So who are you rootin' for at Makersfield?

[NEGUY82]

Just wondering who everyone hopes will win??

I'm hoping for a Burnham win but as long as it's not Kenyon I can live with it.

But you do acknowledge that looking at the bigger picture, an election is unlikely?

Politics has two modes in the UK, party and country. Labour members and unions will be dictating the path of the government if there is a change in leadership. But that is an issue common to left and right.

These kind of arguments are bit like “you should resign” chiefly because the other party would like to get rid of someone. That does not work in politics either, but it keeps the ball in the air.

The way the argument shrivels is simply that you get a popular leader and the numbers go up for your party. But you don’t throw yourself on your opponents sword.

That is a separate point and fairly, you identify something that is a sensitive point for Labour governments historically in a way that until Truss was just not an issue for the Conservatives.

But this is not mandate (which fairly is not the point in our system). It is whether Burnham is fiscally credible. And an election will not, in my view, fix that view for the markets who would take a view irrespective. This is what they did with Truss. Her mode or legitimacy with the wider electorate did not matter as much as her policies which were radical. Even then, she was removed and no election came.

Maybe Burnham will be a serious left wing radical that engages with the markets and they dislike him. Maybe that engenders political chaos. But our most recent example of market judgment on a PM and their economic policy shows the opposite. To me, markets are at least content with a change of PM, not an election to achieve it. This is part of the UK’s stability in its political system.

I’d go with possible but it’s not really the focus. First up is the by-election, then leadership contest. If AB wins the first the second will likely be a win for him.

Then see what happens, politics is in flux and what Labour never do is changing.

Reading bits of this thread is like observing the HoC guffawing or hooting or jeering. Awful to watch and to read too. I've probably been part of it at times I'm sure. Politics eh, brings out the childishness in people.

I saw an ad yesterday for a 'Marxist' event. With Corbyn and Sultana. Thank fck they are nowhere near Makerfield. Although how similar is Burnham to Corbyn? Not far off I'm sure.

I agree with much of what you have said, but I think nothing is off the table when dealing with a much inflated male ego.
I stand by my pp this morning where I said that an Andy Burnham win increases the chance of an early election.

Well of course hes going to say that. He's hardly going to be saying "I know I'm a bit shit, but if you could just bear with, Andy will soon be riding in from the North to save us all" is he?
Burnham hasn't yet won Makerfield. If he doesn't Starmer will need to carry on or fight lower level rivals. It would hardly help if he'd publicly positioned himself as Burnham's castellan.

If Reform do win Makerfield Starmer’s woes won’t be over. Labour will panic more about what to do re Reform.

Agreed.

I don't think Reform will win Makerfield. I think their choice of candidate was weak. They wanted someone from the area, but he's just not articulate enough. All the other candidates speak better than him and could hold their own against Burnham. Kenyon was a wasted opportunity.

They seem to have made a tactical error in having Kenyon fight it on the 'strength' of himself as a person, with all the plucky plumber local lad guff, rather than as a representative of all Reform stands for.
There is little evidence to show Reform supporters vote for the person, as we see by the election of many individuals who can barely string together a sentence.
I saw some interviews in Makerfield and when one man was asked who he'd be voting for he actually said "Nigel Farage".
These votes are obviously in the bag, and even a half wit like Kenyon couldn't put them off.
However, for the nearly there but need convincing contigent, Kenyon bumbling his way through anything relating to the national policies people care about, coming off message to condemn the violence Farage had incited, saying "well that would be someone else's job to worry about" when asked to explain how Reform would recruit more police officers, was worse than useless. And that's before we even get to the misogyny.

So it looks as if Burnham will win. But doesn't he really need to win quite decisively in this constituency - to back up his own claims? He wins but only because Restore take a lot of votes from Reform. Or, there is a very low turnout because the voters are not enthused?

What he does articulate is negative. They needed to vet him far more carefully

Yes, they did. I think they probably had other options but were burned by not winning Gorton and Denton and felt the local element was the most important.

Yes but he is such a poor choice. And the party was competitive. BTW I would never vote for him but you do not want a candidate that can be chased down the street saying “why should women vote for you if you say they can’t drive”. That’s not politics, it’s a cartoon which has stuck

Burnham.

Ideally his vote share will exceed that of Reform and Restore combined.

This is what interests me - the different outcomes. I think he has to win impressively to be significant and not just "a naughty boy".

Really not. Got a quote 2 months before she came into power with a broker. Due to work circumstances had to delay it by 4 months. Same broker best deal for same mortgage cost £350 a month more. Happened to 1000s of people. Google or any sort of basic understanding of the economy will help you.

WooHoo, Waspi here.

Good luck with that