bullingdon-oxfordshire-1474438

Which was half nine last night, and now there's little else on it

Bit the worldometers site remains at 8 for the UK, and they have updated the previous cases within a few minutes of confirmation to the public.

I'm in college today and have to get the bus there. Everyone coughing not covering their mouths.
What is it with public bathrooms too? You wash your hands and then to get out you have to pull a handle that has been touched by all the people who DIDN'T wash their hands!! Such a design flaw.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2060KJ?__twitter_impression=true
Singapore's DBS evacuates 300 staff after employee contracts coronavirus

Yes, I agree Notstrong that people are sending kids in, but only because the schools are insisting they do. But a lot of people are really unhappy about it, especially with half term being so close anyway. It's an interesting question as to how compliant people should be with instructions. Not to be dramatic, but potentially this is a situation where being non-compliant with advice could save your life. I suppose I feel that the authorities might end up wishing their advice had been more cautious if (a) Covid gets totally out of hand or (b) society as a whole gets totally out of hand because enough people believe the advice is poor and needs to be ignored. Either have worrying implications imo.

A PP mentioned contactless payments. I always used to use my card for this but there is a limit and every so many transactions it demands your pin. Ive discovered if you use your phone there isn’t a £ limit (if there is I’ve never hit it) and you don’t ever get prompted to use your pin in the chip and pin machine.

Glad people are talking about this sensibly! I've been trying and failing to talk it through with my OH. Decided I'll just do what I want to do now! Thank you for all the ideas if things to stock up on :) x

It's a fine line between slowing the transmission rate and slowing the economy. If Brighton did shut down the schools, you would have a lot of parents off, using sick days or annual leave to look after their kids when it might be better to save it for a more serious response. At the moment (at least), we are able to trace who has it and who has been in contact with them.

I still think it's Africa and India who are the most vulnerable to this.

It's an interesting question as to how compliant people should be with instructions. Not to be dramatic, but potentially this is a situation where being non-compliant with advice could save your life.

This is preppers. Typically we follow advice to be careful (eg self isolation etc - do as you're bloody well told) but don't entirely believe advice that every thing is "Fiiine"

I almost wish my son was still at his old primary and the passive aggressive texts they would be sending if this virus spreads.

'We appreciate there is a pandemic but the school remains open and we would like to thank the majority of parents who acknowledge that regular attendance is vital for a child's education. #attendance matters '
#PandemicWontStopLearning

Can anyone tell me if this would help?

groceries.asda.com/product/hand-wash/baylis-harding-jasmine-apple-blossom-luxury-hand-gel/910002425249

Ingredients
Alcohol Denat., Aqua (Water), Carbomer, Glycerin, Propylene Glycol, Parfum (Fragrance), Styrene/Acrylates Copolymer, Aminomethyl Propanol

Features
With added moisturisers. Kills 99.9% bacteria. Paraben free.

It's an interesting question as to how compliant people should be with instructions. Not to be dramatic, but potentially this is a situation where being non-compliant with advice could save your life
I agree. I've never been one to just be compliant though, especially where health is concerned. It comes from having a severely ill child though. I've saved his life in the past by not being compliant. I prefer to be over prepared and over react rather than just thinking that all will be ok.
At least then, if something goes wrong I will know I did all I could to stop it. No regrets or "what if" then.

nearlyschooltimeagsin I don't think you can tel from that information. You need to look on the back of the bottle. Some don't say what the alcohol content is, in which case I'd assume not high enough.

But is says its not available anyway.