Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Generic hand gel is about £0.99

A D Notice is a request to the media not to publish articles on a particular subject for reasons of national security.

An expensive one [sigh]. It's not like there is a cheaper alternative either. Everything, especially medication because it has to be sold through a pharmacist, is more expensive. Vicks, paracetamol, ibuprofen, strepsils etc is all behind the counter.

I know someone mentioned this yesterday....

The number of new cases confirmed is going down in China at the moment - which is great news and hopefully means the very strict measures they've put in place are helping to contain (or at least delay) the spread of the virus.

However we also need to bear in mind that the CCP have changed their definition of a confirmed case.

They have started to exclude people who test positive for CV but have no symptoms.

I don't quite know how this practice works for people who have no symptoms at the time of the test results but that go on to develop symptoms later...

Joining thanks for this thread. I've just ordered a big online shop for next week full of tins, packets, jars, cat food, nappies etc. Gonna pick up a couple of extra bits every time I go to the local shop too just to stay stocked up. Me and the 2yo have had constant bugs since he started nursery in January anyway and it's made me really aware how important it is to have full cupboards

@Neome lol! Good point!!

Thank you for this third thread. Its moved fast!!
I too am getting through gallons of handcream. That gel is disastrous for skin and nails. I try to do proper hand washing most of the time and gel for when it's not possible.

We've found the Ring Fit Adventure on the Switch good for entertaining the DC on rainy days. We originally got it as DC1's physio suggested it for him.

Disclaimer: I'm assuming we will still have running water and electricity if there's a quarantine and that the world will not disintegrate. If we're without electricity, the DC will probably kill each other after 3 days and I will be in a drunken stupor.

Has anyone got any reddit links for this topic? Tried Google but didn't find anything sensible.

£60 in Aldi. But at least I came home with lots of stuff to show for it.

£17 Vicks.. omg.

@Gammeldragz for prepping or for this coronavirus?

||www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf||

Just looking at Table 1 and the CFR. Those poor, poor people in Hubai. 18% is staggering.

It also illustrates:

a) Why WHO and China have taken the actions they did (it always felt too extensive for "mild" flu) and

b) Why we should not panic, outside of that region.

My unscientific guess is that the CFR ticks upwards when the hospital services get overwhelmed and people simply don't get the support they need. So, as long as we can contain it, the fatality rate remains low.

I have a stock of FP3 masks now and a lot of the Lidle hand gel. Going to start thinking about food next.

Lemon - for CV.

Jeremy Vine show talking about it now. Someone quite good speaking at the moment.

preponderings ouch! I hope salaries are proportionally high to make up for that price gouging!

For those that can’t afford to prep much - can you get to an Aldi? I reckon spending less than a tenner in there would stock you up for a reasonable amount of time. And don’t panic if you can’t stockpile much - every little helps!

One thing to worry about as a knock on effect is how people on low incomes will cope - food banks etc likely wouldn’t be functioning or at least will have their donations plummet. Fingers crossed this will have less impact than thought and everyone will be donating their stockpiles!

Brighton man is a proper social butterfly! My PHE tracker would have it easy at the moment: “Right, so you had a lazy weekend at home because you couldn’t be arsed to go anywhere, then to work, then home again because you’re an antisocial cow”

I did make a conscious effort today to wash my hands as soon as I got to work while pushing open doors with my elbow, because I always end up sniffling and blowing my nose on the walk in due to the wind. Really made me wonder how often I’ve waltzed in without washing my hands because I just don’t think about how often I’m touching my face

Going to go to the big Tesco tonight I think to top up. There is an unconfirmed case near to me which has made me a bit twitchy!

@Gammeldragz try:

www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/
www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/

Interesting story about an outbreak outside of Wuhan

"Nearly a third of the confirmed coronavirus cases in Tianjin, a city of more than 15 million about 70 miles southeast of Beijing, have been linked to one department store, adding to fears about rapid transmission in tightly clustered communities.

Of 102 confirmed cases in the city, at least 33 patients worked or shopped at a department store in the Baodi district, or had close contact with employees or customers, according to the Tianjin health authorities.

Officials estimated that 11,700 customers had visited the shopping complex during a period in late January. The authorities said that those customers would be quarantined, and that the store itself, which they did not identify, had been sealed and disinfected.

It was not immediately clear how the authorities had tracked the shoppers, but health officials in the city have put out alerts on social media and on state news outlets urging residents to contact the government if they visited the store recently. News reports also said residents had been asked at various checkpoints in the city if they had been there.”

www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html?0p19G=2870

Place marking.

Not really Dyrne. But on the plus side we can only afford to go away every 5 years or so, so there's no airports planned for this year!

Officials estimated that 11,700 customers had visited the shopping complex during a period in late January. The authorities said that those customers would be quarantined,
How is this even possible?! How can they know who those 11700 people are? I can't get my head round that!

Thanks @Lemon I think I'd been finding individual threads not the topic.

@TheABC

You are spot on re mortality levels. Basically it's overwhelm of the health services that leads to increased deaths.

C. 15-20% become 'severe' and require hospitalisation including oxygen. A source linked on previous threads estimated that the average hospital in the UK can only provide this to c. 270 cases at any one time. Any more than this and people won't be able to get the treatment they need.

From memory c. 5% become critical and need ventilation and if there is a big outbreak there won't be enough intensive care facilities to cater for them.

So basically - there will be a tipping point underneath which the mortality rate should be c. 1% (current estimate) but above which the mortality rate would rise.

@preponderings maybe credit card payments and cctv? I have no idea, doubt it would be possible here though!

Very surprised to see that local massive tesco was out of paracetamol & antibacterial hand gel today.
I feel like I'm all set, now. Just wait and see.

What did they say about lemon @Gammeldragz ?

Has anyone seen those visors that go over face masks ? I keep wondering what is the most hygienic way to remove protective equipment and whether to put it in bio hazard bags just in case ? Obviously when in a cluster or numbers went up

I also read about colour coded family towels. Which would be useful only in an outbreak situation. Speaking of washing would getting Napisan be good ?

It's interesting to read about a case deemed to be mild. It explains why people are up and around spreading it. It doesn't start flu with sudden temps, it looks like if this case is typical like a cold before the nose bit starts - that sore throat and icky feeling, before then hitting the lungs and getting high temps?

It's no wonder it's spreading so quickly. How often do we get a bit of a sore throat and a blah feeling that then turns out to be nothing... It would be easy to dismiss the symptoms as understandable hypochondria in a stressful time.

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30067-0/fulltext