Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I went to the gp today. I checked in on the touch screen with my knuckle then gelled my hands and again before I left.

I'm getting more mindful of how often I bite the skin around my nails and rub my eyes. Which is a lot!

My mum has had phenomena ( have I spelt it right? Dyslexic here)and never been admitted to hospital. But as I said before she is all kinds off crazy. Goes out in the snow for exercise. I keep telling her if she breaks a hip she will catch MRSA as her hospital is rife with mrsa.

I will try to not think about the number of critical care beds. Hopefully my mum would continue fo be tough as old boots. I think shes my main concern really.

Agree re: likely sensationalist Fail headlines - imagine the nurses were completely compliant with quarantine (though hope they are being given support with childcare/logistics issues!)

Plan to go and do a top up at big Tesco’s tonight was sidelined by going to the pub. Alcohol kills viruses, right?

Noticed work have put up hand gel stations on the way into Head office today - not sure if it’s the general time of year or actually Coronavirus related, but I’ve never noticed them before...

Hubei is reporting 1638 new confirmed cases and 94 new deaths.

That is a significant decrease in new confirmed cases which were at 2000-2300 per day.

Perhaps not unexpected if they've stopped counting anyone with a positive test result who is not symptomatic (yet) though

imagine the nurses were completely compliant with quarantine (though hope they are being given support with childcare/logistics issues!)

I wouldn't bank on it. there's an active thread currently with an apparent nurse saying she'd refuse and that anyone who disagrees with her (most of those on the thread) are sensationalist daily mail readers.

This is really interesting (pandemic modelling last year, inc videos of discussions).

www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html

Thanks for the threads, by the way. I've been reading even if no time to comment and it's been both interesting and useful. I have a leftover Brexit no deal stash which I'm using and rotating plus I bought 8 massive bottles of anti-viral hand cleanser when this all kicked off.

I had two realisations today as I went around town to get some bits in so I don't have to go again for ages/during half term.

One was that surgical spirit is likely the actual same thing as spray on hand sanitiser. I spoke to a pharmacy assistant in Boots and confirmed. They've run out of all types of hand sanitiser, but not surgical spirit.

The other was that while I never use contactless card payment and never understood the point of it because it was sold as timesaving but only seemed to save me seconds at each transaction, it's brilliant for avoiding spreading germs on keypads. So that's me finally sold on the idea!

Surgical spirit (what the Americans call rubbing alcohol) will definitely do the job in the same way as alcohol hand gel.

Surgical spirit is used in hospitals. Anti bac gel doesn't work against viruses AFAIK.

GoldenMarigolds apparently it works if it is at least 70% alcohol. Milton brand is, but not lots of the mini hand gels you can get. Was checking in superdrug yesterday -- all the ones still on sale were a lower percentage. They did have massive bottles of "NHS grade" stuff for £15 though. (I didn't get it.)

Anti bac spray is very fine and does work against viruses too. Gel is thick and has varying amounts of alcohol in it, often around 60%. Do I remember rightly that for the new coronavirus we need at least 70% alcohol? Surgical spirit better than most hand gel if so.

Can I add surgical spirit to my 60% hand gel to bring it up to 70%?

I asked on another thread about fireproof document boxes but it's such a boring question, no one answered. Not corona related, but I'm sure I picked up the idea from here -- can anyone advise which one they've got, and what they keep in it?

The advantage of the gel being that I've got some pink stuff that my DS is more likely to use without complaint

www.aspli.com/1791/spirigel-complete-500ml-fully-virucidal-bactericidal-alcohol-hand-gel/?gclid=CjwKCAiAvonyBRB7EiwAadauqRgnX8tjn_vCf_zHtORg9ZvVNHcIFflidpr4lEXTkBpgTYhcSijaLRoCdmcQAvD_BwE

£5 for a really big bottle. 85% alcohol. If you buy 12 or more it is less than a fiver per bottle.

Hi all.... I’ve been lurking for a few days and getting a bit worried now!

Does anyone know how long tests for the virus take? Apparently someone is being tested at the uni in Bath. There have been no results back and we were told about it yesterday daytime. Surely they should know by now?

I’m thinking of keeping my kids off school tomorrow. We live in Bath obviously!

This has made me feel a bit better..

inews.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-in-the-uk-prisoners-test-positive-hmp-bullingdon-oxfordshire-1474438

Has anyone seen official confirmation? That's like another cruise ship surely?

I think they might have to test a few time to confirm a negative user. At least, you'd hope so.

HasaDigaEebowai

I read this interesting BBC article this morning covering more from a political aspect, and talks about the Censorship and explains why it’s been harder to get decent news from China recently: Coronavirus: China and the virus that threatens everything www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51449675

So still no news from the suspected case in Bath 48 hours later... Surely they must know something by now?

I'm sure it's better than nothing Burpees make sure you use lots and wash your hands as you are already doing.

The results for the prisoners were reported quite quickly. I'm another wondering about Bath and Sussex unis, which both reported on potential cases the day before.

I was wondering if China's new cases are lower as they've been in lockdown, and it'll go up now many are back at work.

R4 now - limit social interactions (handshaking / hugging / kissing). Masks are thought to be a diversion from more effective prevention.

I'm sure it's better than nothing Burpees

I agree. But its still possible to get surgical spirit (and even at a push cheap nail varnish remover). I'd put that in little spray bottles.

The lidl hand gel (white one) is over 70% and was still available a couple of days ago in tiny bottles. I haven't checked since then though.

I know its hard but try not to touch your eyes, nose or mouth when outside and wash hands as soon as you get home.