So who are you rootin' for at Makersfield?

[NEGUY82]

Just wondering who everyone hopes will win??

I'm hoping for a Burnham win but as long as it's not Kenyon I can live with it.

This was the same tactic that Wes Streeting met and it is not a bad one. Labour I think have only had one coronation in office and that was Gordon Brown because no one else would stand. Otherwise the Labour Party system is strong in elections being required, and a leader’s legitimacy is established from that.

Don't do what? Call a GE?

Sorry I do think that the idea of an imminent election is for the birds. There is no political advantage in it for the leader whoever that is.

Put him in as leader.

You were suggesting a visit from the men in grey suits not long ago, now you're saying Starmer will stay and fight a contest. Make your mind up.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer thought he could win a contest. Its almost comical.

But we live in Halisham’s elective dictatorship. What you think should happen will not happen. The Labour Party will regard Burnham as legitimate if he elected to their system. Now voters may punish that in 2029, but there little else to suggest what you think should happen will happen

I think he’ll try to stay, like Thatcher and Johnson did. In any case Streeting will fire the starting pistol on a contest. He reckons he’s got 81+ letters of support already.

That’s a good article and written by someone who knows what the issues are. Yes it will be the usual Labour blood oath politics. But I think Starmer is the loser from that and it will hasten his departure

Let's see, but it has happened before. They get a bounce in the polls and decide to go for it to get a new mandate from the public. Brown chickened out, May went for it. Either way, its the beginning of the end when they start changing leaders.

Don’t be sorry. On its current performance there is more than enough left wing Labour MPs, who like their seats. It will not happen, simply because there is zero political advantage. And political advantage is something that all politicians, whether left or right, are keen to keep

I just hope future generations find a better way to do politics, if indeed politics needs to be done at all.
I think the fact that parliamentary democracy is considered the best system we've come up with thus far says it all about the human race.

May’s decision is now roundly seen as politically incoherent. I never understood why she took the risk. Brown was risk adverse. But on any account, the polls for Labour are abysmal, but the majority is huge. If you can find me a comparable situation in British political history where a leader did this, then it might be a more serious point.

What happened to May would give Burnham pause for thought, I would imagine.

Well seeing as you won't answer my questions, you'll forgive me for not answering yours.
Can't help but think you might be a Reform voter anyway. Perhaps we should give each other a swerve from now on.

I think you're downplaying the importance of a mandate, and legitimacy.
Labour MPs want changes from Burnham that they do not have a mandate for. This is what got Starmer into trouble so early on.

And I think you don’t see this with as clear an eye as you could. Mandate is US presidential politics.

Labour MPs are not like Tories. They use their admittedly rather Byzantine electoral process together with the unions to make clear what they expect their leader to deliver. They will do that and inevitably pressure Burnham for their preferred policy as the cost of their vote.

But the election for them solves any issue of whether Burnham has the right to lead and what he prioritises for Labour.

You are fairly pointing to the democratic issue where the party leader becomes PM by default. But political parties then pivot to their electoral position with the whole country, where Labour is doing badly. They will not vote like turkeys for Christmas. Burnham will be expected to fix it.

The wider voter may not agree. But there is no mechanism to change this, nor any incentive. Therefore it will not happen.

It means that 2029 has a different flavour if Burnham arrives. And no one yet knows what he might do. But what we can say, and is more likely based on an understanding of UK politics, our constitution and precedent across left and right, is an election does not happen immediately after Burnham may be elected. None of the numbers support it.

Posters said Labour weren’t like the Tories so they’d keep the same leader. Looks like they won’t keep him.