DBennett: "I'm not sure you understand risk that well."
I think that's a bit unfair and I think my point demonstrates quite the opposite. It's pretty hard to find any event that has a single, entirely predictable causative outcome. And of course those exposures you list don't necessarily lead to bad outcomes - but they are, to varying degrees, correlated with them. We've all read stories of the person who smoked and lived to 100, but the general trend from the data is that smoking is correlated to higher rates of lung cancer. So if you smoke, you risk getting lung cancer. My point was, and it stands for lung cancer too, is that it's not true that if you smoke, you will get lung cancer - it's just a risk.
My point was the same in relation to alcohol consumption, namely to say that for people who are worried that they've had alcohol during pregnancy, as at least one poster was, that they shouldn't worry too much because the outcome isn't at all certain, precisely because we can't say with certainty that if you drink some alcohol your child will necessarily have FAS or learning problems or whatever. All we can say is it's more likely that they will have some negative effects of some kind, but we can't even predict the level to which they'll suffer them. Ie all we can say is that there is a risk of their child having problems which seems to increase with the amount of alcohol consumed (as, I think, does the possible severity of the problems). The more you drink, the greater the risk - so if you drank a little, you've run a small risk and it's more likely than not it will no discernible impact based on the bulk of current research.
I'm not sure how that shows I don't understand risk, but I'm open to having it explained to me .
Haoshiji - yep, that's exactly why I think women should try to avoid alcohol during pregnancy - drink none or drink a little - because the research shows it does mean you run the risk of your child having learning problems if you do. So we agree .
My point about real life examples sending a skewed message is that to form a well-supported view, one needs a large amount of data - more than anyone can get just from personal experience. That's my view, but I think you're right - we do all look around us for examples and this validly shapes our views too.
good to talk/type to you too.