Depressed Lefty red eye - The morning after the night before

[Nymphadora]

Hello

OMG. I slept till 11:30am. That is unheard of. Helped by the fact that my truly Darling Daughter was as quiet as a mouse and the lads are still in Italy.

Am rewarding DD with nice day out so won't be around much. Will read thread properly first.

I take it no change?

T4T
how are you, not seen you for ages. How's the puppy?daphne sends love and slobbers.

Let's face it, a large proportion of the UK public is THICK and swallows the r-wing press whole (and Sky News). We will have to spend a f3ew years explaining PR to them in big print leaflets and CBeebies-style programming before we have a hope of winning a PR referendum

I was almost hoping that the Labour-third-in-vote-but-first-in-seats scenario came about, because then all the right-wing thickos would finally understand what was wrong with the system.

Andrew Sparrow's live blog is good for updates. I have to work this w/e - it's going to be hard to concentrate.

I did laugh at Marina Hyde's description of Andrew Neil's boat as 'an Imbeciles Ball'.

Good points everyone, especially Policywonk with cbeebies style explanation of PR .

Onebat - that is a worrying scenario.

I think Clegg has definitely gone to the Tories first as the only possibly way of not alienating the right wing electorate. He is playing it canny and he does have a very democratic and principled party behind him.

This is also make or break for the Tories, I think this is the beginning of the end for them. It may not happen right now but they must know that Things Have Changed. (Which is why Murdoch, et al will play very dirty).

I think this is going to end up being not just about parliament but also about all those who woo the Tories - they will do everything they can to stop their party being relegated to history.

Minority Tory government increasingly looking like a pretty good outcome (as long as they don't get a majority next time).

As Policywonk says the public may not be ready for a Lib/Lab coalition brought together to bring about electoral reform. Also Gordon's relative unpopularity may play a role here (much as I like and respect him).

Also we need Labour to be seen as very very solid with no infighting, etc (bit of a loose cannon this I fear, although Tories have the same concern).

I found this comment very interesting from the LibDem Fed Exec site

"As a voter in Sheffield Hallam I think it crucial that Nick Clegg and the Lib ?Dem leadership team acknowledge that the Sheffield Hallam constituency was until quite recently a Lib-Dem/Conservative marginal. Being a Tory seat until 1997.

Nick will put his own seat at serious risk should he take the party into any coalition with the Conservative party. The vote for Nick, like that for his predecessor Richard Allan, has always included a significant and defining anti-Tory vote ? reflecting the distinctive socio economic features of our constituency.

Nick Clegg is in danger of alienating this support and thereby gifting his own parliamentary seat to the Tories in the next election ? unless of course Mr. Cameron is prepared to commit to electoral reform based on some form of proportional representation /single transferrable vote."

onebat - your scenario is too hideous to contemplate. I don't want to think about it.

Agree that Labour should hold onto GB.

Don't you think NC and DC must have had these conversations before now? The parties must have worked through every possible scenario - the LDs must have had an idea of what they would be prepared to compromise.

Interesting re Sheffield Hallam.

Yes, Labour fragmentation and some sort of bitter party leader struggle would be disastrous at this stage. They need to hold on to Gordon, who will probably come across very well in opposition.

Yes Beachcomber. The more I think about this LibCon deal, the more I think it won't happen (mind you I've been wrong about 100 times in the last 48 hours). Command and supply, maybe, but not a coalition.

will Labour be sensible enough to hold onto Gordon? I don't know. but they need to show a solid, united from in the face of a tory minority gov (if that's what happens).

out of interest, what happens if there is a minority tory gov and it's struggling, do the other parties get to call for a general election or would it be down to shiny dave to call it when he feels it's the best time for the tories?

argh front not from

Agree Labour must hang onto Gordon. I can't see a strong enough alternative and it would send a message of failure/willing to dump their man in order to get some power.

That and the fact that Gordon ROCKS - I think he will come into his own in a situation like this, he is going to be all principled, dignified and solid. My personal view is that the reason he will be able to come across this way is because he is sincere and in politics because he wants to serve the people and fight for fairness. Hameron is where he is due to being hugely privileged and the man his party thought must likely to appeal to 'the common people' (love that video). I'm not saying Hameron doesn't have any political skills, etc but he has let his party (and voters) down and put them at great danger.

I dunno, I think GB's got to go really. The electorate just hates him, in the main. Fair enough for him to stay on for six months or so, but in the medium term they need to bed in a new leader who doesn't make Middle England want to throw things at the television. He's a good guy in many ways, but his leadership has been electorally disastrous.

At a tangent - just remember, people, that despite the enormous differential in press support the electorate did not wholly swing Conservative.

I really do wonder if that is pertly down to the rise of social media. Which I know is teeny, tiny, but ... it's an interesting thought.

It was surprising how much of our local campaign utilised small, local social media sites.

The whole PR scenario is making my head explode.

But - bright side again - another good thing was that turn-out went up - just proving that people/we get engaged when they/we see they need to, when they/we are called to. Even if they/we voted for "the other side" .

A PR referendum might have that engaging effect. And it does seem that as people/we become engaged, we seek out information. So, maybe this is the era when we really could circumvent the mainstream, private-interest press.

I'm alarmed by what was floated on the other thread - Clegg being bought off with promise of PR for House of Lords/Upper House ... .

Beachcomber - this is what I was thinking about. There MUST be a lot of LD voters who would not vote for them again should a CON/LD pact happen. Then, should there be another election - these votes would be lost to the LD's, and they would likely go to Labour.

NC must feel like he is between a rock and a hard place.

Was reading an article in Guardian about DC trying to go it alone and fucking off The Queen.

I mean, Clegg MUST know that the Tories will never go for PR. I keep hold of this in my heart.

I don't have strong feelings about who is PM. Saying that though, I like Brown and think he has done a good job, but I think it is inevitable that he will go, particularly if a Lib/Lab coalition occurs.

The thing is, who else? Surely Harman and Milliband Number 1 are the only realistic options?

Who could be PM if Labour is the party?

Onebat - that's exactly what I've been arguing thinking will happen. I just can't see Hameron risking a lib-lab deal. Plus, some of the lib dem concessions he'll have to make actually get him out of a few tricky election promisses on ringfencing spending.

justabout - the news is saying that Gordon and Nick had a phone call in which Gordon was angry at Nick and shouted at him.